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Graph of the Day – Tesla Powerwall 2 way ahead of competition on price

Finn Peacock
18

tesla_powerwall_2-640x360The technical specifications of the Powerwall 2 have been released and you can read all about them here.  We now know there will be two versions – A DC coupled one which will need a compatible multimode (hybrid) inverter.  And an AC coupled one that can be integrated with any existing or new rooftop solar system, regardless of what type of inverter it has.

In addition, Tesla has released the warranty document for the DC coupled Powerwall 2.  It’s a very good bet the warranty for the AC coupled version will be identical, and it allows us to determine the cost per warrantied kilowatt-hour.

And it is good.

The SolarQuotes Battery Comparison table gives the cost per warrantied kilowatt-hour for over 30 battery systems when fully cycled once per day.  The results are shown in the graph below, and as you can see, both versions of the Powerwall 2 are well ahead of the closest competition.

rsz_image_29-11-2016_at_1026_am

The Powerwall 2 is almost 30% cheaper than its next closest competitor, but the comparison is actually better than the graph makes it appear because the AC version of the Powerwall 2 includes a built in battery-inverter and the DC version includes a built in DC converter while its closest competitors on cost per stored kilowatt-hour do not.

This means the AC Powerwall 2 could installed without any additional hardware while the next 4 battery systems on the graph would require a separate battery-inverter to be installed the same way.

But the 7th system from the left, the Enphase AC Battery, does include its own battery-inverter and can be used with any rooftop solar system, just as the AC version of the Powerwall 2 can.

While the Powerwall 2 is still not cheap enough for the large majority of people to save money by installing one, it is possible that some large users of electricity with 5 kilowatts or more of rooftop solar will be able to save money by installing one, so the introduction of the Powerwall 2 marks the point where the economics of on-grid energy storage starts to favour households rather than just the people selling batteries.

See also: Tesla price shock: Solar and battery storage as cheap as grid power and Solar and battery storage beat best gird offers by one quarter in South Australia

Finn Peacock is Founder & CEO at SolarQuotes

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18 responses to “Graph of the Day – Tesla Powerwall 2 way ahead of competition on price”

  1. trackdaze Avatar
    trackdaze

    That price is on par with gross cost of supply. With battery prices falling at well over 10% per annum it will only be a few short years before mass adoption.

    Look for some further obstruction in the form of grossly inflated fixed network costs or even disconnection costs rather than enabling exports to dampen peaks or reduce transmission over large distances

    1. Brunel Avatar
      Brunel

      The media really need to visit some off-grid mobile phone towers now and record HD footage of the diesel generator starting up at sunset – before the diesel generators are made redundant by cheap batteries.

      1. Mike D Avatar
        Mike D

        The majority of the off-grid cell towers in the USA already have solar PV, and lead-acid batteries, which are being changed out as the batteries reach the end of their lifespans. The diesel generator is there still as a backup, but runs only when the sun does not shine for more than a day.

        1. Brunel Avatar
          Brunel

          I doubt that electrons from a lead acid battery are cheaper than electrons from a diesel generator.

          1. Mike D Avatar
            Mike D

            You are right, the electrons are the same price, but getting them to move costs money.

            Lead acid batteries can be had for about 15c/kWh. In most places diesel runs about 40c to 50c/kWh. If the site is further from the road, the fuel will cost even more.

          2. Brunel Avatar
            Brunel

            Nope. Diesel generators are used for backup power.

    2. Bristolboy Avatar
      Bristolboy

      Also don’t forget that the cost of solar systems also continue to improve…..

  2. Paul McArdle Avatar
    Paul McArdle

    Thanks Finn

    We’ll check to ensure that all of these are also listed (with technical details, not prices) in the Battery Finder widget – located here, and also embedded other places:
    https://www.energystorage.org.au/batteryfinder/

    Will also get back to you about an API data feed into your price comparator service, in order to help you maintain currency in that respect.

    Paul

  3. john Avatar
    john

    The aspect i am most interest in is the degradation.
    If it has DoD of 100% and if the battery over 10 years falls to 70% or full charge capacity, it strikes me that the actual battery must be 19.4 kWh, but only has 13.4 available at year 1 and there after for use.
    Using that figure i feel at the end of 10 years yes it would be down to 13.4.
    Answer to question by clicking on the link to Finns batter storage and reading the report.
    Yes it does degrade to 70% of its labeled 13.4 at purchase day, or has used so many cycles before hand however the efficiency of the inverters is very good.
    I can see a ready market indeed.

  4. Jeff Wehl Avatar
    Jeff Wehl

    The only thing I would point out here is that it compares Tesla’s projected cost vs what is reality for say LG and Enphase – available now. It would be very easy for LG or one of their dealers to come out and say that the cost of an LG 10 will be x in March next year, but that is purely throwing numbers at a dart board – which is basically what Tesla are doing. Tesla’s release history isnt great – theyre often late, and specs often change. I can say one thing for certain. The price that you see Tesla at on day of arrival will be beaten by LG Chem dealers – even after allowing for inversion differences.

    1. Finn Peacock Avatar
      Finn Peacock

      I totally agree. LG appear to have lots of scope to lower their battery prices:

      http://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/chevy-bolt-electric-car-reveals-cheap-batteries-really/

      1. Mike D Avatar
        Mike D

        Based on what they have said, Tesla energy also can come down by at least 30% by the end of 2017 when the batteries are built in the GigaFactory.

    2. Mike D Avatar
      Mike D

      I agree that this might happen. But every brand out there needs to come into the 25c to 40c range if they want a piece of this market. That means 25 of the 30 system/brands listed need to decide if they really want to play.
      I hope that Tesla Energy has learned a few lessons from the PW1, and has provided realistic numbers and availability dates. We will see next year if that has happened.

  5. neroden Avatar
    neroden

    This is Australian dollars, right? So the Tesla price, AUD$0.23, is about USD$0.17. (Due to rounding, possibly $0.18.)

    This is still not commerical in most of the US, where average electricity prices are about $0.12. Does work in Hawaii, Alaska, and California, which have higher prices, though.

    1. Ronald Brakels Avatar
      Ronald Brakels

      Yep, Australian dollarydoos. At today’s exchange rate it comes to 17 US cents or about 15.5 cents without our 10% Goods and Services Tax. Note that’s just for the Powerwall 2 and doesn’t include the cost of installation.

    2. Mad Max Avatar
      Mad Max

      Its even better for US. Because US prices on PowerWall 2 is lower:
      5500 USD vs 8800 AUD
      So, for US market it is about $0.14 – $0.15 per 1 kWh covered by guarantee and about $0.10 per 1 kWh of expected average lifetime (based on luck and operating conditions).

    3. Mike D Avatar
      Mike D

      Although the price seems high for the USA, I have a time-of use tariff that is 6c/kWh during the off-peak, and goes to 35c/kWh between 3PM and 8PM. While I ‘hold my own’ for the start of that time, after the sun goes down I pay the higher rate.
      So I have a reservation for a PW2, as it does make sense to store my PV output from the morning to use in the evening.

  6. Raffi256 Avatar
    Raffi256

    Once recycling takes off costs will go down further. Much cheaper to recycle an existing battery than to mine more aluminum, cobalt, nickel, etc. They are like giant boxes of high-grade ore at the end of life.

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