Know your NEM: Electricity volumes and prices down, but not out | RenewEconomy

Know your NEM: Electricity volumes and prices down, but not out

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Volumes are soft in Australia but it’s a seasonally weak time of year anyway. Any decline in volumes is mostly commercial while household volumes will likely pick up.

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Volumes are soft in Australia, but it’s a seasonally weak time of the year anyway. The following numbers are the “in front of the meter” or “operational demand” that ignores rooftop solar PV.

Figure 2. Source: NEM Review

Regarding pool prices, they are well down both for the calendar year to date and despite the bush fires.

Figure 3. Source: NEM Review

And more obviously in the last 7 days compared to the same week last year.

Figure 4. Source: NEM Review

The spot data are not reflected in futures prices, which I don’t show this week because futures traders see that in a year’s time things will be back to normal. Of course a year is a long time from many people’s perspectives right now.

I suspect the decline in volumes is mostly commercial, household volumes likely picking up and industrial volumes modestly down, eg oil refineries cutting back.

For a point of comparison electricity volumes in China for the combined January- February period (January is not separately reported) were down 10%

Wind and solar combined [VRE] hold about 18% of the total market and that share is still certain to grow strongly as more and bigger projects currently under construction enter the market. Stockyard Hill, for instance, is nearing energization.

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