Some analysts kid themselves about future of solar + storage

Businessman Predicting Future With Crystal Ball

We’ve read and reported on some remarkably misinformed analysis in recent weeks, including from the country’s principal energy rule maker and the government’s favourite energy consultant. But this one just about takes the biscuit.

clsa coverIt is an analysis by investment bank CLSA – partly informed by Frontier Economics, the consultancy behind the other notable analyses we reported on last week, here and here – and argues why rooftop solar and battery storage will never take off in Australia and why no one in their right mind would ever leave the grid. Or even install solar modules.

We wouldn’t normally bother with it, but it got some serious air-time in the AFR, and in other Fairfax media, and may just be cited by others.

So it’s worth looking at and pointing out that it is based on some extraordinary assumptions – not just about the cost of solar and storage, but also about the way people would use the technology.

Let’s take its assumptions on going off-grid for instance. It cites as an example an energy hungry, four-bedroom house, the sort of consumer that would likely be the last to choose to go off grid.

No matter. It assumes that such households would want to use all of their appliances at the same time (the oven, the microwave, the dishwasher, the washing machine, the iron, the kettle, the air-con, the drier, the TV, and every light in the house as well as laptops) and would therefore need 19kW of continuous power to supply all that.

CLSA household

This, concludes analyst Baden Moore, would require 3 Tesla Powerwall 2 batteries or three Redflow ZCells, just to manage two hours of that demand – not to mention the 3-7 days of backup. Just the cost of meeting this peak, he says, would be prohibitive and cost more than $50,000 for the battery storage alone.

There are myriad problems with this calculation. The first is that many houses simply can’t download that amount of power anyway even from the coal-powered grid. In Victoria, for instance, new households have a “capacity” limit of around 10kW.

And then there is something called the “diversity factor,” which, as SolarQuip’s Glen Morris – a leading authority on solar and storage – explains, means it is almost impossible to reach such peak demand at the same time.

One appliance might go for a few seconds at maximum demand then ease off. “I’ve got 10kW (of maximum demand) just in my kitchen but I’ve never been able to turn them on all at the same time and trip the 5kW inverter,” says Morris, who lives off grid.

If a household was going to consider going off grid, would they choose to pay more than $50,000 for batteries that would not be needed most of the time, or would they pay $1,000 or less for smart controls to ensure that most of these appliances are used in off-peak?

The other issue is the sort of thinking that the CLSA report represents. It’s the same dumb attitude – based on visions of soaring peak demand – that was used to over-build and gold plate the country’s electricity network, such that Australian consumers are now paying through the teeth for their grid supply; the very cost that is making rooftop solar and battery storage so attractive to consumers.

But Moore doesn’t seem to see a problem here. He argues that the grid has been built and paid for, and that the energy networks should use any means possible to recover their costs.

“The Australian Energy Markets Commission (AEMC), the key regulator of Australian energy markets, highlights the networks will be allowed to vary the price of grid connection to ensure the cost of capital on the network is recovered,” Moore writes.

“On this basis, the cost of the network will be recovered from all consumers regardless of their usage of battery and solar energy.”

Even the networks know how crazy this attitude is. In the report they prepared with the CSIRO, and in their advice to the Finkel report, they say that millions of households will be driven, economically, to take up solar and storage.

And unless the industry gets its act together and offers them a decent and competitive service, then many will choose to leave the grid, leaving the economics of the industry in a complete mess.

Part of the problem is what Moore and Frontier Economics are comparing the price of solar and storage to. Instead of the full grid price, Moore and Frontier compare solar and storage to the retail and wholesale component of people’s bills. But then they come up with some extraordinary estimates of those prices.

clsa prices

The report suggests, for instance, that the “real” consumer price of electricity in Victoria is just 3.39 cents per kWh, which they compare to the “consumer price” of 5kW solar PV (which they put at 35.96c/kWh – about three time most people’s average) and a 5kW PV plus Tesla Powerwall 2 (36.23 cents per kWh).

Bruce Mountain, of consultancy firm CME, is horrified. “Let’s start with that 3.39 cents. Delving into the report we find that they rename this the “wholesale plus retail” price. They say that this is the price to compare to PV, with or without battery,” he told us in an emailed assessment.

“Why? Because, they say, the AEMC says consumers will be charged by the networks even if they don’t use them. How long do you think the AEMC’s chairman would last in the job if he took to the next COAG meeting a decision to slug households that install solar and maybe also a battery, a $650 a year departure tax to pay for the gold-plated network they now have little need for?

