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Why there will be no new petrol cars sold in Australia by 2027

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Much of the public and media commentators fail to pay full attention to the transportation disruption the world is about to go through, many consider it’s going to happen but believe the change will be very slow, a 30 to 50 year process is the general opinion.

Well here’s my prediction: by 2027 there will be no sales of new 100 per cent internal combustion engine vehicles (ICE) in Australia.

Car dealerships, if that concept still exists, will only stock battery electric vehicles (BEV) or Hybrid vehicles, at least 80 per cent of those vehicles will be the less complicated BEV, the remaining sales Hybrid, anyone looking to buy a new internal combustion engine driving a mechanical drive-train will be in for a shock.

Most people reading this would very much doubt the above is even close to reality in Australia as there is a section of today’s population that will always want an ICE drive-train. Yes, that’s correct, but there’s also a series of factors that will combine to fast track the demise of new ICE vehicle sales.

I will get to the biggest factor last but first it’s important to look at the timeline of electric vehicle disruption:

  1. 2018-Most of the world’s car makers are preparing for an Electric vehicle future, due to bottlenecks in battery supply chains and other production constraints the initial build volumes will be low keeping prices high.
  2. Sometime before 2022 the average Electric vehicles total cost of ownership will be less than an equivalent ICE vehicle, this includes the lower life time servicing, repair and re-fuelling costs.
  3. By 2025 the initial purchase price of an EV will be less than the purchase price of the equivalent ICE vehicle. This is due to a number of reasons including; far higher production volumes, far lower battery costs and the clear fact that an EV with less than 20 moving parts is far less complicated to build than an internal combustion engine drive-train with over 2000 moving parts.
  4. By 2025 the excuses for not owning an EV will no longer exist, driving range per charge, recharging speed and availability of charging points will be perfectly acceptable for most drivers, for those that aren’t convinced that a BEV is suitable a Hybrid vehicle will cover their needs. For those who still need a brand new complete internal combustion engine drive-train vehicle they have 2 years before the price difference becomes too much to justify.

So what’s the biggest factor in the demise of ICE new car sales? Put simply the country has too many now.

Australian’s have had a long love affair with their cars, getting a driver’s licence and car was and in many cases still is a big deal to many teenagers, this carried on through their 20s right through to retirement.

Cars offered freedom, a great way to socialise, and if you weren’t that sharp at school, no good at sport, or would never win a beauty contest, that didn’t matter – you could always have a cool car.

That’s all about to change. Cars are not so important to many teenagers anymore; it’s a tool to get from A to B, they have a smart phone and that’s more exciting, plus they can call a Uber to get from A to B.

Then there’s the adult population that already have a licence and live in a two or three car family. They already had an inkling that cars were money pits, but it’s starting to hit home now.

The most recent report from the AAA states that transport costs are almost $18,000 per household; that extra car taking up space in the carport is starting to look dispensable.

Paying for a second or third motor vehicle that rarely gets used is a waste when public transport, car sharing or an electric pushbike could reduce the transport costs significantly.

Some households have already taken this course of action, the money is better spent on home loan repayments or holidays, expect plenty more to follow suit as time passes.

On top of this there’s a growing number of reasons for the public to give up driving, such as speed cameras, toll roads, road rage and traffic jams. These inhibitors to a pleasant driving experience will not go away.

For many people it’s a far better experience to be a passenger and catch up with social media, expect car ownership to reduce steadily over the next decade, public transport and electric vehicle ride sharing will increase in popularity.

All those cars and SUVs that were purchased new between now and 2025 will still be useful, but they will be common and cheap on the second hand market. Due to the higher running costs compared to an electric vehicle, it may be viable to purchase a very cheap second hand ICE but certainly not viable to purchase a new one.

The only ICE vehicles that hold any value will be rare classics from the days when Australians loved their cars.

Robert Dean is an owner of both electric and ICE vehicles  

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  • handbaskets’r’us

    Great article Rob.
    On a similar level, by 2027 we might expect rooftop solar on most homes and businesses. The momentum is tangible.
    Running the car off the roof is a great incentive.
    Breakthroughs in battery tech may also see the electrification of commercial aviation.

    • The_Lorax

      “electrification of commercial aviation”

      Physics says no.

      • Pete

        Current application of physics says ‘no’…Chemistry says ‘maybe’…

      • Mike Dill

        At shorter range (1000km or less) batteries make economic sense for commercial aviation when they get to 400w/kg. Not there yet, but there are some promising chemistries being touted as getting us there. Longer range will require some other fuel for now.

        • The_Lorax

          Hmmm. Energy density of best lithium ion batteries is ~1/50th of jet fuel. Jet airliners have lifetimes of 30+ years. I doubt we’ll see any significant electrification of commercial aviation before mid-century. Perhaps some hybridisation for short-haul flights. We have around 20 years at current rate of emissions before the 2C carbon budget is blown after which we cannot emit another gram of CO2. Forever. Can’t see technology saving us on this one.

