Author: David Leitch
The splitting of the federal government energy and environment policies marks the end of the best chance for bipartisan approach to climate change.
Both AGL and Origin are earning more than cost of capital, but so they should be at this point in the cycle.
The cost to decarbonise the electricity system is lower than the cost of replacing the existing power system like for like. Think about it: that is a gift.
Australian Federal Government
Coal
Governments
Any new coal generator will force the early closure of another
Anything deviating from transitioning to a reliable, firmed renewable grid will end up costing Australians and Australian business more in the long run.
A NEG is worth having only if the ambition can be (easily) lifted, otherwise it's worse than useless, locking in a do-nothing policy for a decade.
Management at a speculative gold mining company would blush at some of the outrageous claims made in the modelling the ESB “leans heavily on” to justify the NEG.
The NEG will produce just 1 GW - $2bn of new investment in 10 years. It is barely credible. Perhaps the ESB should be renamed the Energy Insecurity Board.
Markets
Other Good Stuff
Renewables
Storage
Where’s Waldo? The wobbly assumptions underpinning the NEG
ESB price assumptions don't make sense, and no company would make such a crucial decision based on such flimsy evidence.
AGL is the largest generator in the NEM. You would think this would make its share price sensitive to electricity prices. And you would be correct.
Australian Federal Government
Governments
Markets
News & Commentary
Why the ESB must release its agenda driven modelling
The modelling for the National Energy Guarantee appears agenda driven, and should be released before the COAG meeting for the sake of clarity.