Two-thirds of Aussie drivers will own an EV by 2028, Jaguar says

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Jaguar says two thirds of Australians could own an EV within 10 years, with millennials more likely to buy one than baby boomers, and men more likely than women.

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Almost two-thirds of Aussies could own an electric vehicle within 10 years, predicts luxury car maker Jaguar, a figure that is significantly more bullish about the uptake of EVs than other analysis.

Jaguar commissioned a survey as part of its ‘Driving Australia Forward’ report, the findings of which indicates that one in five Australians of driving age think they will buy an electric car within the next two years.

That figure jumps to almost 84 per cent of buyers who say they’d like to own an EV at some point in their lives.

This is a very optimistic outlook considering that right now EVs represent something like 0.2 per cent of total sales, and a recently survey by Roy Morgan (see table below) suggests that only 55.7 per cent of Australians are seriously considering buying some form of electrified vehicle.

Other forecasts such as Bloomberg New Energy Finance predict that 40 per cent of light vehicles will be electric by 2040, while the Australian Energy Market Operator recently doubled its forecast, predicting half of all cars would be electric by around the same time.

If Jaguar’s forecasts are correct, this means Australian car dealers could be selling an average of 1.2 million EV or PHEV cars per year over the next 10 years, around double what is anticipated by AEMO.

Who is going to buy all these electric vehicles?

According to Jaguar, the most likely buyer for an EV is a millennial male, with 43 per cent of millennial respondents saying they wanted an EV, compared to only 34 per cent of baby boomers.

Men were also more likely to want to purchase an EV as their next car, the survey found, at 42 per cent compared to 27 per cent of women. About 38 per cent of people surveyed said they wanted an EV “a lot”.

However, the cost of EVs remains a key factor, as Kevin Nicholls, marketing director at Jaguar Land Rover Australia admits.

“While Aussies clearly see the benefits of electric vehicles they’re still hesitant about the price – 75 per cent said that if electric vehicles cost the same as their petrol equivalent, it would be their next car purchase,” he says.

Australia is dragging some 10 years behind the rest of the world in electric vehicle uptake, many surveys suggest, largely because of a lack of EV policy and purchase incentives. Even when policies such as emissions standards are proposed, they are shouted down as a form of carbon tax.

In May, Jaguar called upon the Australian government to provide the local car industry with a clear path to follow to help boost the uptake of EVs.

“Australians are ready for electric vehicles, and the industry is too – now we need the federal government to do their bit and present their framework,” Nicholls told RenewEconomy.

Jaguar is about to introduce into Australia its electric i-Pace, which Nicholls says will be available in Jaguar dealerships in November this year. The luxury SUV has a starting price of around $119,000, plus on-road costs.

Many Australian consumers will wait for the arrival of more affordable models such as global bestseller Nissan Leaf, and similar models such as the Hyundai Ioniq and Kia Niro, and the Tesla Model 3.

But even cheaper models will be needed for a mass uptake. RE asked Jaguar if they had plans to bring out something to fit the budget of most Australians, but they declined to comment.

Jaguar did say, however, that education and public awareness were key factors in future purchases, with the number of people saying they would likely buy an EV jumping by 8 per cent after learning more about how good EVs can be for the environment.

Another report has suggested that the uptake of EVs in Australia is also hindered by dealers’ reluctance to sell them, often leaving electric vehicles completely out of sales pitches, due to lack of training for staff to sell them and because they will see reduced profits due to less maintenance and repairs for EVs.

AEMO’s newly released Integrated System Plan predicts a moderate uptake of electric vehicles in its core “neutral” scenario,” with 10 per cent of the vehicle fleet being electrified by 2030. It says at this level, vehicle charging is uncoordinated, and primarily occurs overnight.

 

That forecast – slow, neutral and fast – was based on forecasts prepared by Energeia.

The sensitivity of that modelling was highlighted in a report presented by the Clean Energy Finance Corp and the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, which suggested that with incentives, uptake would surge.

As this graph shows, the proportion of EVs in the overall fleet could jump to around 25 per cent by 2030, and near enough to 100 per cent by 2050, with the right incentive. Even moderate intervention would deliver more than 90 per cent by that date.

BloombergNEF predicts that around 40 per cent of sales will be electric by 2040, creating a significant “behind the motor” resource of battery storage that could be deployed for the electricity grid as well.

This uptake is likely to be accompanied by significant increases in rooftop solar and battery storage, and a shift to consumer-driven energy outcomes, rather than a grid dependent only on centralised assets.

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75 Comments
  1. Joe 1 year ago

    Our ‘EV Champion’, the Kelly, will have another stroke with this story.