          • Mike Dill

            Yes the energy density of batteries is much lower than fuel. But over half that energy is wasted as heat. For the shorter routes, you can carry enough batteries to get you there.

            Currently fuel is about a third of the cost of air travel. Planes, maintenance, and people make up the remainder. As batteries last a few thousand cycles, the cost payback time is not that long if they can get you where you need to go. The maintenance costs go down as well.

          • Firey Octane

            Whilst I agree that current LiIon battery technology is not ready for long haul aviation, Lithium Metal Air battery technology instead has the energy density potential (and therefore vehicle range and utility) to match jetfuel. The trick will be to master the durability and safety issues, storage energy efficiency and operation of Metal-air batteries in thin air – all the kind of things that needed to take place over the 20th century from Wright brothers to the 787 Dreamliner. It is clear that a fully electric long haul jet aircraft equivalent is some engineering steps away.

          • The_Lorax

            Energy densities:

            Lithium metal battery: 1.8 MJ/kg 4.32 MJ/L
            Jet fuel (Kerosene): 42.8 MJ/kg 37.4 MJ/L

            Still an order of magnitude improvement required.

      • SomethingSomethingSomething

        I wouldn’t be so dismissive. While large commercial is a long way off, small electric aircraft for short hop flights under 500km are in the pipeline. I’m no expert, but in the next 5-10 years I’d see the greatest potential in the electrification of light aircraft (1-4 seaters) for flight training and those used in scenic flights. It’s a no-brainer for the reduced fuel and maintenance costs.

        • Abel Adamski

          Commuter aircraft say up to 200 miles, up to 20 passengers.
          As far less noise pollution suitable commuter landing fields without all the customs and freight handling could be cl;ose to regional larger towns ans cities.
          Airlines are seeing a whole new market

        • George Darroch

          Those are small aircraft and a niche case. I think that there will be progress over the next decade, but it will take new battery forms before we can get to the next stage. LiOn just doesn’t contain enough to get an aircraft of size into the air and any distance.

          • The_Lorax

            I would loving more than for aviation to be decarbonised within ten years, but it simply isn’t going to happen. For the world to stay under 1.5C or even 2C rich westerners will have to fly less often. That is a reality people will find very hard to accept, and probably won’t accept.

      • handbaskets’r’us

        I’m no physicist Mr. L, but perhaps you could check this out:
        https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-success-new-era-electric-flight/
        Also check out Pipistrel.com. There is one of these that takes people from Perth to Rottnest Island, and that’s the smaller version of at least 3 models.
        Siemens, Airbus and Rolls Royce are also working on a commercial jet right now.

      • Abel Adamski

        There are already short haul commercial Electric aircraft, even Boeing is getting into it. There is actually a huge untapped market in ultracheap silent short haul commercial flight.
        Wright aircraft, Norway is going electric ferries and barges and also commuter aircraft

        • The_Lorax

          There are no electric commercial aircraft in service. There have been announcements of very small hybrid-electric planes that will fly very short distances. That is all.
          https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/oct/06/electric-commuter-plane-backed-by-boeing-to-take-off-in-2022

          • George Darroch

            Thanks Lorax. There’s a lot of nonsense being posted about electric aircraft, but fundamentally they have an energy problem which is not yet solved, and unless radical new energy storage technology is invented any progress will be incremental.

      • Joe

        Solar Impulse 2 went around the world….Physics said….. YES!

        • The_Lorax

          Oh FFS, with this level of understanding of the problem perhaps humanity really is doomed.

          • Joe

            What’s the problem. The naysayers were out in force 100 years ago when The Wright Brothers and the rest did the business. Today the naysayers can’t help themselves in poo pooing the idea of Electric Aviation. Solar Impulse 1 and 2 are the ‘Wright Brothers’ of the 21st Century and more advances in Electric Aviation will surely follow leading. The Physics says…YES!

  • Jolly Roger

    Someone needs to bring out an electric ute and and an electric 4×4 to take advantage of existing tax incentives for farmers and other businesses. There was an interesting Land Rover conversion on Fully Charged recently, maybe even some of that here.

    • Rod

      The existing tax incentives, like the standing diesel rebate, are a reason farmers drive diesel 4WDs.

      • Jolly Roger

        Well the diesel rebate is really all about heavy machinery and that well known trope of farmers sons driving their heavily depreciated petrol utes off to uni still holds.

    • Chris Drongers

      Electric utes would fit well on many farms and even moderate (up to 10,000 ha) grazing properties where use is generally below 100 km/day and use is almost entirely during daylight hours (allowing for overnight recharging, even better if from a flimsy single-wire-earth-return circuit if no local solar and battery available (may soon be, see Horizon Power’s plan to switch many of the 10,000 SWER properties in WA to solar+battery+diesel backup))

      • Ian

        The Ute is a very Australian thing , an BEV Ute would be awesome. If you look at EV built from the ground up the batteries and motors all have a low profile . The front of a vehicle no longer needs a long engine compartment. This length realestate could be put to better use for cabin size or load area.

