Open letter to energy ministers: Release NEG modelling in full

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A group of 23 energy researchers from 11 institutions have called for the full release of National Energy Guarantee modelling.

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The Hon. Guy Barnett MP
The Hon. Lily D’Ambrosio
The Hon. Don Harwin MLC
The Hon. Daniel van Holst Pellekaan MP
The Hon. Dr Anthony Lynham MP
Mr Shane Rattenbury MLA

23 Energy Researchers from 11 Institutions Call for Full Release of National Energy Guarantee Modelling

We, the undersigned, representing many decades of combined experience with energy markets and energy policy, are concerned that the carbon accounting and the reliability mechanisms of the NEG are poorly understood and have not received adequate review by Australia’s community of energy researchers.

The proposed National Energy Guarantee is the most significant change to the National Electricity Market since the implementation of the National Electricity Laws in 1996.

While there is much discussion in the public sphere about the adequacy of the emissions targets, we recognise that matter is not within the domain of the CoAG Energy Council.

This letter is concerned solely with the modelling of the twin mechanisms intended to address the trilemma of reduced emissions, high reliability and low energy costs.

The Energy Security Board’s Final Decision Paper refers to an ACIL Allen study which purports to validate the NEG design.

The paper provides insufficient detail on the assumptions, methodology and results of the study and indeed it is difficult to reconcile the claims with our own understanding of energy market dynamics and the Australian Energy Market Operator’s Integrated System Plan.

We call on the Ministers to request the ESB to release the ACIL Allen modelling in full, including all assumptions that have a bearing on the modelling of price effects, and to provide access to the modelling team, so that we may have the opportunity to peer review the work.

Sincerely,

Dr Martin Belusko
Senior Research Fellow Barbara Hardy Institute, University of South Australia

Dr Stephen Berry
Research Fellow, Barbara Hardy Institute, University of South Australia

Prof. John Boland
Professor of Environmental Mathematics, University of South Australia

Dr Anna Bruce
Senior Lecturer, School of PV and Renewable Energy Engineering
Research Coordinator (Engineering), Centre for Energy and Environmental Markets
University of New South Wales

Dr Roger Dargaville
Senior Lecturer, Renewable Energy, Monash University

Dr Mark Diesendorf
Honorary A/Professor, University of New South Wales

Emeritus Prof. John Foster
School of Economics, The University of Queensland

Dr Evan Franklin
Senior Lecturer, University of Tasmania

Simon Holmes à Court
Senior Advisor, Climate and Energy College, Melbourne University

Prof. Frank Jotzo
Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

Dr Scott Kelly
Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS

Dr Ariel Liebman
Senior Lecturer, Energy Informatics, Monash University

Salim Mazouz
Research Manager, Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU

Iain MacGill
Associate Professor, School of Electrical Engineering and Communications
Joint Director (Engineering), Centre for Energy and Environmental Markets
University of New South Wales

Dylan McConnell
Researcher, Climate and Energy College, Melbourne University

Dr Franziska Mey
Senior Research Consultant at the Institute of Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney

A/Prof. Bruce Mountain
Director, Victorian Energy Policy Centre, Victoria University

Alan Pears AM
Senior Industry Fellow, RMIT

A/Prof Peter Pudney
Associate Research Professor of Industrial and Applied Mathematics, University of South Australia

Prof. John Quiggin
School of Economics, The University of Queensland

Prof. Chris Riedy
Professor of Sustainability Governance, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney

Dr Hugh Saddler
Honorary A/Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU

Dr Liam Wagner
Lecturer in Economics, Griffith Business School, Griffith University

23 Energy Researchers from 11 Institutions Call for Full Release of NEG Modelling 20180731 EMBARGOED
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25 Comments
  1. Pedro 5 months ago

    The response from government should be interesting, and especially how they came up with their numbers.

    • Hettie 5 months ago

      Their response will be a marathon waffle. What they do so well.

  2. Ian 5 months ago

    That lineup of experts would be making the government and their advisors quiver in their shoes if they’re hiding something.

    • Pedro 5 months ago

      Its an impressive line up for sure. Hopefully the opposition jump on board and force the issue through the media.

      • Joe 5 months ago

        Surely the newly cobbled ‘NineFax’ will be all over this with Nine’s resident energy expert Chris Uhlmann leading the chase down on the story.

        • Hettie 5 months ago

          That sarcasm will be over the heads of some readers, Joe. Not those of us who know you, of course.

          • Joe 5 months ago

            Hi Hettie, thanks for that one.

        • rob 5 months ago

          spat my wine at the computer screen on reading your comment Joe!

          • Joe 5 months ago

            A waste of a good tipple

          • rob 5 months ago

            Na first laugh of the day ….was worth it! Plus I own half the winery!

      • Hettie 5 months ago

        Any move by ALP to expose the faults of neg will be an excuse for wedge tactics by Gov’t. ALP have to be so very careful.
        BEST HOPE is the GetUp campaign.

    • Hettie 5 months ago

      What do you mean, IF?

      • Joe 5 months ago

        C’mon Hettie there is no reason to doubt The LNP’s motives, they always tell the truth…don’t they???? Joshie is out and about telling us all that his NEG has widespread broad support and with all that support, no reason for Joshie to be hiding anything. Any contrarians will just be written off as left wing loonies even if they an expert group of intellects.

  3. Dennis Bergmans 5 months ago

    Guarantee that this will not get any airtime on traditional media news outlets.

    • phillyc 5 months ago

      Unfortunately I agree with what you say. I don’t see this getting air time or newspaper inches.

    • solarguy 5 months ago

      And I guarantee you are right.

  4. MaxG 5 months ago

    I am in support of the letter and the people behind it…
    However, I bet the government will not release the report/data/analysis before it has been passed in the party room and COAG; after which they might, when any opposition or ‘reveal’ of dodgy analysis will fall on deaf ears.
    I mean we know the LNP is stupid when it comes to RE, but they certainly know how to fool the people and how to run things behind the scenes to screw Australia out of a reasonable future.

    • Hettie 5 months ago

      The fact remains that unless COAG adopts the policy, it’s a dead duck. And if just a couple of the states insist on seeing the figures, and getting input from the signatories to this letter, refusal by the feds to provide the data will be proof positive of bad faith.

      • MaxG 5 months ago

        🙂 I hope you’re right…
        Lots of hope existed prior to the SA election…

        • rob 5 months ago

          Did you have to mention that Max……. I’m still furious I lost my Jay!

  5. howardpatr 5 months ago

    Will be interesting to see if the state and territory ministers are able to exercise sufficient influence upon the Frydenberg appointed ESB members to release the ACIL Allen study, which they claim purports to validate the NEG design, well before they meet.

    Failure to release such basic but essential information, this week, to those specifically requesting and others, will be an indication of the influence the JAACK Forum, (Joyce, Abbott, Abetz, Canavan and Kelly) and their many followers in the LNP have over Hypocrite Turnbull and Frydenberg.

  6. Chris Fraser 5 months ago

    It’s just like the LNP to avoid transparency, they would prefer to do business with a nod and a wink.

  7. Hettie 5 months ago

    Without the information requested, government is asking the energy ministers to buy a pig in a poke.
    How in the name of reason is it good governance to adopt such an important policy without being able to do the due diligence?
    It seems clear that some of the energy ministers have little understanding of the issues. Little wonder, when Frydenberg and the RWNJs are trying to deceive them on the facts.
    Doesn’t it make you tear your hair out in frustration.

    • solarguy 5 months ago

      I would love the chance to gather them together and shout, “snap out of it geese”!

    • rob 5 months ago

      I’m bald……..lol

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