    • Hettie 1 year ago

      Oh goodie.

    • MaxG 1 year ago

      hopefully :))

  2. Chris Jones 1 year ago

    I’ve long predicted that every new car sold in 2025 will be a plug-in. Could be sooner if the Feds take note…

  3. Malcolm Scott 1 year ago

    Analysis elsewhere says the male female balance will change with EVs.

    • Peter Campbell 1 year ago

      A hundred years ago, EVs were more popular with women. You didn’t need strength to hand crank them. Instead they turned on with a switch. Ironically, it was the addition of an electric motor and a battery to an internal combustion engine (ICE) car that removed the EV’s advantage for women. The same ingredients configured differently could have been plug-in series hybrids a hundred years ago.

  4. DugS 1 year ago

    Those growth curves are way too shallow, once the awareness of EV’s becomes more mainstream it will be a stampede. A big influence on people’s thinking will be the second hand market. Once you switch to EV there is no going back so there will be a situation where everyone wants to flog off their ICE car but a flooded second hand market will devalue it to scrap value. Who is going to buy a new ICE car when it becomes worthless the minute you drive it off the lot?
    Fuel stations and ICE repair businesses will be similarly worthless, remember what happened to the video rental stores, vanished almost overnight. So once we get on the EV gravy train there is no reverse or slow lane. It is going to be shockingly and unimaginably fast and will be denied by the industry right up to the moment they become obsolete. Hang on to your hats, it’s going to be a wild ride.

    • john 1 year ago

      As soon as you buy a vehicle it is worth $5000 less as soon as you leave the car yard.
      I do not think this will happen with EV.

      • Peter Campbell 1 year ago

        I think EVs will depreciate quickly as everyone assumes the next model will be much better and it takes people a while to become confident in battery longevity. 5 years ago I bought a near new, ex-demo iMiEV for half its original asking price. Earlier this year, I bought a four year old Holden Volt for less than half its original price.

        • john 1 year ago

          Interesting.
          Perhaps that is because we are on the cusp of new technology and not mature.

        • The_Lorax 1 year ago

          I bought my Outlander PHEV for $20k less than retail price. It was new, had sat in the car yard unloved for 18 months. I’m anticipating massive depreciation but I really like the car.

          • Ross 1 year ago

            So did I. $20k under retail. The vehicle was a demonstrator. Best car purchase I have ever made. Car runs on sunshine while I’m in town. I rarely buy petrol. So smooth. Instant power. Effortless takeoff. Once you have tasted of the pleasures of an EV you’ll never switch back to a bucket of bolts.

          • Ian 1 year ago

            How ridiculously simple and true BEV “runs on sunshine”.

            This mantra should be placed on every billboard and TV ad.

          • The_Lorax 1 year ago

            I manage to trickle-charge mine from my rooftop PV around 80% of the time.

          • Coley 1 year ago

            Wish that was the case here, 2nd hand outlanders are still on the wrong side of 20£k.

          • The_Lorax 1 year ago

            We’re pretty backward here. Maybe there’s an opportunity in exporting used PHEVs to the UK from Oz?

      • Ian 1 year ago

        That’s unfortunately, wishful thinking, as Peter says , change will happen very quickly, next year’s BEV will be better than this year’s. This has not really been the case so much with ICE vehicles, as far as the drive chain goes, that aspect is very much perfect already. Manufacturers have had to improve on body shape and electronic goodies to make this year’s car better than last year’s. PHEV could have offered them this innovation advantage but BEV will over-take that technology. Pity in my view, as the hybrid technology is so elegant, that’s a side track to be sure. Anyway, as experience grows with BEV, lots of very smart people will come up with very useful ideas and this technology will advance very rapidly. The multiple torch batteries that make up Tesla’s battery pack may look ludicrous in a few years time. Will it be solid state batteries, rechargeable aluminium or some other innovation that will leapfrog us forward. What we can be sure of is that current BEV offerings will be primitive compared with future ones.

    • Hettie 1 year ago

      Sound good. Bring it on.