        • Hettie

          There is a group of Americans who love their “pickup trucks” too. That’s their name for utes. Yes, lefthand drive, but there are tradies and farmers all over the world, and many of them would be ute users.

    • MacNordic
      • My_Oath

        That’s a Hybrid though.

        Rivian’s BEV pickup and BEV SUV are what you are looking for.

        • MacNordic

          Thanks,

          hadn´t heard of that one! The Bollinger might also be fitting the 4×4 description…

          • My_Oath

            Yeah I only recently found out about Rivian myself. They have flown underr the radar it seems. I really hope they come off.

    • Greg McGarvie launched his ACE-EV Ute & Van a couple of weeks ago at the inaugural Noosa Electric Vehicle Expo. Check out this article – http://evtalk.com.au/ace-plans-electric-car-making-in-australia/

    • Robert Comerford
  • Warwick Sands

    Another point is that many cities are in the process of banning non-electric vehicles. Hybrids will continue to give some life to ICE motors. A big consideration when buying a car is the trade in value of your current vehicle. Who would buy a car that will have a very low trade in value at the end of its life?

    One would expect that the number of ICE vehicle models will shrink over time. Ford is reducing the number of sedan models in favour of SUVs.

    • Joe

      With the big cities around the world drowning in vehicle emissions I predict that bans on ICE vehicles will be the norm very soon. Hamburg, Germany has started the ball rolling on banning Dirty Diesel vehicles.

      • MaxG

        Don’t think so… We have a climate denying government, wanting to opt out of Paris… we have collateral human and environmental damage and nobody cares. We won’t ban ICE cars…

        • Joe

          Max, I’m an optimist. The tide is turning. We are now seeing legal actions being taken overseas in the name of climate change. We’ve had that Court ruling in Germany with the City of Hamburg beginning implementation. Of course here in Australia we have a pathetic COALItion holding us back but things change with changes in government. Then there is the ultimate driving ( pun intended ) force of rising petrol prices. The ICE punters will start to look into their wallets a lot harder as petrol goes towards $2 litre.

          • MaxG

            I know… me too… but I am also a realist working with facts rather then hope. While we’ve seen rapid adoption of recent technologies, leadership no matter where, as long as they are in power, they dictate what goes. And when you look at the current government hand in hand with the corporations and media, you have three of the four pillars of democracy working against the forth (the people). This is, by all means, a no-win situation… and will stay this way until the people revolt. Given that 50% voted for the current clowns, this will need (if it should ever happen) a revolution to change.

          • Joe

            It is all the truth that you write and no argument from me. Next election is coming soon and as you note it is still 50/50 ish in the opinion polls. Another 3 years of COALItion Climate Criminals in charge is not an option.

          • Hettie

            When smart phones first appeared in 2005, were you sceptical about their potential uptake?
            Too expensive, who needs all those bells and whistles?
            And by 2011, what had happened?

          • MaxG

            Not sure what you are referring to. I replied to Joe’s post.

            To answer your questions: 1. No; 2. No; 3. Don’t care.

            My post was in response to what other governments are doing, and that I do not believe the AU gov will follow, due to their neoliberal agenda, combined with wilful ignorance of its people.

      • MaxG

        AU does not follow the leaders in the ‘good stuff’; we follow the idiots on this globe, like the Trumps of the world and their fascist and anti-democratic doctrine.

        • Hettie

          And yet we have been leaders in the uptake of new technology. VCRs, CDs, DVDS, mobile phones, smartphones, Australians have jumped on these very quickly.
          All of those innovations happened before the GFC, while we as a nation had very high disposable income. Now the ridiculous cost of housing, coupled with flat wages growth, means more attention to costs. And the biggest cost after housing (and perhaps private schools for the kids) is the car. Cars. Not just the purchase price, the running costs.
          With EV running costs being way lower than ICE, as soon as prices approach parity the shift will be sudden.
          Of course there will still be a second hand market for ICE cars, but new ones?
          I don’t think so.

    • MaxG

      Not in coal loving AU.

      • Mike Dill

        Remember: Politics can change….

        • Mike Shurtleff

          It already is. State governments in Australia are flipping over to support of Wind, Solar, and Battery Storage. Fed will be next.
          Same in USA. Just when we get our very own Malcolm Turnbull (Trump), the economics are changing. Trump is failing to bring back coal. His administration is starting to support Wind. (Several republican states have a lot of it now.) Trump has failed to stop growth of Solar PV. EVs sales are also still increasing.
          Change is at hand.

      • Mike Shurtleff

        Politics follows the money. More money in EVs and RE electricity than oil and coal going forward.

  • Phil

    15 years out i think for 50% EV uptake = 2030 plus

    Anyone who travels in the regions or tows knows
    having a serious 1000km range for a near 3 tonne 4WD towing a near 3 tonne caravan and replacing that with an affordable EV is a big challenge
    And there are a lot of those out there on the highways now

    Also i predict in Australia you may well have to pay 60 cents a kwh for EV recharging as government and industry reclaim the tax and profits lost. Much cheaper at home to charge but not always possible. And most houses will struggle to get 80kwh in one day off their roofs and that is shared house and vehicle.