“But I’m not done with the 3.39c/kWh. We know the average household electricity price in Victoria is around 30c/kWh. Subtracting the average network charge of around 8 cents per kWh and then subtracting metering and environmental charges, leaves a charge for retail plus wholesale in Victoria of around 15c/kWh.

“The AEMC’s 2015/16 Residential price trends report says wholesale plus retail in Victoria is 12c/kWh. Lets not quibble between 15 and 12. They both make a mockery of CLSA’s 3.39. ”

Mountain, it should be remembered, has estimated that the combination of solar and storage is now one quarter cheaper than the best grid-only retail offer in South Australia. CLSA and Frontier suggest that solar and storage is double the price. He has some new thoughts about retail margins and the impact of coal closures here.

Frontier even produced this estimate for CLSA, suggesting that the overwhelming majority of Australian households would gain no financial advantage from rooftop solar panels. And none at all with storage.CLSA solar costs

The report goes further, claiming that there is a “limit” to how much renewables can be incorporated into a grid. It says 35-40 per cent, echoing a claim made by Frontier Economics and others.

The CLSA report even highlight an analysis on South Australia’s recent blackout by Russell Skelton, a former head of the two biggest coal generators in NSW. Needless to say, Skelton says the high level of wind energy was at fault for the blackout and will cause similar problems elsewhere.

This is in direct contrast to the AEMO report, which said that the nature of wind energy had nothing to do with the outage, and of the Finkel review, which pointed out there are plenty of technology alternatives to coal and gas to ensure grid security and reliability as renewables grow.

It also contradicts the CSIRO and the network owners, who see no problem incorporating more than 90 per cent wind and solar over time, and more than 80 per cent in South Australia in the same time frame that other states are aiming for 50 per cent.

CLSA’s principal point out of all this is to argue that the incumbent utilities are in the box seat when it comes to (slowly) migrating the energy system from black to green.

It is true that these utilities, and the networks, wield enormous influence at political and regulatory level on policies. But simply wishing away the cost competitiveness of new technologies is no strategy to protect the incumbents, or the consumer.

Comments

69 responses to “Some analysts kid themselves about future of solar + storage”

  1. DevMac Avatar
    DevMac

    CLSA, or any investment bank, don’t give valuable information away publically. Any report they release will be in the interests of their company and their investors. If it is of benefit to them to, say, inflate the value of fossil fuel investments whilst deflating the value of green energy investments, then that’s what they’ll do / they’ve done.

    Keep pumping air into a punctured tyre until it’s only holding up “mum and dad / superannuation” investments (the power players have all gotten their money out slowly so as not to cause a panic), then let the air run out freely by saying the opposite in the next report, something along the lines of “as a result of a 50% drop in the price of lithium-ion batteries the pendulum has swung quickly and unexpectedly away from fossil fuels and towards solar and storage”.

    In the meantime, the money the power players are slowly withdrawing from fossil fuels is being redirected to green energy companies at rock bottom prices due to lack of market confidence.

    Win on the down, win on the up. This is capitalism, where it’s easy to find pet economics consultants.

    1. ClimateWarriorMelb Avatar
      ClimateWarriorMelb

      The report is obviously SO stupid on the face of it that ulterior motives such as above for example have to hold the likely answer. Imaging being those consultants – how would you face going out in public in the next 12 months?

      1. Alastair Leith Avatar
        Alastair Leith

        I’m sure these a legal disclaimer at the bottom of it saying, in effect, please don’t act on the basis of this information, you’ll lose your money.

    2. riley222 Avatar
      riley222

      Quote from above . ‘Keep pumping air into a punctured tyre until it’s only holding up “mum
      and dad / superannuation” investments (the power players have all gotten
      their money out slowly so as not to cause a panic), then let the air
      run out freely by saying the opposite in the next report, something
      along the lines of “as a result of a 50% drop in the price of
      lithium-ion batteries the pendulum has swung quickly and unexpectedly
      away from fossil fuels and towards solar and storage”.’

      Says everything I was thinking and more,

      SPOT ON
      And our sick Pollies are on board, all the while virtuously pretending to act for the common good.
      And they wonder why people are reacting the way they are. Don’t know what the answer is, but I’m sure it won’t involve the current crop of PhD’s in hypocrisy.

