Solar revolution can't be stopped, but it can be slowed | RenewEconomy

Solar revolution can’t be stopped, but it can be slowed

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Australia’s solar revolution is deemed “unstoppable”, but incumbent utilities are doing everything they can to slow it down: pushing up fixed charges, hiking metering fees, cutting solar tariffs, adding charges to solar households, and introducing tariffs that are not really cost reflective.

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Almost everywhere, and from nearly every corner, we hear the refrain: The solar revolution is coming and it is unstoppable. There is now general agreement – from analysts, researchers, the industry, market pundits – that energy markets are being transformed, and half our power needs will be self-generated within a few decades.

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Unstoppable thought this force may well be, it seems it can certainly be slowed. And recent Australian pricing decisions suggest that the incumbents are doing their level best to make hay, not so much while the sun still shines, but while policy and pricing regulators are happy to keep moving the goal posts to protect revenue streams.

The forecasts seem emphatic. The Australian Energy Market Operator predicts that rooftop solar will amount to 25,000MW by 2025. Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts 37,000MW by 2040. Investment banking giant UBS suggested, in one “dream” scenario, solar could provide half the world’s power needs by 2050.

Even the owner of Australia’s biggest coal-fired generator concedes that half of all demand will be met by distributed energy, mostly solar on rooftops of homes and business, and through battery storage. The big “gentailers” – both in Australia and overseas – are busily revising their business models to make sure they are not left behind.

Over the last few weeks, however, there have been some disturbing trends, suggesting that the solar industry has a major battle on its hands, even if the flagship policy, the Renewable Energy Target, remains untouched for small-scale installations, the Abbott government seems intent on giving big solar a boost.

The problem occurs at the meter, and on consumer bills. Across Australia, pricing regulators and utilities have taken action to protect their revenues and make rooftop solar less appealing for consumers. They have done this through a bunch of different means.

In South Australia, the grid operator has applied to slap solar households with higher charges, and West Australia’s state-owned utilities have been considering a similar measure.

Tariffs are also being skewed to protect utility revenues and reduce the incentive to install solar. In Queensland and Victoria, the tariff paid for exports of excess solar power back into the grid are being slashed.

In Queensland, fixed tariffs have been jacked up, removing the incentive for consumers to use less electricity or to install solar. For low energy users, particularly pensioners, half the bill is now unavoidable. New limits are also being placed on solar installations in regional areas.

In NSW, something called “declining block” tariffs are about to be introduced, where rates are actually higher for a set amount of consumption, and then decline afterwards. It is akin to a fixed charge, and does not encourage efficiency.

Elsewhere, metering charges are also being jacked up to make it more expensive for households to install solar. New “so called” cost reflective tariffs are being introduced, but are being criticised for being anything but “cost reflective”, because they seek to reclaim past gold plated investments, not new ones.

The NSW government-owned operators are also appealing a recent regulatory ruling that would reduce the amount of costs that they can re-coup from consumers – a move that is effectively trying to lift prices and boost the revenues as the government prepares the assets for sale.

The one piece of good news has been the instant tax write-off for small businesses, but this can only be used on business premises. Still, local communities are trying to push through initiatives that include shared solar, community-owned plants, and even going off the grid.

Elsewhere, solar installers are also being squeezed by the big energy players, with big balance sheets into the solar market. The majors, such as Origin Energy and AGL, are now offering rooftop solar for free, and then offering to sell the output back to the consumer at a deep discount to grid costs. Origin even got an extra $100 million in finance from the Clean Energy Finance Corporation to expand its activities.

As one analyst put it to RenewEconomy, “there is a lot of complicated stuff going on and it is difficult to work out who is doing what, and who is going to emerge as the winner, and who will be the losers.”

That, he noted, is kind of by design. The “confusion is profit” mentality rules, but behind the scenes there is a massive but as yet unstated battle occurring between network operators and retailers. This is largely over who will capture the “value” offered by the big shift to solar and storage. Both parties have massive sunk investments to recoup, and both play in deregulated and regulated markets.

In the background, the policy and pricing regulators are ducking for cover. The Australian Energy Market Commission has set out a framework of rules, without being specific. The Australian Energy Regulator has a series of processes, but with the same problem.

As our analyst explained, “no one wants to make a decision. The networks are throwing up anything to see what sticks, and the retailers are just passing on the costs.”