    • Ian 1 year ago

      Whatever type of car you buy, second hand value is disappointing. People buy according to a number of variables but the chief amongst these is price. In the past you might have been prepared to pay a premium for automatic over the manual version or for the extra gizmos. The option now is to pay extra for PHEV or BEV. What others have posted regarding their experience with BEV, they are willing to pay extra for that experience, and obviously for the environmental thing, yes, always the environmental factor that’s important, no? Manufacturers control the price of vehicles, and they use pricing to affect people’s choices. Right now they are still pushing their fossil objectives and those that feel compelled to go electric have to suck this up. My gut instinct tells me that the traditional marquees are still testing the market, they don’t have the battery resources to go fully electric, and they are scared to commit to BEV. The narrative is that Tesla is driving the BEV movement and their success will cause an avalanche of change. Fortunately for us, other more progressive and farsighted governments can see the light and have started to put in laws and incentives to promote this change, especially the Europeans and Chinese who are most vulnerable to belligerent oil suppliers. We are in the same vulnerable boat as a nation, having hardly any oil stores but our government makes a decent pay-cheque out of liquid fuels, and we are so manufacturing-averse that we can’t even make clothe’s pegs. Nothing to drive official policies regarding uptake of electric vehicles, alls the shame, as we could have a second chance at a decent manufacturing industry. With every passing month, the opportunity to create near-home manufacturing jobs fades for us. WTF, that’s too bad, let’s move on.

      • Hettie 1 year ago

        Take heart, Ian. The Coalition’s days are numbered. If Labor campaigns on climate action and power prices, restoring benefits and Medicare, curbing housing prices, they will be a shoo in.
        Then we should see some action.

  5. Jon 1 year ago

    I’m 52 YO make, our next car will be an EV, linked with enough solar to charge it.

    • Greg 1 year ago

      I can only encourage you! I drive Nissan Leaf and it is the best ting I ever bought! So quiet, smooth, luxurious! I too have solar and a Tesla battery and i drive the car 100% with the power of the sun.

    • Lawson Earl 1 year ago

      That’s fantastic! You won’t regret it! There is plenty of sunshine just waiting to power your car.

  6. john 1 year ago

    Just take note as soon as solid state battery technology is developed suddenly Electric Vehicles will be the norm.
    There is a lot of Intense research going on in this area.
    Yes I know a bit like Fusion however I do feel the amount of research will come up with a usable battery system then at low cost large capacity and low cost Electric Vehicles will be the norm.

    • Coley 1 year ago

      Nowt like fusion, SS batteries will arrive within a couple of years, unlike fusion and a cure for cancer that have been promised to be here in the ‘next five years’😄
      Though, hopefully the cancer cure looks like finally arriving in the same time scale as SS batteries.

  7. Gyrogordini 1 year ago

    Jag is closer to the mark, looking at some countries overseas experience. Despite the gutless Feds being unable to tighten emission limits, decarbonise energy generation or consumption, and showing minimal interest in joining the rest of the OECD (minus the intransigent Trump), we will do this regardless. Absent overall policy, we need to build the comprehensive national recharging network, broaden popular awareness of EVs, and press our State and local gomints to make it happen. A wider range of available vehicles would help…

  8. Ren Stimpy 1 year ago

    Why would anyone want to own a car (“may cause a decline in car ownership”) when they can travel from one door to another door in a competitive-on-costs (particularly on fuel costs) model of autonomous urban transport.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transportation_as_a_Service

    • Hettie 1 year ago

      I know that’s Tony Seba’s prediction, but the Aussie love affair with the car could be long lasting.
      Only time will tell.

      • Ren Stimpy 1 year ago

        That’s the future baby!

      • Coley 1 year ago

        If you live in a city then owning a car may become a waste of time, but many (Me certainly) don’t want to live in a city and for us a means of transport remains a necessity, the current focus on AU and Uber/car sharing etc is a worry.

      • Ren Stimpy 1 year ago

        The younger generations in the cities and nearby regions are less welded to the concept of car ownership. If they had cheap autonomous door-to-door transport available to them car ownership would simply not be an issue.

        In outer-regions and rural areas yes car ownership is still important and probably always will be.

    • Ian 1 year ago

      Hopefully most people in the world will follow this prediction, all the more road space for me and my type to use the highways!

      • Ren Stimpy 1 year ago

        Just don’t expect to find a car park at a shopping centre or in the CBD. With TaaS most of the land occupied by large car parks will be put to better use.

        • Hettie 1 year ago

          Unlike our local taxis, autonomous cars will have no lovely drivers to help old ladies load their shopping into the car, or unload it at home.
          Many things come at a price.

          • Ren Stimpy 1 year ago

            While the meter is running!

          • Hettie 1 year ago

            Actually, no. They don’t start the meter until loaded and ready to go, and don’t unload until after I’ve paid. Which is why I say they are lovely.

          • Ren Stimpy 1 year ago

            They make an exception for you because you are bright and lovely. Pity for the other bitter old taxi users.In any event, taxi’s are SUCH a rip off.

          • Hettie 1 year ago

            Thank you Ren, especially as I have been sharpish with you a few times.
            Actually they don’t. This is standard practice in this town, and happened from my very first trip after the car died, before anyone knew me from a bar of soap.
            Now, of course, I have chats with most, am known, and know them by name. All very friendly and sociable. Love it.

