Australia’s two major coal states, Queensland and New South Wales, are in the midst of a major power supply crunch, as a heatwave and high summertime demand collides with outages at some of the biggest thermal power plants.
In Queensland, households and businesses are being called on to cut their electricity usage over the coming two days – particularly in the afternoon and evening – as heatwave conditions drive record high levels of demand as people switch on their air conditioning.
State network operator Powerlink said on Tuesday morning that Queensland was forecast to reach an electricity peak demand of 10,032MW on Tuesday afternoon, “very close to our 2019 record of 10,044MW and well above our 2021 peak of 9,450MW.”
(UPDATE: That 2019 record was well and truly broken at around midday, with a new high instantaneous native demand of 11,472.3MW recorded at 12:30pm.)
At the same time, hundreds of megawatts of thermal generation are offline in the state, including two units of the Callide coal power station, and all of 750MW of the state’s youngest and “most technically advanced” Kogan Creek Power Station.
“Unfortunately Queensland has several large generators undergoing emergency maintenance which has reduced available supply,” Powerlink’s Simshauser said in a statement on Tuesday.
“I strongly encourage all Queenslanders to keep up to date and consider how you can help by reducing your electricity consumption to prevent outages.
“In the event of supply outages, it is important to note emergency services and other priority groups such as hospitals and nursing homes will be given priority access to electricity supply to ensure that crucial services are available,” he said.
The tight squeeze on the supply side has seen the Australian Energy Market Operator forecast “significant shortages” in power reserves for the state, and warn that it could be forced to use emergency measures if demand surpasses supply.
AEMO is forecasting LOR2 and LOR3 conditions in Queensland this afternoon, signalling a significant shortage in reserves compared to pre-determined requirements. If required, AEMO will activate ‘out of market’ reserves through the Reliability & Emergency Reserve Trader mechanism. pic.twitter.com/KUdChJIrTe
— AEMO (@AEMO_Energy) January 31, 2022
AEMO had issued a forecast Lack of Reserve 3 (LOR3) market notice for Queensland for Tuesday, due to high temperatures and generator unavailability, but later cancelled it and went back to an LOR2 forecast.
A forecast LOR3 means there may not be enough supply to match demand, and if supply cannot be accessed through a contract with its Reliability & Emergency Reserve Trader mechanism (RERT), then load shedding may occur as a last resort.
The RERT allows AEMO to procure emergency reserves of power from the market, to avoid the sort of unplanned blackouts that affected around 375,000 homes and businesses across south-east Queensland in May of last year, after an “explosion” at the Callide C coal fired power station near Biloela in central Queensland.
UPDATE: AEMO initiated the RERT mechanism in Queensland just before 2pm on Tuesday. As the market operator explains here, this means market participants are contracted by AEMO to either use less energy or generate power from their own generators to help AEMO meet the grid reliability standard.
The RERT was dispatched/activated at 17:00hrs 01/02/2022 and is forecast to apply until 21:30 hrs 01/02/2022, AEMO said.
Read David Leitch on what’s causing Queensland power woes, here.
AEMO has also issued a LOR2 for NSW, where a unit of the Liddell coal plant is offline, as well as a unit at the Eraring coal power station. It has also entered into negotiations for RERT contracts in that state.
NSW also notched up its own new electricity market milestone on Tuesday, with instantaneous renewables reaching a record of 6,767MW at 11:55am, up by 735MW from the previous record of 6,031MW on December 21, last year.
And there has been a record for the NEM, too, which achieved maximum instantaneous supply of renewable energy of 17,249MW at 12pm on Tuesday, up by 404MW from the previous high of 16,844MW on December 20 last year.
(Note: This story will be updated as events unfold).