The constantly moving picture around tariffs – and the huge variations between states and distribution areas – makes it hard for consumers to judge the value of installing solar, or battery storage. Most of the forecasts vary the caveat that tariffs will not become a roadblock.

Interestingly, this week Paula Conboy – the new head of the AER, who last year noted the rise of the “pro-sumer” and the need to set returns and tariffs that benefit consumers, rather than the incumbent network operators – has foreshadowed plans to get at least some long-term visibility in tariff structures.

Rather than a piecemeal, year by year approach, the AER wants to build in tariff structures that will be binding for a regulatory control period (typically five years), and any changes to tariff structures will need AER approval.

That may be good for visibility for consumers, and to help make decisions about whether solar and storage is a good deal or not, but it may also lock in poor outcomes.

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  1. barrie harrop 5 years ago

    Utilities in death spiral ,the more pushback on solar,the harder the impact once the solar/storage option is viable, about 2–3 year away it will all tears owning poles/wires.

    • wideEyedPupil 5 years ago

      making community acquisition of network assets a more likely possibility? then we could see some value for money out of these important infrastructure assets.

    • phred01 5 years ago

      It’s not rocket science the strategy is counter productive. If by 2050 half of the homes are solar then battery technology would have hi capacity a good proportion will defect to off grid…… So, the end game will be stranded assets.

  2. mick 5 years ago

    just a comment 5yr ago I went off grid for philosophical and financial reasons,prices in sa aren’t great and when they want to charge you 10 grand/stobie pole its not a hard decision,the point im trying to make is that ive lived hassle free for years and life is truly too short to waste time on minor things like abbot and co basically if you are thinking about dropping off grid DO IT

    • Mike Dill 5 years ago

      As others are stating here going off-grid may be the most rational thing to do in a few years. The problem is the bureaucracy. Going off grid in the future may be difficult as they will find a way to raise your taxes to pay for their mistakes.

      In a number of places it is now the law that you pay fixed water and sewer charges, even if you are not connected. I expect that they will try to do this with electricity as well.

      • mick 5 years ago

        yeah mate you are probably right at the minute I took the attitude stuff em for now and people running the the show find will enlightenment in the future having said that my nearest neighbour is 50k away

    • Emma 5 years ago

      Hi Mick – would you mind dropping me an email at [email protected] or buzzing me on 0409 040 499 (I can call you back if you prefer) – we’re launching a new off-gridding magazine and I’d really like to speak to you. Cheers, Emma

  3. mick 5 years ago

    I realise this is the wrong place but I feel that views will(should) be aligned-bp oil spill reparations completed- what if it was the reef?

    • john 5 years ago

      Just look up Halliburton and who owns it for a saving of $500 million it has cost BP 35 Billion sobering bad business decision.

      • mick 5 years ago

        yep they got away with it

        • john 5 years ago

          You are so correct Mick
          Home free and laughing but BP gets the blame well I suppose they were the company who approved the procedure.

          • wideEyedPupil 5 years ago

            BP were pushing contractors including but not limited to Haliburton to take shortcuts. BP are also culpable and ultimately they knew that big shortcuts were being taken that could have devastating results if mishap occurred. Mishap did occur.

          • mick 5 years ago

            have a look at black water

      • mick 5 years ago

        thinking about it Halliburton/cheney made a few dollars out of Iraq war

        • john 5 years ago


  4. john 5 years ago

    As I see it what is going to happen is that fixed charges will continue to go up this is the component covering transmission and distribution to the consumer so that the amount of money spent building a network can obtain a 10% return this is going to push costs for connection ever higher.
    Is this reasonable when the expend was made to cover an expected demand that is not going to eventuate?
    The State Governments who spend this money should take a haircut because of a decision to over capitalise a business that did not take into consideration the changing market place they were working in.
    Trying to monetise the asset is only going to cause more harm to the end user.
    Framing regulations that restrict a consumer from mitigating their reducing one of the highest costs of living is only going to hasten a move to alternate solutions.
    The logical solution is Solar and Storage.
    Cost analysis will show that it is more economical to move away from the grid this is the obvious conclusion from the myopic introduction of high cost of connection charges.
    Retailers would be well advised to make sure they have a business plan to keep customers connected and mitigate this happening.

