Australia rooftop solar PV industry in decline as 2015 forecast cut again | RenewEconomy

Australia rooftop solar PV industry in decline as 2015 forecast cut again

Australian rooftop solar PV market continues its decline, with forecast installations now likely to fall 10 per cent from 2014.


Leading solar industry analysts Green Energy Markets have again cut their forecast installation of rooftop solar PV in Australia, saying that total installation for the 2015 calendar year may now be just 732MW.

It is the second time in three months that ]Green Energy Markets have cut their forecast, having reduced it from  830MW to 780MW in July after one of the slowest quarters the sector has seen.

In its latest quarterly report, Green Energy Markets – which tracks the creation of small scale renewable energy certificates – says it is now clear that solar PV creation in 2015 has been “well down” on last year’s levels, when 798MW of rooftop solar PV was installed.

The numbers tally with anecdotal data in the solar industry, which suggests that the household market is particularly tough, with only the commercial-scale market showing any growth. This now accounts for around 25 per cent of the market.

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The forecast number of solar hot water systems in 2015 has also been downgraded slightly to 59,100 systems, which compares to 60,060 systems in 2014.

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  1. nakedChimp 5 years ago

    Would had been nice to see an installed-systems graph right next to the new-additional-system numbers that are shown..

  2. Ian 5 years ago

    Tristan Edis from climate spectator has a similar article to this one but his graph expands on Giles’ graph. Commercial solar systems make up a bigger proportion of total systems installed and the size of these systems is larger. The market for businesses to install solar is relatively new, whereas the household solar market penetrance is already fairly high, plus fixed charges tend to weigh heavily against small installations. Hopefully the rooftop solar market will have enough momentum to carry the industry through until market conditions become more favourable again. Battery storage seems to be the technology to save the solar industry, but will it become financially viable soon enough to rejuvenate the demand for new solar systems? We will ( hopefully) soon see.

    • MaxG 5 years ago

      Meaning, the neoliberal goals have been achieved. Make sure business makes the profit and not consumers.

    • Rockne O'Bannon 5 years ago

      I am seeing exactly this in Japan. It makes sense that, at a lower FIT, larger consumers are going to see the most benefit. In the long run it is going to make the PV market more healthy.

      Japan is doing a lot of store rooftop work, schools, athletic facilities, etc. recently. Better late than never, I guess.

  3. liquidblueocean 5 years ago

    I’m sure there are plenty like me out there, who are waiting a year or two for the battery tech to get considerably better and cheaper. A short wait will make a noticeable difference, so I’m wondering where the tipping point is that waiting buyers will suddenly flood the market.

    • MaxG 5 years ago

      Yes, keep waiting until better things come along…
      I for one am reaping the benefits of independence now.

  4. Rockne O'Bannon 5 years ago

    I think Elon Musk promised that solar storage would be available by the end of summer so that people could get rooftop solar and go offgrid cheaper than paying high utility rates. So… it is the end of October now. I would think now would be the perfect time to sell some units to the Australian market.

    Without those batteries and without a decent FIT, I guess the solar PV market is being left to twist in the wind.

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