          • Ren Stimpy 1 year ago

            Yes and I appreciate it. There’s nothing we city boys like more than country girls being sharpish with us, a few times.You say you have had chats with most, but does that include the 23 out of 24 million people who don’t live in a country town?

          • Hettie 1 year ago

            No, you nutter!
            Most of the taxi drivers in Armidale

          • Ren Stimpy 1 year ago

            Ah, now I see.

          • Ren Stimpy 1 year ago

            Statistically speaking – meh?

  9. The_Lorax 1 year ago

    I’d be astonished if there was an affordable (sub $35k) EV with decent range available in Australia in five years. A change of government might help, but we are the most anti-EV market in the developed world. We’ll definitely see EVs get to 50% market share across most of Europe within 10 years, and perhaps North America too, but not here.

    • Roger Brown 1 year ago

      Renault Zoe ?

      • The_Lorax 1 year ago

        It’s $47k AUD before on-road costs for a micro car. In California you can have an Ioniq for $20k USD after subsidies.

        • Roger Brown 1 year ago

          Won’t get any Subsidies from the Federal Coal party ! Ioniq car is a long range car !

    • Ferris B 1 year ago

      In 5 years you will be astonished, I have no doubt at all.

      • The_Lorax 1 year ago

        The Zoe is ~$50k for a micro car, the Ioniq and Leaf 2.0 (still not here) probably close to $60k. The Model 3, Kona and Niro EVs (still not here) $60k+. So we’d need to see a $20k price reduction in 5 years, probably 4 because even the current generation EVs won’t be in Aussie showrooms for another 12 months. FWIW, my definition of an affordable EV that really sells in big numbers in Australia is a Corolla-sized car with a 400km range for under $35k. It don’t dispute that it will happen in other markets, just not here.

        • Ferris B 1 year ago

          As I say in 5 years time you will be astonished, anyone not selling a sub 35k Corolla size car with 400km EV range will be losing market share rapidly in 5 years time.

  10. Roger Brown 1 year ago

    I saw my first Real estate Agent driving a Tesla X or the 3 today . Sales must have be good for him .

    • David Blundell 1 year ago

      It would be a lease.

      • Roger Brown 1 year ago

        When I sold my Mother’s house , the agent said it’s only $32K + GST !

  11. Pete 1 year ago

    As an owner of an Outlander PHEV that I bought near-new, the concept of PHEV’s has huge potential in our continent. The car review sites get this car wrong because of the circumstances they test it. One example had no off-street parking to charge it so talked it down. Another does a comparison with a diesel with a 100/50km rural/urban drive and concludes the diesel is cheaper. I don’t believe these are representative of the ‘majority’ medium sized SUV customer. Most of us have kids, off street parking, do school drop off and live in urban areas where we work. I go a month between fuel stops, 45L tank, and don’t follow the price cycles anymore. Just did an intercity drive and overtaking was fine. Worth considering for those in the market now, not in 2025.

    • Ren Stimpy 1 year ago

      Sure, but in 2025 your argument is rooted, as technology/progress takes over. Let me guess you are not a surfer?

      • Pete 1 year ago

        You can plug a hair dryer into the latest model so there are no more excuses for surfers not to wash their hair. 😉

        • Ren Stimpy 1 year ago

          But nothing gives that ‘body and bounce’ like sand and seaweed.

    • Coley 1 year ago

      Still a real ‘EV’range of 25 miles for the outlander makes it viable for city driving, but for real distances (and towing) its not practicable.

      • Pete 1 year ago

        1500kg towing capacity. Sure it’d mostly be on petrol but I and I think most people who use trailers regularly wouldn’t buy this car. I use roof racks nowadays and remove them when not required and stick them on a a shelf. Just drove interstate with it and it was fine for overtaking and quiet except for kids in the back. Saved the battery for the urban drive at the far end. Tank still shows full since I filled up 2 weeks ago when I returned. But I agree that like all cars it’s not the solution for everyone, but it can reduce the petrol use by around 70% for a big portion of the population and more practical consideration of what most people buying this class of car need in car reviews would highlight the benefit.

  12. Greg 1 year ago

    Driving an EV myself, I have become really used to the quiet, smooth feel of it and something very odd has started happening to me – I have become very aware of how noisy and rattling most cars on the road are – like looking back at the 20th Century from, say, 2050… and I find myself chuckling at how primitive petrol cars are/used to be…

    • Lawson Earl 1 year ago

      For sure. I find myself in the same situation. We have an EV and a PHEV in our fleet right now, with a Model 3 AWD on the way (I’m in the USA). There’s no way I’ll go back to a gasoline or a diesel vehicle… we even look for electric cars to rent when we’re on vacation.