  2. Phil Avatar
    Phil

    You would not bother going off grid if the daily supply charge is only 91 cents inc gst ( ausgrid NSW )

    The big benefit of the 13 kwh of energy available from JUST 1 of Tesla powerwall 2 is shifting your FREE surplus solar into the evening or morning peak household period for consumption as a substitute (mostly) for the grid.And the cost of that should be no more than $12k installed

    The Grid can make up the peak shortfall. Which being peak demand is not very much
    And that’s what your 91 cents per day pays for

    If people are forced onto Time of Use demand (TOU) where it’s 50.6 cents per kwh 2-8pm (using Origin energy Ausgrid NSW standing offer ) then you can pay back the cost of that Powerwall pretty quickly with a typical family who are all out during the day as 13 x 50.6 cents = $6.57 per day or $2398 per annum

    And as a bonus it’s “green” power and you have powerpoints that work when the grid goes out

    1. Brunel Avatar
      Brunel

      What is the cost of storing electrons in PW2?

      1. Phil Avatar
        Phil

        That would depend on your demand , time of day use , state you are in. As well as whether your off or on grid or using it for peak period consumption shift

        Although at 13.5 kwh per day in RAW terms you could extrapolate that back to the ten year warranty terms and conditions to get an effective cost per Kwh over the Warranted life of the device in Megawatt Hours versus the installed cost and financing

        Any life beyond the 10 year warranty you would have for free until the device reaches it’s actual end of life.

        1. Brunel Avatar
          Brunel

          The cost of generating is different to the cost of storing.

          If I make whiskey, it cost money to make and it costs money to store for 12 years.

    2. Greg Hudson Avatar
      Greg Hudson

      Anyone paying 50.5c has not shopped around for a better deal.

  3. trackdaze Avatar
    trackdaze

    This type of report it seems is purely written to enable a headline that catches the eye of the dumbest of readers and politicians.

  4. Colin Nicholson Avatar
    Colin Nicholson

    OK I’ll bite … how can you do the washing, drying and ironing at once

    1. JeffJL Avatar
      JeffJL

      In an energy conscious household you don’t. Who says you have to?

      1. Colin Nicholson Avatar
        Colin Nicholson

        hello … if the washing is in the washer, then you can’t put it in the dryer and you can’t iron it. It was a little joke

        1. JeffJL Avatar
          JeffJL

          OK. I took the hook, line and sinker.

          I hate you.

        2. Greg Hudson Avatar
          Greg Hudson

          You are obviously not a multi tasking woman (like my missus). She has no problem with washing, drying (clothesline) and ironing simultaneously.

    2. Cooma Doug Avatar
      Cooma Doug

      Ok so I get up at 7am. I flick on the washing machine and clothes dryer and make coffee. The wife is making toast and the instant hot water and heater go on in the two bathrooms. We have teenagers going to school.
      Then Grandma is using her hair dryer.

      So my 20 amp conductors are taking 100 amps. Had to short out those stupid switches that trip every morning. The next thing you know the fire department comes knocking at the door.

      1. Brunel Avatar
        Brunel

        Hardly anyone has instant hot water using electricity.

        1. neroden Avatar
          neroden

          I’m installing it. I know, I know…

          Thing is it uses high peak power, but with my ultra-low hot water use (possibly 3 times a day for 20 seconds each) very little total power. That’s a case study for a battery.

      2. Jason Svarc Avatar

        Haha hilarious.. just hope you aren’t actually serious because that’s kinda disturbing.

        1. Cooma Doug Avatar
          Cooma Doug

          Think deeply about the possibilities.

          In 40 years Ill be gone. But my grandkids cars will manage their energy. They will be living in high density appartment complex. The car computer will have their travel plan and energy use profile. It will also have the profiles of all the units and the travel plans of all the unit cars. All members will integrate, cooperate and share energy.
          Energy sharing will also optimise efficiency and security. Car energy computer will also drive your car and ask any questions if required to clarify issues. The car will also have precise and accurate weather forcasting.
          Cars will rarely need to act against energy shortage. But if required, cars will go to infrastructure charging stations while owners are sleeping or car is not required.
          Large scale wind and solar plant will provide energy to the major infrastructure and industry.
          It may be that many house appliances will come with batteries that will integrate with the home system.

          1. hydrophilia Avatar
            hydrophilia

            I like your vision and optimism.

      3. Tim_0 Avatar
        Tim_0

        So I either run my (dishwasher/washing machine etc) when the sun is out (for free) or in the middle of the night (at half price off peak). My total energy spend is only the supply charge – I don’t pay for any power at all for 10 months of the year, in MELBOURNE.

