NZ forecast to reach 100% electric car sales by 2030

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Deutsche Bank predicts 100% market penetration of electric vehicles in New Zealand by 2030, and Productivity Commission urges rapid and comprehensive shift to EVs.

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The Driven

As arguments rage in Australia over the electric vehicle policy unveiled by Labor last week – aiming for a 50 per cent share of electric vehicles in new car sales by 2030 – over the Tasman in New Zealand the government is expected to be even more ambitious.

Analysts there are expecting New Zealand to reach 100 per cent of new vehicles by 2030, as part of a plan to ensure that 90 per cent of the entire fleet, if not 100 per cent, is electric by 2050.

“Our base case assumption is that EVs will achieve 100% penetration of new light fleet imports by 2030 and 100% of used imports by 2035,” Deutsche Bank analysts said in a recent report.

“This leads to an expectation for 15% of the light fleet to be electric by 2030,  climbing to 53% by 2040 and 90% by 2050.”

This is in line with local Productivity Commission, which last year reacted to the country’s soaring emissions by saying New Zealand “must stop burning fossil fuels”, and switch quickly to electricity for transport and heating.

“This means a rapid and comprehensive switch of the light vehicle fleet to electric vehicles (EVs) and other very low-emissions vehicles, and a switch away from fossil fuels in providing process heat for industry,” it said in its report.

And it came to a similar conclusion to Deutsche Bank analysts: “To electrify the bulk of the light vehicle fleet by 2050, nearly all newly registered vehicles (including used imports) would need to be electric by the early 2030s,” it said.

The Productivity Commission recommended a range of options to encourage EVs, including a  “feebate” scheme, in which importers would either pay a fee or receive a rebate, depending on the emissions intensity of the imported vehicle.

Currently, the country has a target of 64,000 EVs by 2021, which it is supporting by exempting EVs from road user charges (worth around $NZ600 a year). You can check out monthly sales here.

Read the full story on RenewEconomy’s electric vehicle news dedicated site, The Driven…

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