  5. Humanitarian Solar 5 years ago

    From a technician’s perspective the introduction of new charges can be offset by:
    A) the impact of slashed Export Tariffs can be offset by getting the Solar Installer to purposefully design for “self consumption” or the householder using their own power first and then charging a few batteries, then finally as a last resort selling excess to the grid. If householders wish to focus on this strategy, there are even Inverter/chargers designed to offer a variety of styles of interacting with the grid and self consumption are among those styles. These styles can be changed if the industry goal posts change. The type of inverter/charger and how intelligent it is, enables the household to choose the grid interaction style which works best for the household in different policy environments.
    B) unfortunately higher Daily Supply Charges can only be addressed by including the future possibility of moving to being off grid in the future. This can be done by informing your Solar Installer, that you wish to begin with a first stage of a Solar System, while including system hardware and design to allow for future expansion. This expansion should evaluate a custom install of your property as a whole, all your potentially promising rooftops and all your buildings linked in a microgrid, hence your individual solar systems working together. Having a plan for the whole property helps in the decision of where to best begin and gives additional hope for the future.
    C) In my humble opinion, raised usage charges are best approaches by installing a few batteries and using these batteries to 1) provide an emergency backup feature in the event of a power outage, 2) iron out peaks and troughs of daily usage spikes eliminating the unfavourable export/import cycle by enabling solar panels to keep up with the overall power needed throughout the day, 3) transitioning the household to off peak electricity rates as much as possible.
    D) Hiked prices for the installation of “smart meters” can only be avoided by not installing a smart meter. Installing a smart meter is only necessary if you plan to export excess electricity to the grid. If you wish to gear toward maximising “self consumption” then perhaps the cost of the smart meter install is not presently merited. Your Solar Installer may need to calculate if a smart meter is worth it for your preferred installation, its size, the amount of electricity you plan to export and how long you wish to be on the grid.
    For INSTALLERS, I really think there needs to be website with a section for installers to discuss, post, open sourcing their knowledge base to more effectively compete with the big energy players. The upfront solar installation costs need to be brought down as much as possible as soon as possible, helping families begin as soon as possible by being able to effectively break the solar install of their whole property into discrete stages. This website space also needs to bridge the divide between Installers and Families by having an educational role. This will help give families options, reduce feelings of being overwhelmed financially or feeling daunted. Otherwise I fear families may unfortunately resort to leasing their roofspace to big energy players, thus undermining small business installers and producing a solar installation geared for big energy companies and the grids profits, not for Australian families. Hence there needs to be a space for Installers to open source their knowledge base, build their approaches and to have an educational role so families can participate in the design of their properties solar system, being mentored by their installer. Installers need to give up any short sighted cognitive mercantilism of their approaches and trust giving knowledge to the community really is in theirs and their communities mutually beneficial best interests.

    • MaxG 5 years ago

      I disagree with most of this post… very short-sighted. In some states a smart meter is a must to connect solar, exporting or not. While any measure to make solar difficult can be countered, in most case it does not make sense to do so. The only true answer is going off-grid. Given the new meter and approval fees, off-grid is even more appealing.
      In short: with grid-connected PV you have to pay all associated costs, negatively impacting any financial consideration. With off-grid you have a nigher initial cost, but you do not pay any of the associated fees, which makes this alternative far more interesting and palatable.
      This all changes, if the public decides to claim back electricity as public utility.
      It all turned sour for the public when the ‘public’ was privatised.

      • Humanitarian Solar 5 years ago

        Hi Max, in principle I agree off grid is the far easiest way to avoid all the hassle. Off grid systems can also be completed in stages, so the system could be expanded as more money becomes available.

        • Humanitarian Solar 5 years ago

          Another interesting way a solar installer around here is getting little off grid solar systems going, is for the man shed down the back of the property, where it’s too far or awkward to dig in an electrical cable. In these applications, lights and a beer fridge only need a couple solar panels, a cable dropped to the solar regulator feeding a couple batteries, directly running 12/24V lighting, 12/24V fridge or the local installer also specialises in converting 240V fridges to 12/24V. This gives the shed lighting and a fridge without going to the expense of buying an inverter. It’s an example of how anyone can implement little off grid solar systems. Since it’s not connected to anything, no approval necessary.