    So that towing rig that needs a 400 kwh battery to get the same 1000 km range is $264 to charge @ 60c a KWH, excluding any charge losses.Not to mention the 4 hours minimum needed to recharge even using a 100kw charger. ( excluding losses)

    To put that into perspective even at $1.50 a litre with a 130 litre tank of diesel that’s $195 to do same.

    • Nick Kemp

      Are there many people driving 1000km a day towing caravans? Personally I could take 2 weeks (or even two months if the mood struck) just to get from Adelaide to Melbourne. What is the rush?

      • Chris Drongers

        Phil is a great believer in the ‘long tail’; those very few in the long tail of the driving distribution will determine the tax and range settings for the rest? Really? Toyota sells a lot of Yaris’s and Echo’s that could never tow a 3 tonne van. So Phil is trolling.
        Pretty much guarantee Phil is also wrong on ‘fuel’ tax. As vehicle efficiency improves ‘fuel’ taxes become ineffective. As roof-top solar and peer-to-peer power trading gains ground ‘fuel’ taxing becomes impossible. As road congestion increases the need for a price signal for road use increases.
        All of the above points to variable road use pricing (according to time, location and axle-load) being the obvious outcome for governments.
        And Phil and his F250 towing a twin axle grey idiot behemoth can continue to search for rarer and scarcer fueling points and increasingly pricey diesel (as oil companies lose volume and decrease exploration, raising the ratio of exploration costs to recovered oil volume).

        • Andy Saunders

          Well, Phil may have exaggerated, but he does have something of a point. There is a market for heavy towing vehicles, albeit tiny.

          I suspect the article is wrong, there will be *some* ICE vehicles sold in 2027, but perhaps not many. And that’s OK, better to get what is possible rather than die in a ditch for the impossible. There will eventually be an EV replacement for heavy towing if it’s a significant niche.

          • Phil

            Top 5 car sales April 2018. 3 are heavy towing vehicles.
            The Landcruiser at 5 is 2700kg unladen

            https://www.canstar.com.au/car-loans/top-10-selling-cars/

          • Chris Drongers

            https://www.drive.com.au/motor-news/tax-changes-target-dual-cab-utes-117070 and https://www.drive.com.au/motor-news/when-is-a-4wd-not-20100823-13g1s

            Vehicles legitimately used for business should get a business tax deduction. But my Yaris should get equal tax treatment if used to drop the kids off at school. In fact, public transport fares should get similar tax treatment to private use of business vehicles.

            I don’t know if 4WD still get a light truck tax deduction on the grounds that they are used on farms and mines.

          • Nick Kemp

            Most of them dropping the kids of in inner Sydney and other cities. There are apparently rich suburbs in London wher all the giant 4WDs are being replaced with BMW i3s because that’s what is trendy now

          • Ian

            The bigger question is: will there be cheap swap and drop EV substitutes for petrol and Diesel engines. There must soon be a huge aftermarket for deICEing cars.

          • Andy Saunders

            Answer is no.

            EVs optimally have the battery rather wide, flat and low (often beneath the passenger compartment), and the motor/drive train is quite different in shape.

            It would be a little like lipstick on a pig.

          • Abel Adamski

            Haven’t you heard never say never
            Remember that earlier article about Prince Harry and his 1968 E Type Jaguar factory converted EV
            https://reneweconomy.com.au/video-of-the-day-prince-harry-and-his-all-electric-jaguar-e-type-22483/

            The Jaguar conversion is a battery and motor module that bolts in on the existing motor and gearbox mounts, using the existing tailshaft and diff etc.
            Applicable to every Jaguar using that 3.8L straight 6 and that is most of the classic Jaguars.
            Plus it is easily and rapidly reverted back to original for the absolute purist

          • Andy Saunders

            Yes, of course that’s a gorgeous car, but one with an enormous under-bonnet space (that just seems to go on forever) that was able to fit a V12 engine. I’m more than a little jealous.

            But sensible modern ICE car designs have nowhere near the amount of space, making retrofits less practical (whatever benefits an electric E-type has, I’m pretty sure that practicality wasn’t a prime goal). With that long, heavy driveshaft/diff/axle arrangement, I’m guessing that the electric E isn’t perhaps competitive on performance measures (but who cares? It’s possibly the sexiest thing on wheels)

            Native EVs optimise battery packaging; non-native EVs force the battery into the awkward footprint of the ICE platform, which limits the realized energy capacity. The native EV battery pack, by contrast, can take a simple, rectangular shape, giving native EVs up to twice the range according to the Environmental Protection Agency with similar price. In addition, native EVs achieve a larger interior space (up to 10 percent) for the same wheelbase compared with not only non-native counterparts, but also standard ICE vehicles in the same segment.

