Despite Covid, the LGC market has seen the same issues play out as those that occurred in 2019, while rooftop solar boom has removed fears of a shortfall in STCs.
Projected LGC surplus soars from 2021 onward, and only a change of policy or an eye-watering increase in voluntary demand will prevent that outcome from playing out.
Confusion over RET regulation changes has revealed large cracks in the faith of the renewable energy industry, which – still recovering from the Abbott years – is spooked by the National Energy Guarantee, and possible future policy changes, just as the market is hitting its stride.
LGC prices ended April at $78.25, a 12 month low and a drop of 8% on March’s close.
Impact of decision of some liable parties to pay penalty rather than meet RET obligation felt in February – although the extent of this was lost in subsequent political volatility. Meanwhile, project commitments continue to flow.
Renewable energy certificates edge closer to penalty price and the point of no new generation.
The Clean Energy Regulator targets for small scale rooftop solar equates to around 760MW for 2016, an increase on the amount installed last year.
Changes to the STC system could result in the ‘perfect storm’ for rooftop solar, warn solar developers.
After several years of volatility the Small-scale Technology Certificate (STC) market that governs solar incentives is now tracking to target.