Major changes proposed for Victoria’s transmission projects would kill off projects and see capital flee to other states, wind industry figures have warned.
The caution comes as Victoria shadow energy minister David Davis reiterated, at a wind energy conference on Tuesday, that the Liberal Party plans to “pause” and “swiftly examine” the VNI West and Western Renewable Link transmission projects if it wins government in November.
But the very act of pausing transmission projects – already years into planning processes and after major legislative changes already completed to make them possible – will cause a flight of capital from Victoria, says longstanding wind industry executive Peter Cowling.
Pausing transmission will stop all energy projects in Victoria – including offshore wind which the Liberals purportedly support — Cowling told the Australian Wind Industry Forum today.
“I would just re-emphasise the point that transmission inventory is everything,” he said.
“We don’t have some of the grander plans of transmission expansion in other states or the zones in New South Wales. We need to deliver on what’s planned at the moment.
“There’s an enormous amount of investment to fall off the back of that, and without that, really not quite sure what happened to Victoria.”
That is a scenario which Victoria energy minister Lily D’Ambrosio is using as a scare tactic in her election campaign.
D’Ambrosio reminded the audience of the “flight of capital” that took place under the last Liberal government.
“In 2010 and 2014, not one new renewable energy project received planning approval during that whole period. And guess what else happened? Every single dollar of investment in renewable energy projects in Victoria went to other states,” she said.
‘We’ve caught up and we’re now ahead, actually, of a lot of states… We’re well on the way to achieving (the state government’s target of) 65 per cent [renewable energy] in 2030.”
The Liberal Party argument extends beyond the economics of projects like VNI West to the angst it has caused in the affected regional communities, that has led to a number of organised protests and left farmers feeling bullied and unheard.
It argues that VNI West has no social licence and is increasingly relying on “harsh legislative changes” such as fines for farmers refusing access to their land, and compulsory acquisition of easements, to get built.
Davis promised the industry audience the projects will be “closely and quickly, swiftly” examined.
“We will not let the grass grow on this,” he said. “We want to be very quick, and we want to do this independently, and we want to make that decision and move forward.”
But, in spite of coming out strongly supportive of offshore wind — albeit with the potential for another review of plans for the Port of Hastings which is expected to be the hub of offshore construction – Davis did not dispel fears that Victoria, under a Liberal government, will become Queensland-lite.
The Crisafulli LNP government in Queensland was elected in late 2024 and over the last 18 months has laid waste to the state’s reputation as a leader of renewable energy developments in Australia.
In July last year it put in place laws that added new community benefits requirements to planning processes just for wind, solar and battery developments, and its energy roadmap in October assumes no new wind and solar from the state’s grid from 2035 onwards.
Planning minister Jarrod Bleijie has used planning processes and law changes to delay or stop some wind and battery projects, while state-owned companies such as Stanwell have read the tea leaves and pulled out of previously-agreed equity deals in wind and solar projects.
Instead, the state wants to focus on drilling for oil in the Bowen Basin and is withholding support for elements of the long-fought for EPBC changes.
Davis also alluded to taking a Queensland-like position on other issues, pointing to “excessively intrusive” new Commonwealth processes but not saying what these are, and asking for more clarity about the EPBC changes.
As a result, clean energy investment in Queensland is plummeting.
It’s a scenario the renewable energy industry are hoping doesn’t play out again in Victoria.
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