          • MaxG 5 years ago

            I question where the benefit for the consumer is in that?
            Every time a tradie visits your place it is costing money. If you stick with low voltage you are legally allowed to dabble in it yourself. I can’t recall the rules, but somewhere it states over a certain wattage ?500W? it is no longer legal. My point is talking about the average household and not the exceptional DIYer. For the former, a well designed solution from the onset is the only efficient way forward. It costs now and repeaps the benefits from the now onwards.

          • Humanitarian Solar 5 years ago

            I agree its probably cheaper in the installation costs to complete the whole solar system in one hit, however since you’re referring to off grid solar systems, unless you have a really well designed passive solar house with really efficient electrical appliances and alternative ways of heating in the winter, going off grid will be in tens of thousands of dollars. How many Australians can afford that?

          • MaxG 5 years ago

            What Australians can afford is a matter of preferences. Build a house with along-term view, choose a passive design, instead of a McMansion, hip roofs with space for solar, double-glazing instead of a media room, and the list goes on. Save the cost for A/C and stick it into insulation, etc. Heaps of ways to afford ‘affordable’ living. Yes, my system did cost me 36k$, but I am not paying $2,500 p.a. for electricity any more. Worst case, in 15 years ‘ m laughing for the next 10 to follow. With the regular increases in electricity cost, it may not take that long… 🙂
            It is a matter of choice, cheap fridge now, and power bill in quarterly instalments or pay now for immediate savings.
            Over and out 🙂

          • mick 5 years ago

            cant help myself over means tx complete reply required out means tx complete no more correspondence entered into a dichcotomy or double negative not sure cheers

          • Humanitarian Solar 5 years ago

            Hi Max, going 100% green and off grid is a huge commitment and a huge win for the environment. Being a way shower building new technologies also slowly brings down the cost of those new technologies for everyone. Thank you for contributing valuable funds to keep the solar industry moving forward. At the other end of the spectrum of solar installs, I think Grid-Connect installs now encourage utilities to abuse people and are no longer suitable for this time in our collective evolution. In my humble opinion, Hybrid Solar Systems are a mid-way step that give a chance for there to be a fair grid for those areas that remain suitable for a grid. Every person that goes off Grid is a potential sober warning to utilities to value their customer base.

        • MaxG 5 years ago

          🙂 I am sure there are a few ways to go about progressing in stages; or smaller installations becoming bigger. The latter usually does not work, as initial cheap bits need to be replace with more expensive and more capable ones.
          In any case, a staged approach will always be more expensive in economical terms.

          • Humanitarian Solar 5 years ago

            That’s true for two smaller inverter/chargers being more than double the cost of one big inverter/charger, then again two gives a backup feature if one goes down.
            Not true for solar arrays because each roof facing a different direction or having a different slope, needs its own Solar Array with its own dedicated Charge Controller/Regulator. e.g.. an east facing roof space will perform better in the morning and the west roof the afternoon, whereas simply connecting all solar panels together on the one Charge Controller means they will all perform at the slowest pace of the least performing panels.
            Not true for batteries if the Inverter/Charger is capable of managing dual battery banks. I can’t see a problem getting one battery bank at a time.

          • MaxG 5 years ago

            Your array problem is solved with multiple MPPTs. Stock standard inverts cater for that.
            One bank at a time adds up complexity. e.g. another bank requires another battery management system. More cables, more batteries, more cost, compared to doing it right in the first place.

          • Humanitarian Solar 5 years ago

            I’m only aware of standard Grid-Connect Inverters with multiple MPPT’s hence the capability to effectively handle different sets of solar panels for different roofs. However standard Charge/Controllers in the hundreds of dollars usually only have one MPPT (maximum power point tracker). Hence one would need to buy another such Charge/Controller for each new roof of solar panels (with different slope or aspect). So there’s no additional cost staging solar arrays for different roofs.
            Yes its slightly more costly getting a battery management system capable of measuring two battery banks though less than a hundred dollars, when the battery banks themselves are thousands. Same with cables, we’re talking a few dollars extra for the convenience of staging the most expensive part of the solar system.

