Big Oil struggles with speed of renewable energy transition

Last year, Big Oil made a major play against Big Coal – attempting to accelerate the exit of coal fired generation from the global energy system in a move that was seen as a major strategic shift ahead of the Paris climate conference.

soilar veefilNow, after Paris produced a surprisingly strong call to cap global warming as low as 1.5°C, Big Oil is shifting uncomfortably amidst a major push for the uptake of renewable energy, and to push oil and gas out of the system as quickly as possible in the search of zero net emissions.

This week, several of the Big Oil majors have faced intense scrutiny from shareholders, leading investors and activists over their climate change credentials and their risk of stranded assets. Their response has betrayed their marketing efforts.

“We cannot do it overnight (transition to renewables) because it could mean the end of the company,” Shell chief executive Ben van Beurden said at the annual general meeting on Wednesday.

And shareholders agreed, with 97 per cent voting againsta resolution to invest profits from fossil fuels to become a renewable energy company. Instead,  an Beurden said the oil industry would need to spend up to $1 trillion a year in oil and gas.

“If collectively we find a way to stay within the 2 degree (Celsius limit), we will still need significant investment in oil and gas…I am talking about up to a trillion dollars every year,” he said.

Over in Texas, Rex Tillerson, the boss of oil giant ExxonMobil was also getting a grilling from shareholders, but was being just as intransigent, the Guardian reported.

Tillerson said cutting oil production was “not acceptable for humanity” as he fought off shareholders’ and activists’ attempts to force the company to fully acknowledge the impact of climate change and to take more action to address it.

Tillerson also argued that oil and gas would provide 60 per cent of the world’ss energy needs in 2040, and would need to invest trillions to do that.

He said Exxon had invested $US7 billion in green technology, but claimed that the science and technology had not yet achieved the breakthroughs needed to compete with fossil fuels.

“Until we have those, just saying ‘turn the taps off’ is not acceptable to humanity,” he said. “The world is going to have to continue using fossil fuels, whether they like it or not.”

Chevron also came under pressure from shareholders at its meeting in California, but rejected proposals for more concerted action on climate change.

Last tar, an NGO called Influence Map estimated that Shell, ExxonMobil and three trade associations spent US$114 million in 2014 alone trying to manipulate politicians and public discourse on climate change. It said the American Petroleum Institute spent $US65 million, followed by Exxon Mobil on $US27m and Shell on $US22m.

What was interesting, however, was that an estimated 41 per cent of Chevron shareholders voted in favor of the company providing an assessment of the portfolio against a 2°C climate change scenario, and 38.2 per cent of shareholders at Exxon Mobil voted for a similar proposal.

Comments

12 responses to “Big Oil struggles with speed of renewable energy transition”

  1. Tim Forcey Avatar
    Tim Forcey

    Renewables find it difficult to economically compete with fossil fuels, in a world where fossil fuels receive subsidies, and the cost of climate catastrophe is not factored in to fossil fuel costs.

    1. Bob_Wallace Avatar
      Bob_Wallace

      Not really. Certainly not against oil.

      Driving an EV a mile is much cheaper than driving a gasmobile.

      In the US onshore wind (without subsidies) is less than natural gas and about falling under paid off coal.

      1. Pfitzy Avatar
        Pfitzy

        Driving it, yes. Buying it? Not so much – with the car market in Australia being seen as lacking progressive attitudes (thanks to government), as well as being a relatively small market, a lot of the EVs available in Europe and the US aren’t available here.

        A Model S here starts at around double the annual average salary (~AUD115K). Slightly out of reach for the average consumer.

        That will change when the Model 3 lands, and the other manufacturers wake up to the fact that its the future, not a curiosity.

        We’ll still pay about AUD45K for the privilege, which is what one guy at work here is preparing to spend on a V8 …

        1. neroden Avatar
          neroden

          Yeah, it takes a while to build a car company *from scratch*. Tesla’s following pretty much exactly the business plan used by all the successful car companies in the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s… and it takes a while.

          When the Model 3 hits the markets, the change is going to accelerate. But it still takes a while to build factories.

    2. Brunel Avatar
      Brunel

      Solar power is very cheap now.

      We need to look at building solar power stations in Tibet.

      And also mandate that 20% of apartments built from now on must have double glazed windows.

  2. Bob_Wallace Avatar
    Bob_Wallace

    Were I sitting in those shareholder meetings I think I would have started chanting –

    Kodak

    Kodak

    Kodak

    Kodak

  3. Mike Dill Avatar
    Mike Dill

    I saw a piece recently that noted adding a million EV’s will reduce oil demand (based on the refinery conversion to road fuels) by about half a million barrels a day. If the trend in the US and Europe continues, by 2020, we will have an oil glut in the US and Europe, further decreasing the values of these companies.

