At the start of 2020 forecasts were predicting the year would end with an LGC surplus in the millions, but current trends mean we could easily wind up with a deficit.
Energy efficiency markets volatile as proposed scheme changes and Covid-19 wreak havoc.
Despite Covid, the LGC market has seen the same issues play out as those that occurred in 2019, while rooftop solar boom has removed fears of a shortfall in STCs.
Projected LGC surplus soars from 2021 onward, and only a change of policy or an eye-watering increase in voluntary demand will prevent that outcome from playing out.
After an eye-watering rally, VEEC market settles in mid $30s awaiting government’s response. Meanwhile, a waiting game of sorts is also playing out north of the border.
The second half of 2019 has seen a healthy improvement in prices in Victoria and NSW energy efficiency markets, despite a shock expansion in one state.
Seismic shift in LGC market fundamentals caused big rise in prices across second half of year, while STC experienced some volatility within narrower trading range.
VEEC submissions grew sharply across May, perhaps due to backlogged supply, or to solar installs hitting a government wall. In NSW, ESC pricing remained stubbournly stable.
With the 2020 Large-scale Renewable Energy Target all but met, attention is focused on the LGC surplus in the pivotal 2019 compliance year.
Changes to product requirements and compliance matters, plus the election in New South Wales, have made for interesting times in NSW and Victoria energy efficiency markets.