      4. Colin Nicholson Avatar
        Colin Nicholson

        You hate ironing too eh!

    3. Calamity_Jean Avatar
      Calamity_Jean

      Three separate loads, done in quick succession.

  5. Chris Fraser Avatar
    Chris Fraser

    Frontier’s assumptions of energy draw from various appliances make entertaining reading. Has Danny got a 3kW kettle ? I wonder where I would have to go to boil a litre of water in only 30 seconds. Not to mention the cost of rewiring the house as a kettle like that would be more than enough to blow the MCB on a 10A circuit.

    1. Tim_0 Avatar
      Tim_0

      3kW kettle is impressive; especially given that your normal household wiring is 10 amp, so the max power delivery is 2.4 kW. I don’t believe I’ve ever seen a kettle over 2kW.

    2. Brian Tehan Avatar
      Brian Tehan

      My induction cooktop can draw up to 7.4 kW on boost. Of course, if I were running off batteries, I’d switch everything on and press the boost button – not

    3. Ren Stimpy Avatar
      Ren Stimpy

      Some of us like a nice boiling cup of mercury tea.

    4. Greg Hudson Avatar
      Greg Hudson

      I have a kettle that draws 2.4kw, which is fairly close…

  6. Robin_Harrison Avatar
    Robin_Harrison

    I don’t think they’re kidding themselves, they’re trying to kid us. There’s a lot of money trying to find a way out of fossil fuels before the crash.

  7. John Saint-Smith Avatar
    John Saint-Smith

    I assume that some turkey actually paid for this report? Now that would make him dumber than the ‘stupid’ householder who’d pay for three Tesla Powerwalls to cope wiht an unachievable peak power capacity!

    1. hydrophilia Avatar
      hydrophilia

      Nope: one should assume the payer wanted a position supported and was willing to pay for the heading… even if very poorly supported in the actual report. And it works: how many folks look deeper than headlines?

      Well, intelligent life was an interesting experiment…

    2. neroden Avatar
      neroden

      I may be just ridiculous enough to get 3 Tesla Powerwalls for higher peak power because I might actually be running the pool heater, electric house heating, hot water heater, the oven, the dryer at the same time.

      But I wouldn’t be doing so for more than a couple of minutes! I’d have enough energy *storage* to last through a day-long power outage, along with the *peak capacity* to handle running everything at once for a minute or two.

      1. John Saint-Smith Avatar
        John Saint-Smith

        I’m not sure whether your household circuits would handle all this! Surely you would still be better off with a $1000 smart load distribution system that would avoid having such things as the pool heater running in peak time (which I assume you mean when you claim to have the oven running at the same time?

        But hey! What you do with your money is your affair. If I had a pool, I’d use a translucent pool cover – saving evaporation and storing solar energy over an extended period, it provides its own energy storage system. Its just like having a large, insulated hot water storage tank so that I can heat the water with solar power during the day, and still have steaming hot water in the morning. If I lived in a seriously cold climate, I’d invest in a solar heat storage system – maybe underground rock beds that could be warmed by hot air roof panels by day and return that heat via a reverse fan at night. I understand that the Rocky Mountains Institute in Denver Colorado has a passively heated headquarters that doesn’t need active heating in -20 degree C winters! At least 3 of your ‘3rd Power Wall’ issues solved within the device!

        It’s called ‘synergistic thinking’ – nature does it all the time!

        1. neroden Avatar
          neroden

          *cough* I’m quite sure my grid feed couldn’t handle all of this. The individual circuits can, which is why I was thinking “Hmm, if I put in batteries, I could exceed the power maximum imposed by the grid….”

          See, I’m expecting to end up with very peaky power, by having everything running during, say, a party, and nothing at all running most of the time. So not particularly high total usage. Batteries are a way to peak-shave.

          P.S. Small pool indoors with a pool cover. Heater actually shouldn’t be doing too much work most of the time.

  8. Brunel Avatar
    Brunel

    If new houses have a 10 kW connection to the grid, how thick is the connection from old houses to the grid?

    1. Chris Fraser Avatar
      Chris Fraser

      My older house network fuse is 80A = 19.2 kW. It’s designed to protect the network not the house.

    2. nakedChimp Avatar
      nakedChimp

      For rural QLD it should be 32A per phase.. maybe even 64A.
      Where I’m we got 2x 180 degree phase shifted available, so can’t run 3-phase stuff directly (needs 3-phase generator for that then connected to 1 phase).