            EV design is far from a settled science – cells are cylindrical, pouch or prismatic, with multiple chemistries; thermal management widely varies; the module integration of the powertrain isn’t settled, to name some major areas.

            I just don’t see retrofits (except in limited cases) to be feasible or desirable. Buyers will always have an eye to the remaining life of the vehicle (E-Types probably have infinite life solely for aesthetic reasons!), and an eye to a new EV as an alternative.

          • Rod

            “deICEing cars”
            Love it.

        • Phil

          Top 5 car sales april 2018 Australia
          https://www.canstar.com.au/car-loans/top-10-selling-cars/

          1) Toyota Hilux

          2) Toyota Corolla

          3) Ford Ranger

          4) Mazda 3

          5) Toyota landcruiser

          So 3 of the top 5 vehicles sold in Australia are over 2 tonne in weight and can tow 3 tonne.

          These vehicles also do a lot of kilometers with heavy loads as well as towing

          • Andy Saunders

            Very few actually ever used for heavy towing. Often called Toorak Tractors, or Mismanagement Shopping Trolleys…

          • Andy Saunders

            Oh, and a Hilux is fairly useless for towing. More typically a trade short-haul vehicle.

          • SomethingSomethingSomething

            Definitely top heavy in 4×4 sales, but I didn’t see the Landcruiser on the 2017 top sellers numbers I found (below). Still plenty of small/medium cars and SUVs that are squarely in the sights of incoming BEV/PHEVs:

            Toyota HiLux – 47093
            Ford Ranger – 42728
            Toyota Corolla – 37353
            Mazda 3 – 32690
            Hyundai i30 – 28780
            Mazda CX-5 – 25831
            Hyundai Tucson – 23828
            Holden Commodore – 23676
            Toyota Camry – 23620
            Mitsubishi Triton – 23605
            Holden Colorado – 21579
            Toyota RAV4 – 21077
            Mitsubishi ASX – 19403
            Nissan X-Trail – 18955
            Kia Cerato – 18731
            Volkswagen Golf – 18454
            Isuzu D-Max – 17717
            Mazda CX-3 – 17490
            Hyundai Accent – 17578
            Mitsubishi Outlander – 16632

            https://www.caradvice.com.au/612213/vfacts-industry-claims-annual-record-for-2017/

          • Nick Kemp

            “These vehicles also do a lot of kilometers with heavy loads as well as towing”

            I’d argue that they can do that but most of them don’t and never will

    • Cooma Doug

      There will be economic platforms in the transport industry that are driven by other products. Just like the internet and wifi changed the 50 dollar phone calls to Grandma in London down to zero. Would you stay in a Motel with no wifi if the one next door had it for free?

      No grey nomad will fill up their vehicle for 150 dollars when the 25 dollar a day van site has free charging. No business will be able to sell electricity for 60 cents a KWhr when all new buildings will be energy positive on construction.

      • Ian

        Doug, things change fast. I have a year’s telephone plan with so much internet, I don’t even bother using free wifi anymore, it’s not worth the 10secs to sign up.

      • Greg Hudson

        Re pricing… Tesla has indicated juice will be AU$0.35c / kWh when they start selling it. This is supposed to be ‘cost neutral’ (my arse)…
        Yes, it may be cheaper than petrol, but it is way over what it will be costing them to buy. Signing PPA’s at the current rate of 4c/kWh and then the public might have some ‘real’ incentive to go EV. No subsidies required if ‘electrons’ costs virtually nothing…

    • RobertO

      Hi Plil, what happens if RE drops the price in Australia. What happens if the Network companies lose grid control and are forced to drop prices to stop grid defections (in NSW about 2022 is my prediction)
      I believe that BEV will be much more common about 2022 to 2025 and that people that want the 1000 km range will get FCEV with the towing ability.

    • Phil Shield

      Hi Phil, I’ve checked the calcs, and it looks about right except that you have overestimated electricity costs by a factor of 10. So its an easy fix, just move the decimal point one place. $26.4 to charge the battery or $195 to fill with diesel.

      • Phil

        Check the Qld Gov costs here for an average EV recharge cost of $45

        https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/queensland-s-electric-car-super-highway-all-but-completed-20180130-p4yz35.html

        I’m talking a non average not even built yet 400kwh battery pack ev needed for towing 2-3 tonne. Not a yaris.

        I’d love to see an EV Yaris tow a 2500kg caravan and how many recharges needed. Especially going away from the coast and up the great dividing range

        • Ferris B

          That was the journalist’s claim taken from a government official who is lacking in math.

          • Phil

            Well there you go

            Never believe a Journo or Government official quote

            And go on ACTUAL historical electricity retail price data and EV uptake and that’s what i base my future likely scenario on.

    • Ian

      How did you get the electricity consumption for this rig to be 400wh/km? Compared to a diesel consumption of 13l/100km?

      The Tesla model 3 consumption is about 200wh/km a similar sized and spec’d car might be a V6 Camry with a 9 to 13l/100km consumption.

