11.4 million EVs are expected on America’s roads by 2025. Will the grid be ready?

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Greentech Media

Developing a more sophisticated set of tools for analyzing the future impact of EVs on the electric system

Developing a more sophisticated set of tools for analyzing the future impact of EVs on the electric system

With a broader range of market options and supporting infrastructure, the U.S. electric-vehicle market is on the verge of a breakthrough. By 2025, America will likely have 11.4 million EVs on the road, with a market value of over $400 billion.

This growth in EV adoption will create complexity for grid operators and other electricity market stakeholders. In GTM Research’s new report, The Impact of Electric Vehicles on the Grid: Customer Adoption, Grid Load and Outlook, these complexities are discussed and analyzed in order to provide insight into how customer adoption and grid load will unfold.

Around $3 billion of federal incentives have supported the growth of the U.S. EV market to date. Many states have also offered their own incentives. Furthermore, EV adoption is supported by improving economics and a growing sentiment that electrified transport can support decarbonization.

“A price and energy cost analysis of conventional, hybrid and electric vehicles illustrates that the EV has the lowest lifetime cost, even in a low-oil-price environment,” said Timotej Gavrilovic, the author of the report.

However, questions about grid impacts still remain. “The impact of EVs on the electricity grid, estimated at 1.4 terawatt-hours in 2015, depends on how quickly consumers and the utility infrastructure can adapt to this growing market,” Gavrilovic said.

Factors including policy, incentives and overall renewables penetration present challenges in different U.S. geographies and may impact the regions’ respective grid operations. “California and Hawaii are among the first geographies facing the most prodigious challenges resulting from renewable and EV penetration. These challenges led them to increase their efforts to innovate in demand-side management (DSM). EVs are just one of many possible technological solutions in the DSM toolbox that can support overall renewable and decarbonization goals,” said Gavrilovic.

Source: GTM Research

Source: GTM Research

The growing volume of EVs will require action from regulators, planners and operators as adoption soars to 12 million EVs in the U.S. This creates opportunities for existing and new market players to provide integrated solutions for the EV driver, electric utility, wholesale energy market and aggregators.

Source: CleanTechnica. Reproduced with permission.


  • Mike Dill

    Getting a substantial number of EV’s on the grid is easily managed IF the EV owners are given the proper price signals. If I have a flat rate for power, I will plug-in when i get home, making the evening peak even greater, and I would have no incentive to do anything else. This would probably be bad for the grid.
    Currently my Time-Of-Use rate is such that I charge at night. I suspect that soon, the TOU rate structure will change with another ‘dip’ in the middle of the day, as all the PV panels are producing in the ‘belly’ of the ‘duck’. When that happens, I will change my behavior based on the price signals I receive. With further information and incentives, I could have an app monitoring the rate, and modifying my ‘draw’ in ‘real-time’.