      Personally I want my PV/battery/grid-back-up system to be able to deliver 10kW on a single phase continuous.
      Would mean for a load of 5-7kW one got 100-50% safety margin for the electronics to not get killed during real use cases – overnight charging a BEV included 😉
      And those margins can evaporate quickly, increase temp by 10-20 degrees and the ratings go down for this stuff (unless you go military spec, but that’s overkill and too expensive).

    3. DJR96 Avatar
      DJR96

      Yes, most houses have an 80A service fuse and cabling to suit.

      What is kind of disturbing is that transformers servicing a street or area of a new development only has the capacity to supply barely half of that amount to the connected houses on average.
      So they just hope that enough other houses don’t draw much at the same time to allow for that high draw customer.

      So this is an acknowledgement by the DNSP’s that very few household consumers would ever draw that much load at any one time.

      1. Brunel Avatar
        Brunel

        Shocking policy in new houses.

        1. DJR96 Avatar
          DJR96

          I’m pretty sure it’s not just new houses. I think it’s widespread policy for all residential at least.

    4. Peter G Avatar
      Peter G

      In WA the standard connection for rural is 32A and Metro is 63A per phase, with a voltage of 240v +/- 6%. (from WA Distribution Connections Manual pp40).

      On a single phase connection available instantaneous power could not be assumed to be more than 240*94%*32 = 7.22 kW (even less with a poor power factor and there is significant voltage sag at times of high demand)

      WA is a thin grid, as is much of Queensland, many properties only have single phase available and in my experience the overwhelming majority of regional domestic installations are single phase in any case (at a guess 60,000 – 100,000 connections in WA).

  9. Ken Dyer Avatar
    Ken Dyer

    This is clearly a post truth report, or in other words, a bunch of unsubstantiated lies. One can only imagine what it must be like cooking dinner breakfast and lunch whilst having your hair blow dried and vacuuming the floor, washing the clothes, ironing the clothes, watching TV and working on the PC. One must also take into account drying clothes in the dryer (because it’s raining outside?), and running the air conditioner to ensure everybody stays cool during all this frenetic activity.

    1. neroden Avatar
      neroden

      Yes, and this report supposes not only that you have everything running at once but that you are doing it for THREE DAYS SOLID.

      Seriously.

      1. Calamity_Jean Avatar
        Calamity_Jean

        “…this report supposes not only that you have everything running at once but that you are doing it for THREE DAYS SOLID.”

        To paraphrase the Wizard of Oz movie, “That isn’t even merely stupid, that’s really most sincerely stupid.”

    2. Brian Tehan Avatar
      Brian Tehan

      Yes, it’s ridiculous – like planning roads, based on every car in the city leaving home simultaneously or planning communication networks based on every user’s simultaneous peak utilisation. Obviously, the author has never studied engineering or maths like queuing theory and statistics.

      1. Alastair Leith Avatar
        Alastair Leith

        Comms is the only place that makes sense. Because data usage is growing exponentially.

  10. majestic recycler Avatar
    majestic recycler

    Serious (?) people even discussing the option of going off-grid shows the potential drop of demand from the grid. That’s where analysts should focus in next years. Going off-grid is many battery research leaps away…

    1. Tim_0 Avatar
      Tim_0

      Not that far away. I only have 5kW of solar and given my feed-in numbers I could be off grid if I had the battery. That’s a 20sq house in Melb with 2 people and an Electric oven. Off-grid isn’t very far away at all.

    2. Mike D Avatar
      Mike D

      I’m in the USA so my numbers are a bit different but here goes. I have electric heating and cooling (heat pump), and electric water heating, and washing and an electric clothes dryer. I have 8kw on my roof, and average 40kWh of generation in the sunny and hot summer here in Nevada. Adding in one PW2 Completely covers my summer usage 99% of the time. In winter my production goes down to 25kWh on average, which covers my usage 90% of the time. Running a generator to cover the shortfall would cost me about US$300/yr.

      Currently my utility charges me US$210/year for the privilege of being connected, and that is scheduled to go up by 50% in two years. I also pay another $100/yr for my electric shortfall, misc fees, and taxes on that bill.

      So I see that it will be rational to turn off the grid really soon, and definitely in two years if the tariffs continue to go up as projected.

  11. Keryn Avatar
    Keryn

    Some politicians may prefer to keep using those consultants who produce un-informed reports. That way they can honestly say ‘I wasn’t aware’. It can be a kind of insurance from reality and from taking responsibility for their actions.

