South Australia has the highest share of gas generation by region in Australia’s National Electricity Market, thanks to having neither coal nor hydro. There are also important inter state flows mostly with Victoria but soon much more with NSW.
Over the past 30 days, batteries are now on average delivering higher peak morning supply than gas. Gas is still twice as large as batteries in the evening but it’s losing share.
As it loses share its role as a price setter will also diminish. South Australian batteries are mostly short duration so it seems they like to cycle twice a day.
Where South Australia leads, I contend the rest of the NEM will follow.
In winter I am well aware things will be different. But looking at winter is looking backwards. Winter tells you about the system we used to have.
Spring and now Autumn tells us about the system that we are building. When we look at the NEM in 5 years time it will look more like South australia in the past 30 days than NSW last Winter. Anyhow that’s what I think.
Batteries are a complete game changer. I mean we knew that all along but now it’s getting proved on a weekly basis. Those blue sections will grow and grow and don’t forget the unmeasurable household battery impact.
It’s good news that less and less gas is needed.