    1. arne-nl Avatar

      Did you sanity-check your numbers?

      adding a million EV’s –> half a million barrels a day

      So each EV replaces half a barrel of oil per day? That can’t be true.

      Or, coming in from another angle: it would mean that 170 million EV’s would replace the total world oil demand, which currently feeds about 1 billion LDV’s plus heavy trucks, buses, aeroplanes, shipping.

      That number is very, very wrong.

      1. Mike Dill Avatar
        Mike Dill

        You are right, I had a bad source. Bloomberg news guesses that each EV will ‘displace 15 barrels a year’, or 1/20 of a barrel a day. Bloomberg was also guessing that Tesla would be 1/10 of the market, so when Tesla had a half million cars out there, the displaced oil would be a million barrels a day.
        So, given Bloomberg’s numbers every 20 million EVs on the road will reduce oil demand by a million barrels a day. The real question is ‘How long will it take to get us there’.

        1. neroden Avatar
          neroden

          I’ve been trying to work this out for a while. Here’s my current theory:

          — for 2016-2018, oil prices rise. Supply is constricted as shale oil dries up. There is no new supply because (a) there is no new oil which is profitable below $50/bbl, (b) no bank is willing to finance stuff like shale oil after losing their shirts in the last couple of years, and (c) it’s slow to get new supply on line.
          — for 2018-2020, electric cars start really being mass-produced, causing cuts in global oil demand. (A million cars a year in 2018, basically half Tesla and half Chinese; incremental increases after that, maybe to 2 million a year.) However, as the shale oil runs out completely, oil supply constricts faster, and oil prices still rise. The result of the high oil prices is even higher demand for electric cars. Idiots at oil companies also invest in “exploration” because they’re dumb.
          — in 2021-2023, electric car production starts going at really high rates. Following Model 3’s release, other companies get into long-range electric cars in a big way, and it takes them about three years to actually get reasonable models out. Meanwhile, Tesla comes out with a pickup truck or something similar, expanding the market. In the same timeframe, all buses become electric as the very conservative agencies stop being so slow-moving. With electric car production running at 10-30 million per year, the cumulative reduction in oil demand starts exceeding the drop in oil supply. With the shale oil (which depletes fast) gone, the supply isn’t dropping as fast, anyway. This causes a glut to develop and the price of oil to crash again.
          — In 2024-2030, electric cars definitively take over the world market. New gasoline cars stop being manufactured except for specialty collectors’ items. Gasoline stations start closing at an accelerated rate. The oil price goes really really low. Oil companies lose their shirts on their “exploration” investments from 2016-2020, close in old wells which they can’t produce profitably, and suffer a wave of bankruptcies including major oil companies. Nobody will invest in the sector. Saudi Arabia survives but is not very rich.
          — In 2030-2035, the oil price rises. Supply is way down because so many oil wells have been shuttered and closed in permanently; and the bankruptcies have cleared out the debt overload. The oil demand has stabilized somewhat with the car & truck transportation demand eliminated. The oil companies are awash in lawsuits over environmental responsibilities, however. This is around the time when governments decide to actually start taxing oil to pay for the pollution costs. :eyeroll: Everyone who still has a gasoline car is trying to get an electric car ASAP. Saudi Arabia’s government collapses.

          Much of this could be quite wrong. I’m trying to predict the interplay of supply reduction and demand reduction to predict the price behavior, and this is notoriously difficut.

          1. Bob_Wallace Avatar
            Bob_Wallace

            That’s pretty much how I see it playing out. I’d add in one additional factor. Somewhere between 2020 and 2025 (probably closer to 2020) manufacturing costs even out for EVs and ICEVs. And a very few years later EVs become less expensive to manufacture. And purchase.

            The upfront cost for EVs will be less. The cost to operate will be cheaper for EVs. There will be no economic argument for purchasing an ICEV.

  4. neroden Avatar
    neroden

    Every dollar Shell spends on oil and gas “exploration” is simply wasted. Burned. The shareholders who told them to reinvest their profits into renewables were correct, but the CEO insists on squandering the company’s profits.

    *This* is why oil and gas companies are bad investments. If they just stuck to pumping existing wells (where most of the costs are already sunk and the cost of pumping is very low) they could remain profitable. Instead, they promise to burn trillions of dollars every year on worthless “exploration”.

    They haven’t found any significant amount of profitable oil — profitable at $50/bbl — for over a decade. That means there isn’t any to find. Oil prices will go down as demand drops due to electric car adoption, and oil companies will be out finding oil which can only be profitably produced at $70/bbl++.

    These companies are burning their shareholders’ money recklessly.

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