Queensland releases issues paper for 50% renewables target

The Queensland government has released an issues paper that sets out the potential options to meet its much touted renewable energy target and transform the country’s most heavily fossil fuel dependent grid into a system powered 50 per cent by renewables.

The issues paper – released on Tuesday by energy minister Mark Bailey, and put together by a special panel named earlier this year – notes that Queensland is almost entirely (94 per cent) dependent on coal, gas, diesel and fuel oil, and has largely missed out on the growth of large-scale renewable energy in recent years.

The state has led the country in the uptake of rooftop solar – encouraged by generous feed-in tariffs and then by its high network tariffs – and now has 1.5GW of solar on its rooftops, which is collectively the second biggest power generator in the state.

new generation australia

In large-scale renewables, however, it has just 12MW of wind capacity and 10MW in “large-scale” solar, with a further 670MW of mostly long-standing biomass and hydro power. By contrast it has 8,200MW of coal-fired capacity, 2,400MW of gas-fired generation, and a further 800MW of diesel and fuel oil capacity.

“The Palaszczuk government’s focus is to increase the uptake of renewable energy to create the jobs of the future, continue to boost investment, act on climate change, and also deliver value for energy customers and the government,” Bailey said in an accompanying statement.

The issues paper says that meeting the 50 per cent renewable energy target will require a “significant system transformation” and changes to way the energy market is managed.

It shows no preference for any particular policy mechanism and is seeking feedback from the public via submissions and a series of public meetings to be held across the state in June and July.

It notes that studies by the Australian Energy market Operator, the University of NSW, and CSIRO indicate that demand can reliably be met under growing penetrations of wind and solar, although system requirements will differ on the specific characteristics of each region.

One of the issues is the nature of Queensland’s grid, which is a “long network” with limited meshing, unlike the deeply integrated grids in Europe, the US and China. It noted though, that South Australia, which will reach 50 per cent wind and solar this year, also had high penetration of renewables without any system problems.

However, it recognised that more renewables would require new grid management strategies, and possibly new market mechanisms, such as those to encourage the key grid support services hither provided by coal and gas.

“Although managing future grids may be more challenging, this could be aided by emerging technologies such as storage and advanced inverters,” the report notes.

The issues paper canvasses a range of options, but a couple of things stand out.

queensland power price forecastsOne is its forecast for technology costs, and its assumption that renewable energy will require subsidies. At the start, maybe, but mostly they will require clear policy guidance.

The ACT reverse auction for wind capacity, and the ARENA funding round for large-scale solar indicate that wind and solar technology costs are already significantly below the lines plotted above in this graph. And nearly half of those ARENA solar projects are located in Queensland.

Another issue is its reporting on the situation in South Australia, where it infers that the state has the highest wholesale prices in the country because of the growth of wind power and the replacement of gas.



It ignores the fact that South Australia has long had higher renewable energy prices than the rest of Australia, thanks to its historic greater reliance on gas. That margin has been reduced markedly since the advent of wind, and rooftop solar, because less gas generation has been required. Indeed, some plant has been mothballed.

Queensland is now experiencing the cost of gas generation – as the new LNG plants are being fired up, more gas generation is being produced, to the point where Queensland has consistently had the highest wholesale prices in mainland Australia – beaten only by Tasmania, where drought, the loss of the cable to the mainland, and the installation of high-cost gas and diesel generation has caused prices to soar to record levels.

Comments

13 responses to “Queensland releases issues paper for 50% renewables target”

  1. john Avatar
    john

    One very simple way to move forward would be to eliminate the block on commercial buildings being able to install PV above 5 Kw Systems.
    It is ridiculous to see large shopping centers with huge roof areas and covered car parks with zero PV in place.
    There is no substance in aiming for a 50% goal, when the Government has in place the very policies, that mitigate against putting in place the type of very beneficial technology that would help in reaching this goal.
    Every large roof area in industrial areas should be covered in PV, these are mostly 2 story high buildings which have a large roof area to footprint ratio.
    For the small number of high rise building their roof area to footprint is not very usable.
    In the urban transport area serious consideration should be given to replacing the gas or diesel buses with Electric buses with solar arrays to provide the needed power as much as possible.
    If one looks around the urban environment from a built perspective there are many areas that should be addressed.
    Just look at every roof and image it covered in PV to supply power then look at the amount actually in place, I would say the ratio is about 100:1 to take up.

    1. solarguy Avatar
      solarguy

      Solar charged Ebuses are a great idea.

    2. jeffthewalker Avatar

      Shopping centres in Queensland buy their electricity at well under 10c per kWh. When that is addressed they can justify the cost of PV.

      1. john Avatar
        john

        Yes with buying power at 10c per kWh it would be over 15 years to come out in front that is at a cost of 1600 kWh output per 1 kW of PV @ $5K for a 5 kw system or $1000 per kW system.
        Which as we both know is going to be lower than that figure.

  2. Stewart Rogers Avatar
    Stewart Rogers

    Closing down the gas stations in QLD would be a stupid move if they do that. I see lots of potential for renewables + gas in QLD and that will produce cheap and consistent power long term.

    1. john Avatar
      john

      I see no mention of Gas Stations.
      Is that Gas in the American usage or gas as in natural gas or coal seam gas?
      Gas in the American usage is petroleum.
      Perhaps your are directing your comments at this.
      Queensland is now experiencing the cost of gas generation – as the new LNG plants are being fired up, more gas generation is being produced, to the point where Queensland has consistently had the highest wholesale prices in mainland Australia

      So trying to use less gas generation would be not stupid but beneficial.

      1. Stewart Rogers Avatar
        Stewart Rogers

        It should be fairly obvious I was referring to gas generation. (Baseload + Peakers).

        Renewables often clock in higher than $80-100 / MWh so I’m not sure what argument you’re trying to make. Gas peakers + wind + solar + hydro would suppress the NEM price from volatile peaks.

        1. john Avatar
          john

          Implementing Renewable Energy has to be in all areas as i mentioned below PV is not encouraged in the state.
          The problem with Gas Gen is the cost.
          There is not exactly a lot of wind resources however a little bit of tidal in the middle of the state, but the solar resources are huge far more than enough to supply the needs.

          1. Stewart Rogers Avatar
            Stewart Rogers

            Look at South Australia. Renewables + Gas can be cheap, lately since the energy mix transition the SA spot price has been pretty good. QLD can utilise CSP + PV + Hydro + gas peakers.

          2. solarguy Avatar
            solarguy

            John, dig a little deeper there is more wind in QLD than you imagine. Check it out.

          3. john Avatar
            john

            Actually I recently got quotes for an off grid supply for a remote property and yes there was consistent wind that would have tied in with the solar and battery storage to meet the requirements.
            On large scale it appears the wind is not as plentiful as the southern coast line of Australia.

        2. nakedChimp Avatar
          nakedChimp

          There is no baseload. There is at most baseoutput by the gas/coal power plants that can’t adapt to demand.

  3. Dispassionate Avatar
    Dispassionate

    Happy to go renewable but it will cost us all more $$. Also all renewable large scale solar and wind etc will be brought to us via the grid, which will have to be paid for…
    I am thinking Australia would probably be better off sitting back and free ride using the resources we have here and now while allowing the rest of the world to develop the tech at their cost and once the tech is mature take it up at much lower cost.
    None of the industry developed thus far in regard to solar is of any real significance, just businesses installing overseas products anyway.

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