      Apparently a land cruiser towing a large van may use up to 17l/100km so the cost to do 1000km is now $255 . The Queensland electric superhighway has free chargers at the moment but assuming in the future these would be similar to home grid electricity: 30c/kWh for a consumption of 400Wh/km =$130

      How much would 400kWh weigh? 85kg Tesla battery weighs 540kg therefore this tow truck would have a battery weighing 2.5 tonnes. Large electric trucks and buses have this sized battery but there won’t be much space on a tow truck for 2.5tonnes of battery;)

      • Phil

        If you look up the tesla tests expect 40% of the range towing a brick in weight and wind resistance.

        And the Tesla is not an off road vehicle designed to last 20 years and weighing say 2500kg.

        So assuming the 500 km tesla range when towing becomes 200 then multiply by 5 x 90 kwh to get 450 kwh needed for the tow vehicle to get 1000 km towing a van over 2 tonnes

        • Ferris B

          Please make the effort to read the article again if you even bothered to do in the first place, if any driver needs to travel 1000kms a day towing over 2 tonnes they have the option of buying a hybrid vehicle or a used car with up to 10 years of life remaining.

    • Hettie

      The grey nomads are more likely to have a you beaut EV mobile home, with a solar rooftop, towing a very small EV for running about once they reach a campsite.

  • Brunel

    Correct about the speed cameras. They need to paint the limit on the road and allow people to go 5 km/h over the limit.

    Also paint STOP on the road instead of just relying on a metal pole that may be hidden by a giant umbrella in front of a restaurant.

    • Hettie

      Stop *is* painted on the road, in the form of a solid white line across the lane.
      Same with Give Way, but the line is broken.

      • Rod

        I think it depends on the State. Good old Orstralya can’t even agree on uniform road rules.

  • ashentegra

    I think new ICE car sales will taper sooner than that. The capital cost/running cost bases of ICE v EV are quite different. As soon as people have a decent dataset to compare the two (Choice, RACV) they will respond rationally and simply stop buying new ICE cars and run their ageing jalopies into the ground. Second-hand ICE prices will be artificially inflated for a time as cars written off by collisions shrink the fleet, but everyone will be very reluctant to buy new when ICE redundancy looms so close.

    • Mike Westerman

      I agree – it’s very likely to be a vicious circle: inner city petrol stations are already retreating further out, and office and shopping centre charging will accelerate that. Likewise service stations start to close on lack of the need for regular servicing. Soon for commuters it becomes way too inconvenient to drive other than a low cost EV, many of which are being marketed in China and India already. Once the mass market for ICE start eroding it will go fast.

      • Abel Adamski

        Another factor, as it gets warmer, even in the Southern States, Supermarket and Shopping Centre car parks will be looking at roofing their parking areas and a no brainer to install Solar and charging points as a marketing gimmick at first

    • Jolly Roger

      The advent of the “NOKIA car” perhaps !

    • Abel Adamski

      RACV Drive School already has several hybrids in it’s fleet and plans on buying a Tesla 3, maybe pick up a Leaf or two. I would suggest the Motoring association Drive Schools will all do similar.
      RACV also has charging stations at their Resorts and have one or two Leafs available for guest trial/hire. One of their Leafs was first EV I have driven, real nice car to drive.
      NRMA is installing charging stations

  • mr_realsurf

    There must be a point when decreasing numbers of ICE units start to cause market size related issues for the petroleum refiners and transporters as well as the ICE manufacturers and repairers. My bet is that refineries have minimum throughput volumes both for technical and financial reasons. If demand dries up, so do they – and everyone else in the ICE supply chain.

    • RobertO

      Hi mr_realsurf, your a bit slow, our Fed Gov is already reducing FF storage in Australia. We currently have about 25 days worth for the average consumer and it there is any interruption to our supplies we will have shortages. The way Australia plans this is to let free market decide (and they have with “Why should I pay for storage when I can just in time deliveries”). To increase our FF supplies the sooner we get BEV, PHEV or even FCEV going the better as this will reduce the amount of FF used in Australia. Even simple things like taking solar power to places that use FF (mainly Diesel) with batteries. Here is one example!
      This place when from 4 million litres Diesel to about 2.6 million litres
      http://www.kingislandrenewableenergy.com.au/

      • Hettie

        I was just about to say, why is no one talking about our pathetically low fuel reserve?
        If China were to decide to get nasty in the South China Sea, the country would grind to a halt within three week. what better argument could there be for rapid uptake of EVs/

    • Mike Dill

      A five percent reduction in demand caused the last oil price collapse in 2008. That was about 4 million barrels per day on a global basis.

      • jeffhre

        Approaching $5 a gallon (USD) caused the economic collapse that caused the reduction in demand, that caused the oil price collapse.

        In 2008 very few companies that relied on transportation services, had a business plan that would function with petrol approaching $5 a gallon. This rendered pink slips in transport companies as common as pay checks.