  13. N Page 1 year ago

    Why does NZ have EVs and we don’t?? Because Murdoch hates EVs despite they run on coal. Go figure

    • Hettie 1 year ago

      And because Abbott and Kelly and the rest of the RWNJs.

      • Coley 1 year ago

        What’s ……sorry, figured it out…..right wing nut jobs?

        • Hettie 1 year ago

          Correct.

    • charles frogg 1 year ago

      Because in Australia we drive shorter distances. In NZ if you have to travel more than 32 kilometers to work you usually shift house to live closer to where you work and the distances travelled in NZ are huge compared to Australia and as NZ has huge oil fields and coal mines they can afford to buy electric cars unlike Australia which lacks any energy or mineral reserves.

  14. David Blundell 1 year ago

    Jaguar says 2/3rds of Australians will be driving an EV within 10 years, lol. Jaguar has no idea about Australia and it shows in their sales figures for that country. What absolute rubbish, I can assure the Jaguar brains that came up with these figures, ya dream’n!

    • Ian 1 year ago

      Maybe they know something we don’t. Car buyers in Australia are price sensitive, no doubt about that. They do buy a shite-tonne of cars though, over a million a year for a population only 25 times that amount. We do know that marquees are not shy to charge far more for the battery- privilege, and if you were to knock off the price gouging component of BEV, they would actually be very cost competitive.

      The limiting factor to the roll-out of BEV manufacturing is the manufacturing capacity of batteries. Building factories for batteries is straight forward but costs quite a bit and needs confidence for the necessary investment. That confidence will build and then go exponential , At that point most,if not all, cars will be made electric, not only in Australia but absolutely everywhere.

  15. palmz 1 year ago

    ‘one in five Australians of driving age think they will buy an electric car within the next two years.’

    I would suggest this is a misquote or they were not thinking when they were asking the questions. If i remember right our car fleet is what at an average of 12 years old?

    that would ether mean cars sales are going to boom in the next two years or most, maybe even close to all will be an EV as they reported.

    Sadly I have my doubts, I do hope i am wrong!

    • Hettie 1 year ago

      Not certain, but I think that 12 years is more likely the average lifespan of cars in Aus, not the average age.
      Makes a big difference.
      That ICE car bought new today will likely be junked in 2030, after changing hands a couple of times, and the original buyer might go EV in 2020, or 2022.
      Most fleet cars are replaced after 2 years or 60,000 km, so the notion that 1 car in 5 will be EV in 2 years might be a little optimistic, but not very.

  16. Coley 1 year ago

    Forget Tesla, the Leaf could be a game changer in Oz, a few solar panels on the garage roof and your dry climate?
    Once over the initial PP, free driving for life😄👍

    • charles frogg 1 year ago

      Do the batteries last forever???Great news must be the only electrical apparatus that lasts for over ten years and usually five years for continually cycled batteries. Looks like there is no limit for free everything now that batteries and solar panels are the corner stone of our energy supply.

      • Hettie 1 year ago

        Croak on, Froggy. You’re arguing from a false premise, and I am pretty sure you know it.
        Even in EV technology there is no magic pudding, but Li ion batteries do not suddenly die after X years. They are guaranteed to retain 80%,90% capacity after a certain number of cycles, and the evidence is that the slow rate of deterioration that demonstrates, – 1%,1.5% per year, will continue for several more years, after which they can be repurposed for static use. Storing your excess solar output, perhaps.

  17. Jason Panosh 1 year ago

    So, is Jag going to start building DC charging infrastructure? That’s the key missing piece for us. The Leaf is great, the fact I can’t charge when I go anywhere is not so great. I can’t see the i-Pace changes that for me, I’ll still be stuck. It’s a very easy drive in Australia to do 1,000km per day. A 500km trip to the snow, beach or interstate is typical for a lot of people. The ONLY EV you can do those trips in right now is a Tesla, unless you have many hours and days available to make the slow 240V AC charging.

  18. charles frogg 1 year ago

    Cannot wait to buy my first electric car but worry when it stops on the highway during my trip to the coast for a holiday. When the NRMA truck arrives and the mechanic tries to jump start the ECM by attaching the leads to the positive and sink terminals and gives it a 100 amp shock to start it going again while hitting any visible relay with a hammer gives me nightmares.

  19. phillyc 1 year ago

    Once the BEV reach near price parity to ICE vehicles there will be a stampede. Near price parity for me would be 3 years of fuel and servicing costs.

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