The state of Victoria has released its long-awaited Gas Substitution Roadmap, outlining the start of a momentous shift from the use of gas, removing the obligation of new homes to connect to the gas network and paving the way for all electric homes.
The roadmap released on the weekend notes that many consumers believe gas is both cheap and clean. It points out it is not clean, despite the heavy marketing of “natural” gas from the fossil fuel industry, and it is rapidly losing its lustre as a “low carbon” fuel. And now it is expensive too.
“Gas is no longer the cheap fuel it once was,” energy minister Lily D’Ambrosio said in a statement.
“We know renewables are the cheapest form of energy and we’re making it easier for Victorian households and businesses to go all electric with more choice and more support.
“Victorians have been at the mercy of private gas companies for too long, it’s time to put gas on the back-burner as we help Victorians cut energy bills and halve emissions by 2030.”
Victoria already has the country’s only legislated emissions reduction target, of 50 per cent by 2030, and is aiming for a 50 per cent share of renewables in its grid, although the new blueprint released by the Australian Energy Market Operator points to an even quicker shift and assumes its three remaining brown coal generators will be closed by 2032.
The roadmap out of gas notes that Victoria has the highest dependence on gas for heating, cooking and hot water in Australia, and gas accounts for 17 per cent of its total emissions, even though it only accounts for 8.5 per cent of electricity generation.
“Until recently, fossil gas was considered a lower carbon transition fuel,” the roadmap notes. “However, the transition of the electricity grid to 100 per cent renewable is well underway and accelerating.
“This transition will involve guiding an orderly decarbonisation of the gas system over the long term.”
It starts with a focus on existing technologies such energy efficiency and renewable electricity, and particularly rooftop solar, and is then looking to those technologies that will play a larger role in the future, such as hydrogen and bio methane.
Incentives for all residential gas products will be phased out in 2023, new incentives to move away from gas will be introduced, and the current planning requirement for new developments to be connected to gas will be removed.
The government says an all-electric new home with solar panels can enjoy annual electricity bills as low as $850 a year, and less if a battery is also installed. This is significantly lower than the average annual energy bill of $2,660 for a new home with gas and electricity.
And energy experts say it is cleaner too.
“The direct combustion emissions from gas are about half that from brown coal – if you are making electricity,” notes Dylan McConnell, from the University of Melbourne.
“But this (roadmap) is largely about replacing gas for heating in your house with electricity – which results in less emissions if using a good heat pump, even if using brown coal.”
This is reinforced by the government’s own modelling, which notes the grid that supplies additional demand from electric homes still produces less emissions than the gas use it displaces, even if no new renewable capacity was added to the grid.
The gas network lobby is, naturally, not pleased, and argues that switching to bio methane and hydrogen into its networks is cheaper than electricity.
“The best and least-cost way to achieve net-zero is to repurpose the existing gas pipelines and networks that supply these homes to provide clean renewable hydrogen and biomethane and develop our renewable electricity grid,” it says,
Environmental groups are frustrated that the transition is not quick enough, and some argue that no new gas connections should be allowed.
“This falls disastrously short of tackling the issue of gas with the critical urgency required to avoid climate catastrophe and safeguard the Victorian public from escalating energy bills,” said Freja Leonard, the No More Gas campaigner with Friends of the Earth in Melbourne.
“It’s great to see the state government offering some support for households to switch off gas in favour of renewable energy.
“Raising housing standards to a 7 star minimum and ending the requirement for new developments to be connected to gas are a couple of baby steps in the right direction.
“However, at a time when Victorians are paying twice as much for gas as we did last year and the world is feeling the impacts of climate change we need to stop a single new gas connection being made and support Victorian homes and businesses to rapidly move to an all-electric, post gas energy system.”
Environment Victoria also said the policy is a “step towards ending Victoria’s dependence on expensive, polluting gas”, but lacks urgency.
Others were more complimentary. “Superb climate and energy leadership in the face of the concurrent fiscal, climate and energy crises,” tweeted Tim Buckley, the founder of Climate Energy Finance.