      • mick 5 years ago

        I think this bloke is being far sighted its possible that a powerwall of this gen or next should be capable of interrogating various inverters for some sort of other to provide most/all data wanted

    • Chris Fraser 5 years ago

      That is interesting. Do you know brand name inverters which offer all the following;-
      1) Self-consumption priority then battery charging,
      2) Battery charging priority then self-consumption,
      3) Export priority – and assuming the DNSP has put a cap on your kW exporting – self-consumption then battery charging ?

      • Humanitarian Solar 5 years ago

        Hi Chris, I’m not a solar installer and hence I’m not up to date on all the various inverter/chargers out there. Doing research for my own purposes, I’ve found inverter/chargers have varied in price depending upon how easy they are to program between one style of interacting with the grid and another. The more expensive inverter/chargers seem to have more options for when they do and don’t access the grid, giving people more precise control. Good quality inverter/chargers can have more of their mates added later to produce more output power and I think those features are important for future expansion. One challenge I’ve found is different installers have their favourite or preferred brand or brands, as the technology is becoming more complex and specialised. Thankfully all inverter/chargers appear to be evolving to tackle this primary challenge of effectively interacting with the grid. Since solar really is a specific field of expertise, I personally would not make specific recommendations of kit. I would imagine most installers would give you a free hour or so of time to recommend a custom system for your property. Purchasing/designing my system involved a few phone calls and numerous emails nailing down the parts list.

      • Humanitarian Solar 5 years ago

        There is a book I was referred to by the solar installer I purchased my gear from called “Solar Success: Complete guide to home and property systems” by Collyn Rivers also

    • Humanitarian Solar 5 years ago

      It takes a while getting our heads around the basic solar components, so I’ll do a brief summary of how the gear in a Hybrid Solar System works. There’s two main circuits.
      The first is the sun shining its power onto the Solar Panels producing DC which runs down a cable to the Charge Controller/Regulator, which makes the DC suitable to charge your battery bank. So this is how the sun charges the batteries.
      The second circuit is where the Inverter/Charger gets power from a variety of power sources and uses one or a combination of power sources to supply your house with the AC for your power-points. The various power sources the Inverter/Charger can choose between, based upon your wishes are:
      a) batteries fed by solar panels and any other DC source (this is converted from DC to AC by the inverter part of the Inverter/Charger),
      b) the Grid can be routed through the Inverter/Charger to supply the power-points or to top up the batteries when desired,
      c) if the grid is unavailable or there isn’t one, the inverter/Charger can usually autostart a generator which supplies AC which the Inverter/Charger monitors and gives to the power-points or uses excess power to charge the batteries,
      d) some Inverter/Chargers can have more than one AC source e.g. generator and a Grid connected and being managed at the same time,
      So essentially the Inverter/Charger is like an intelligent programmable switch which gets power from both AC and DC sources and distributes the power to where you wish and when you wish.
      In summary I think of the Hybrid Solar System as having two primary electrical circuits, one of the Solar Panels using a Solar Controller to put DC into the batteries, and the other of the Inverter/Charger sourcing and distributing the power where you wish. I’ve heard it said the Inverter/Charger is like the brains of the system and the batteries are like the heart.

