New South Wales experienced extreme summer heat on Tuesday, with Sydney Airport reaching 41.5°C and Badgerys Creek in the city’s west hitting 42.5°C.
The scorching conditions pushed native (Underlying) demand – which includes behind-the-meter rooftop PV – to record highs, creating opportunities for renewable energy to shine. Wind and solar set new records, demonstrating the growing role of renewables can have in meeting peak electricity demand.
It follows similar records across the grid over the holiday weekend. See below for more details.
The key NSW renewable and native demand records that fell on Tuesday, January 28, included:
– NSW Wind + Solar Output: 5,136.3 MW at 11:45, up 12.11 MW from the previous record (5,124.2 MW, 8 Nov 2024). A year earlier, it was 4,483 MW, so it represents a 653.1 MW (+14.57%) increase.
– NSW Renewable Energy (RE) Output: 10,160.2 MW at 11:50, up 31.02 MW (+0.31%) from the last record (10,129.1 MW, 8 Nov 2024). Compared to last year’s 8,711 MW, this marks a 1,448.9 MW (+16.64%) jump.
– NSW Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) Output: 10,078.4 MW at 11:50, up 48.43 MW (+0.48%) from the prior record (10,029.9 MW, 8 Nov 2024). One year ago, it was 8,703 MW, an increase of 1,375.5 MW (+15.80%).
– NSW Native (Underlying) Demand: 15,931.1 MW at 14:30, surpassing the previous record of 15,606.7 MW (29 Feb 2024) by 324.37 MW (+2.08%). A year earlier, it was 14,868 MW, a 1,063.4 MW (+7.15%) increase.
Observations and Insights:
1. Minimal Curtailment Supports Renewables: With high demand providing space for additional renewable generation, curtailment of wind and solar was minimal at just 200 MW at time of peak VRE. This highlights how market conditions, not just production capability, influence maximum VRE output. High-demand days create opportunities for extra VRE that might otherwise be curtailed on milder days.
3. Lessons for the Transition: The sharp jumps in maximum VRE output underscore the need for a grid ready to adapt to sudden increases in renewable penetration. This calls for proactive planning in storage, flexibility, and market structures to handle variability and optimise renewable contributions.
3. The Heat Effect: Extreme heat across NSW drove Native Demand to record highs, intensifying grid pressure but also creating a supportive environment for renewable generation.
4. Integration Challenges: As coal retirements accelerate, firming solutions like batteries, pumped hydro, and demand-side flexibility will play a critical role in maintaining stability during high-demand periods.
NSW’s ability to set renewable energy and demand records on a day of extreme heat reflects the progress and potential of the energy transition. The interplay between renewables, market conditions, and demand peaks reveals opportunities for further resilience and flexibility in Australia’s energy system.
On Monday, we noted that the entire main grid, the National Electricity Market (NEM) set new records for Renewable Energy (RE) and Variable Renewable Energy (VRE), showcasing the resilience and growth of Australia’s energy system amidst a severe heatwave.
Temperatures soared across the Eastern Australia, with Wilcannia (NSW) hitting 45.7°C, Melbourne at 41.2°C, and Mildura peaking at 43.4°C. These conditions tested the grid while highlighting the critical role of renewables in managing demand.
Key NEM Renewable Energy Records
– Maximum NEM Renewable Energy (RE): 25,261.3 MW at 13:30 Mon 27-Jan-2025, up 188.08 MW (+0.75%) from the previous record (25,073.2 MW at 11:55 Mon 16-Dec-2024). Year-on-year, RE grew by 3,578.1 MW (+16.5%) from 21,683 MW on 08-Dec-2023.
– Maximum NEM Variable Renewable Energy (VRE): 24,835.3 MW at 13:30 Mon 27-Jan-2025, up 966.65 MW (+4.05%) from the previous record (23,868.6 MW at 12:35 Mon 16-Dec-2024). This represents a year-on-year increase of 3,851.1 MW (+18.34%) from 20,984 MW on 06-Dec-2023.
Observations and Insights
1. Victoria’s Vital Role: Contributing over 7 GW of RE and VRE, Victoria played a crucial part in achieving these records, reflecting its continued investment in renewable energy projects.
2. Heatwave Dynamics: Extreme temperatures across the country pushed electricity demand while challenging infrastructure. Renewables delivered strongly, showcasing their growing reliability even under harsh conditions.
3. Renewable Growth: Year-on-year growth of 16.5% for NEM RE and 18.34% for NEM VRE demonstrates the rapid expansion of utility-scale renewables and rooftop PV. These advancements underline the importance of maintaining momentum in renewable project development.
4. Balancing the Grid: As renewable penetration increases, so does the need for intra-day storage solutions such as batteries and pumped hydro to manage variability and support peak demand.
5. Public Holiday Effect: Lower industrial demand on a public holiday allowed renewables to shine, demonstrating their contribution to the energy mix under varying load profiles.
Victoria’s outstanding contribution, alongside the NEM’s resilience, underscores Australia’s readiness for a renewable future. By leveraging these achievements, we can pave the way for a cleaner, sustainable energy system