        Can you imagine US Airline employees going in to work in 2008 noticing the price of fuel had risen from an average (and then relatively high) price of $2.80 in 2007, to spikes of over $4.00 in 2008. Contrast that with $2.42 in 2017. Airline bankruptcies in 2008.

        Aloha Airlines,
        Big Sky,
        ATA Airlines,
        Skybus Airlines,
        Frontier Airlines,
        Sun Country Airlines,
        Primaris Airlines,
        Air Midwest,
        Gemini Air Cargo.

    • Jolly Roger

      Yes and harking back to ECO 101 I suppose you could argue that as demand drops supply will also drop until they meet again on the curve. In the process many oil companies will go broke and eventually the military ( governments ) and the airlines will need to get into the oil business themselves ( because no-one else wants to anymore ) to keep up their own supply, mainly of aviation fuel..

      • jeffhre

        Or the bio-fuel business, once price parity is reached with low volume petroleum based fuels.

  • Tom

    You didn’t have to make a clickbait headline.

  • The_Lorax

    We’ll be lucky to see a sub $35k EV on sale in this country before 2022. The Model 3 won’t get here until 2020 and will be $60k plus, the Nissan Leaf will be $50k plus, the Zoe is $45k for a micro car, and the Ioniq EV will be $40k plus if it ever gets here. Until we see a Corolla-sized EV under $35k with a 400km range the market share will be in the low single digits at best. A BEV market share of 80% by 2027 is a tad optimistic.

  • RobertO

    Hi All, Just remember that if our coal ash group (RWNJ’s or babbott, cow poo choice or others in the COALition) have their way we will not have BEV and even PHEV. for at least 10 years. However if the Fed Gov change we could see lots of help like they did in NZ

    http://www.windenergy.org.nz/store/doc/NZWEA-AGM2017-Liz-Yeaman-presentation.pdf

  • Pete

    When you factor in the push towards autonomous vehicles, then somewhere in the next 10 – 15 years, many governments will push ‘rebates’ to upgrade to hybrid/EV vehicles and those will be fully autonomous. Winds of change……

  • The_Lorax

    Nissan Leaf can be had for $22,490 USD with federal govt tax credit less state rebates (e.g. $2,500 in California). That would bring the Leaf sticker price down to $19,990 USD. That kind of pricing would make a difference in Australia. Unfortunately, the Leaf will be north of $50K AUD when (and if!) they sell it here. We are a very stupid country.
    https://www.nissanusa.com/vehicles/electric-cars/leaf.html

  • Pentae

    Hey Rob, good list of points and you’re on the right track but even if your points are all true its still hyperbole to say there will be “no new petrol cars sold in 2027” – Even with all the benefits EV vehicles bring there will always be a contingent of the population that are old fashioned and it will take almost a full generation to stop certain people wanting to buy gas guzzlers.

    There’s another factor not being considered – oil prices. Once EV’s are selling at an incredible rate there will be far less demand for petrol, less demand globally for oil, and oil prices will come down making ICE vehicles cheaper to run.

    The correct assumption is that EV’s will become a majority of consumer vehicle consumption but ICE vehicles in some fashion or another (as you said, hybrid) will be sold probably until 2050 or so.

    • George Darroch

      They’ll be sold until they’re banned. The collapse of petrol stations across Australia will help accelerate the process.

      • Rod

        Petrol stations don’t need to sell petrol to survive. Nowadays they make more money from the grocery side and other “attractions” like coffee.
        If they are smart they will encourage fast chargers.

        • George Darroch

          There’s a market for that, obviously. But will people still visit if they’re not also stopping for gas? I’m not so sure.

      • Greg Hudson

        The collapse has already started in Melbourne due to the high price of real estate. Owners can make far more money by selling out to an apartment developer. Petrol stations are getting harder to find already.

        • George Darroch

          The cost of remediating the site is large though, so it often requires a large development to make it worthwhile.

          • Greg Hudson

            Remediation is a virtual no cost option these days, because it is not necessary… The apartments I’m seeing being built have 2 or 3 levels of car parking underneath (i.e. the fuel tanks have to be removed anyway). The cost of removal is built in to the price the Chinese students are paying for the apartments. Or in the case of Doncaster (Vic) rich people who have no idea what ‘was’ under them, and don’t care anyway. The views are spectacular (being on top of the 2nd highest spot in Melbourne).

    • Rob BDR529

      I expect pressure on new ICE car sales will come from 3 areas in 2025 onwards, first the lower total cost of ownership of an electric vehicle, secondly the almost equal cost but better versatility of a hybrid vehicle, and thirdly for those that can’t do without the noise and smell of a full ICE drivetrain there will be a market place full of low price second hand vehicles, these are near new vehicles that are in good shape but have lost value very quickly to the the far higher running costs, there will be plenty to keep the diehards happy but too many to make selling new ones economical.

      • Mike Shurtleff

        Yes. There will not be enough market for new ICEVs to keep manufacturing alive.