  6. Humanitarian Solar 5 years ago

    Going Shopping for Solar Gear:
    This post is designed to assist people to feel comfortable going shopping for solar gear and approaching your local custom solar installer. Recently I purchased the bits for a Hybrid Solar System for $8741 and after the STC rebate the system will come out at about $7821. My house is rented to an aquatic biologist and a hippie and they wanted to live in a house with a solar system and the hippie lent half the cost of the system. I had previously installed a solar system in my campervan and had training as an electronics technician and communication technician, so even though the system cost is a year of savings, I thought it was a doable project. I currently have
    a spinal injury so here reporting the buying process rather than actually unpacking all the boxes and putting it up.
    I have a few buildings on the property and wanted to stage three solar systems in a microgrid and wished to put up the first one. I have a converted garage into a studio with a nice little NE facing roof, so opted to max it out with six A grade Solar Panels (Canadian) 1.5kW $1500, Solar Mounting Frames $345 (they have instructions).
    So the power from the roof comes down a cable to the Solar Regulator which is sized to the solar panels and can charge most types of batteries (including lithium for the future). I chose a brand called Victron (Netherlands) as they had been making robust cost effective gear since 1975 so the Victron Solar Regulator MPPT 150V 70A was $820.
    So the solar panels use the solar regulator to charge the batteries and I made an unconventional decision to install yacht and motorhome batteries in a house because they are good value compared to how long they last. They are also 62kg each so someone can’t run off with them. The house is in a poorish area. I’m installing the batteries in a cool place as battery lifespan can reduce by 50% for each 10 degree rise in temperature, so that’s four Ritar Batteries (China) 200A 12V equals a total of 9.6kW/hour and since I wish to cycle them around 30% that gives about 3kW/hour of usable storage for $2220. I’m going to make up some frames out of steel angle iron to mount them on. The house uses 5.5kW/hour of electricity a day (on the electricity bill). In winter I need 1.5kW/hour of storage to get the house from dusk to 10pm (off peak electricity rates) so 3kW/hour of storage is about double what I need for that goal. In summer I need 2.5kW/hour of storage to get the house from dusk to dawn and thus be able to effectively store and use all the power I’m
    generating. This goal makes the house fairly autonomous from the grid in
    summer. So that’s the main components to enable the sun to charge the
    The only other major component is the Inverter/Charger. Again I chose a Victron as they had been making it the last 30 or 40 years for boats in the Netherlands (harsh conditions) and use in developing countries with a weak grid. Since I’m designing a microgrid composed of three separate solar systems in three buildings, and I needed an identical Inverter/Charger in each building, I opted for a medium sized output with a Victron 3000W (continuous output) 24V (battery bank) 70A (charger) $2150. It
    also has an inbuilt 50A transfer switch, meaning if the Inverter/Charger cannot
    produce enough power from the batteries to run all the household appliances
    that are switched on at any given time, then the Inverter/Charger can rout up
    to an additional 11.5kW from the grid. In the future if I install two other
    Inverter/Chargers the same and connect their AC outputs together (AC coupling)
    they will all produce a total of 9000W of power. This keeps the door open to go
    off grid in the future. The Inverter/Charger is not capable of feeding
    electricity back to the grid. The system is designed for “self consumption” which
    also enables the use of a simple Inverter/Charger. There’s no excess power to
    export and hence no smart meter needed.
    Apart from wire, fuses, isolator switches and cables, there’s a few other components. A Victron Battery Monitor $270 is able to measure two battery banks, the state of charge, time to go and midpoint voltages (checks all batteries in a battery bank are charging equally). A Victron Battery Balancer $140 is able to correct any charging differences among batteries in a battery bank.
    So this little 1.5kW Solar System is designed for less than a 10 year pay back by powering the house fairly autonomously in summer and transitioning the house to off peak electricity rates in winter. Nailing down the parts list took a few phone calls to Springers Solar in Brisbane and a number of emails to experienced staff. I’ve got a few simple house mods to make and a local solar install guy to carry out the final connections. Once done I’ll report back system performance down the track. To anyone who wishes for more information, Collyn Rivers does a good introductory text called “Solar Success: Complete guide to home and property systems” about $50.

    • mick 5 years ago
      • Humanitarian Solar 5 years ago

        Hi Mick, this has happened to me too, the link hasn’t come up in full and so won’t load. Found Victron’s site and its very informative of tech and strategy. What section are you recommending?

        • mick 5 years ago

 I got through with this

          • Humanitarian Solar 5 years ago

            doesn’t seem to allow posting a full link. I found there document “energy unlimited” really interesting which helped me understand how solar has evolved (they’ve been going since 1975 it appears). e.g.. in the old days people powered up the generator to start the biggest load and then in time realised if the batteries were primarily conceptualised as powering the load, then the generator only had to supply the shortfall in renewable inputs, hence the transition away from fossil fuel gradually to solar. The document also says something about the value of DC systems.
            I personally think the evolution is solar, storage, then a rise in DC appliances for households. Solar and storage eliminates the need for a big generator and the grid, whereas new efficient DC appliances would eliminate the need for a high power/expensive inverter. Thats what I reckon the next big cost savings towards solar autonomy will be.

          • mick 5 years ago

            yep tried upper and lower case . and / in several combinations and that worked as well as any,initially found it on a 2007 4wd a bit anal about the nuts and bolts of a system so perhaps unreasonably assumed that everyone would want to read it front to back

        • mick 5 years ago

          yep being fussy I was first interested from a motorhome point of view but I disregard them trying to sell gear and treat the rest as general info

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