Just last week, Liberal Senator Andrew Bragg described the Liberal Party as a party of government. That is the triumph of hope over reality.
With the Liberal Party today walking away from any genuine commitment to action on climate change, it is turning into a critically endangered species. Not even fundamental reform of Australia’s environmental laws will save it from extinction unless the political party rapidly changes direction.
According to ABC reports, the Australian National University’s comprehensive Electoral Study has shown a dramatic fall in support for the Liberal Party among younger voters who will soon form the majority of the electorate.
21% of millennial voters, born between 1981 and 1996, have indicated support for the Liberal and National Parties combined. 27% of Gen Z voters (born after 1996) have indicated support for the Coalition. Concern about climate change is at the centre of this rush away from the Liberal and National Parties.
According to the ABC, “the Coalition won just 10 per cent of first preference votes from those who listed climate change or the environment as one of their top two election issues and lost to Labor 87-13 in two-party preferred terms.”
70 per cent of generation Z voters and 66 per cent of millennial voters said it was a “very” or “fairly” serious threat.
Kos Samaras, Director of leading pollster Redbridge Group, has said: “For most younger Australians, Net Zero has become a simple proxy for one question – do you support action on climate change or not?
When conservatives argue against Net Zero, they only reinforce the brand they’ve built over the past decade, a brand that, in the eyes of younger Australians signals climate scepticism and resistance to progress.”
The climate change and energy policy announced by the Liberal Party today will only reinforce that “climate scepticism ad resistance to progress”, to put it politely.
It has agreed to extend the life of coal-fired power stations, expand the Capacity Investment Scheme to include coal and gas, scrap penalties for polluters under Australian Government climate change and energy policies and failed to outline any specific steps to actually reduce emissions.
A number of so-called “moderate” Liberal Party MPs and Senators urged the Party to adopt support for net zero by 2050 and some “moderate” Liberal Party Shadow Ministers, including Andrew Bragg, Tim Wilson, Anne Ruston and Maria Kovacic said they may resign from the Opposition frontbench if the Opposition move away from net zero.
At the time of writing, no Liberal Party MP has indicated they will resign from the frontbench or from the political party. Senator Ruston has indicated she will not be resigning as Shadow Minister.
Some of these MPs will argue the Liberal Party is still committed to the Paris climate change agreement but this is rhetoric only.
The Paris Agreement specifically requires governments to increase their emission reduction commitments every 5 years. That means the starting point for climate change policy is a 62-70% reduction in emissions by 2035, with successive governments increasing their emissions reduction targets from then on.
This is a major test for so-called “moderate” Liberal Party MPs and Senators.
The so-called “moderates” have effectively lost every climate change debate in the Liberal Party over the past decade, leading to a successful argument that a vote for them is a vote for Barnaby Joyce and Matt Canavan.
This is an argument that will be put on steroids at the next federal election, unless the Liberal Party dramatically changes direction and stop echoing National Party policies.
The Liberal Party’s time is probably up at a national level. Extinction looms.