    • Rob BDR529

      The price of oil can only go so low before exploring and drilling reduces, add in the transport and other charges that go with fuel prices and I can’t see petrol getting much cheaper than it has been over the past few years, in the mid 2020s fuel would have to be 80 cents a litre to compete with 50 cents a Kwh electricity, I can’t see fuel ever going below $1.00 a litre again but I can see lots of home owners making electricity cheaper than 25 cents a Kwh.

    • Mike Shurtleff

      I disagree. EVs are fun to drive and most people will go with the better choice for their wallet.

    • Hettie

      As demand collapses, will auto manufacturers go on building ICE just for the fanciers?

  • Barry Alternative Fact Covfefe

    Your article is quite correct but the timeline is open to debate

  • Hettie

    So many words written about the timeline for EV takeover.
    How we do love to speculate.
    This discussion should be archived for reexamination when EVs achieve 7% market penetration.

  • Ian Porter

    Tend to agree with the timeline and assumptions. There is also so much research going into battery technology at this time. The likely disruption will be early and significant. Many markets will be comes skewed as a result. Touching on transport fuel supply chains, refineries will be battling to provide the various markets for jet fuel, gasolene and distillate in the relevant ratios demanded by markets. This will create shortfalls feeding back into electrification demand. It can all happen so quickly.

  • “Robert Dean is an owner of both electric and ICE vehicles” a hummer?

    • Rob BDR529

      Ford Falcon, it sucks Nitro, phase 4 heads, 600 horsepower through the wheels, it’s the Ducks guts.

  • Mark Melocco

    2 years ago I struggled to replace my ice mower with a battery electric replacement.
    At most big hardware stores there were 30 ice mowers for every electric mower.
    Was at Bunnings this week and the main mower isle was almost exclusively electric powered, with the ice’s relegated to the isle behind.
    Electric mowers are no more expensive, have enough range and are far simpler and reliable so it’s is already a no brainer.
    I agree with the author we will be in the same position with EV’s very soon, the only potential stumbling block is lack of public charging but I can see signs that this is changing too.

  • Radbug

    It will hit home when the petrol stations start to close. Let get this quite clear. The outer suburbs of Australian cities, the very areas that politician say will alleviate the property bubble, are based on cheap, high energy per weight, fuel, ie., petrol. This implies that EV’s mean much smaller cities and/or much denser cities, but what will happen to the capital values, the home equity, the housing loans & the loan issuing banks in the existing outer suburbs when the petrol stations in those suburbs start to close?

    • Hettie

      There are so many errors in your assumptions!
      1. The cost per km to run EVs is way lower than for ICE vehicles
      2. The average commute in capital cities is a bit less than 60 km round trip
      3. Most EVs have a range of around 200km, and the range of new models is increasing rapidly
      3. Charging stations are proliferating
      4. Owners of EVs are highly likely to have rooftop solar systems. Charging the car at home at the weekend will be virtually cost free for them.
      5. Councils and shopping centres will be installing charging stations, as will big employers.

      This all adds up to rapid uptake of EVs.

      • Radbug

        Hettie all of what you have written doesn’t dispute that ICE cars will have fewer petrol stations, which then impose greater & greater inconvenience upon ICE car owners!

        • Hettie

          All the more incentive to make their next new car an EV.
          Besides, the petrol stations, according to reports in comments here, are migrating to the outer suburbs, where longer commutes mean they are more needed.

      • Radbug

        Hettie, you ignore Pareto effects, ie., that 10% of the car using public consume 50% of the fossil fuel. I read of a Coles executive. His job was moved to Sydney, but his wife wanted to remain in Brisbane. Solution: Coles paid for his flight down to Sydney and paid for his return flight to Brisbane. Every working day! EV’s, money-wise, don’t work for the very high mileage car users, nor the very low mileage car users. EV’s work for the “sweet spot” users, your “average” mileage car users, say, 40% of total car users.

        • Hettie

          Oh please! A 1:5 ratio has nothing to do with Pareto, which specifies 20:80. 20% of customers provide 80% of the profits. Another 20 % of customers provide 80% of the problems. And it is stupid for sales staff to spend 80% of their time on the problem 20%. Rather spend that 80% of time on the profitable 20%, because that’s where the commission comes from.
          Your fifo husband is a sample of one. Totally insignificant.
          Do you have a twin brother named Rick?
          No further correspondence will be entered into.

  • Matt_Grey

    In eight and a half years no ICEs? You’re living in a fantasy world.

    • Hettie

      You are missing one small but very important word.
      That word is *new*
      All newly manufactured cars will be EVs.
      Car makers bring out new models every year. With much of Europe and the UK now having incentives for EVs and bans on new ICE vehicles after 2030 or 2040, the emphasis of those new models will be increasingly on EVs. Prices will continue to fall as betteries, a very big component of EV cost, get cheaper.
      Of course there will still be ICE vehicles around for about another ten years, the usual life span of cars, and a few will last much longer, but in 20 years ICE vehicles will be collectors’ items.