    1. Ken Fabian Avatar
      Ken Fabian

      In a similar – and related – way the very few “maverick” credentialed climate scientists that dispute the validity of the work of the majority of their peers provide a way for people in positions of trust and responsibility to justify not taking the consistent expert advice on climate and emissions seriously. I sometimes think that service, even more than misleading and confusing the public, is their principle value to those with decision making power who are seeking to avoid acceptance of climate responsibility.

  12. Greynomad Travelling Avatar
    Greynomad Travelling

    MISINFORMATION IS RIFE…

    FREQUENTLY IT COMES FROM GOVERNMENTS WANTING TO MAINTAIN CONTROL….

  13. Jason Svarc Avatar

    That load table is completely laughable. Most hybrid systems are setup to power essential load circuits – power and lighting. Excess solar can supply air-con, hot water, etc during the day with timers or demand management (smart controls). http://www.cleanenergyreviews.info/blog/guide-how-to-select-solar-hybrid-battery-back-up-system

    1. Phil Avatar
      Phil

      You can also shift surplus solar panel power to run storage hot water booster elements in Cold Climates , even Alpine.They are cheap and work well

      http://solarimmersion.co.uk/

      Solar panels are cheap and work well even in the cold . As long as you get sunny or high brightness level winters

    2. neroden Avatar
      neroden

      The really insane thing is that that load table calculated a peak load (power requirement) and then described it as if it was a continuous load over many hours (storage requirement). Which it isn’t.

      I’m setting up a house which may have a very peaky load, with stuff like instant hot water. But I’m not washing my hands all night, so the duration of the peak is very short.

  14. Greynomad Travelling Avatar
    Greynomad Travelling

    I am planning to build a small cottage for myself and it will be based on my experience with the motorhome I live in….
    I have 750 watts of solar, 400 amps of battery power.

    I run
    1.. a fridge (12 volt)
    2. Satellite TV
    3.. Water pump
    4.. Lighting
    5.. Diesel heater
    6.. Gas hot water
    7.. Radio

    Admittedly
    I dont have
    1.. A washing machine
    2. A microwave
    3.. A dishwasher
    4.. Toaster

    But my system is basic and covers my needs. Now to add those other items I merely upscale the power system and use that equipment when I have full sun and probably wash once a week.

    I can buy battery powered vacuum cleaner which would charge easily from solar..

    Its possible and simple to do what you need but it requires some planning and adjustment to thinking..

    If we were forced to do it than its all possible and life can still be luxurious compared to many countries…

    1. disqus_gF5uXVTUbL Avatar
      disqus_gF5uXVTUbL

      I did the same. Recommend Collyn Rivers, Solar Success: Complete Guide to Home and Property Systems. He has a website so can google it.

  15. Macabre Avatar
    Macabre

    Not the biggest point, but I do have to say that the phrase is “paying through the nose” or “lying through one’s teeth” – both of which seem appropriate here. Paying through the teeth has connotations of the tooth fairy!

    Otherwise, a very interesting read. Thanks for continuing the campaign for truth in a post-truth world.

  16. David McInnes Avatar
    David McInnes

    Perhaps these energy expert modellers should take a look at Tony Seba’s latest projections re disruptions in the energy sphere. In this speech to an Indian conference last month he highlights amongst many other things why established thought leaders in many different industries just don’t ‘get’ disruption.

    https://youtu.be/ZfXKxThT4HY

    David McInnes

    1. fearless Avatar
      fearless

      > thought leaders in many different industries just don’t ‘get’ disruption.

      Upton Sinclair said it best: “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!”

  17. disqus_gF5uXVTUbL Avatar
    disqus_gF5uXVTUbL

    Article demonstrates fear of solar/storage being effective and to me effective means:
    # can source a substantial amount of electricity locally,
    # can store some power for when the sun goes down,
    # cost effective compared to centralised grid electricity,
    # reduces need for large grid infrastructure and cabling,
    # social justice by a more distributive wealth,
    # environmental benefit.
    Real industry analysis looks promising and now with early adopter FIT’s ending, we’re in the next phase of solar proving itself on cost, and social and environmental benefits.

  18. Tint Depot Avatar

    PR is what they are counting on the help them.

  19. Tim_0 Avatar
    Tim_0

    With 5kW installed for $3800, the economics of solar are pretty bloody clear. A household of 2, electric oven included, we only pay the supply charge. That’s even with retail power charged at 5 times the feed-in tariff.
    I expect the battery systems will come down in price, and in 5-10 years everyone I know will be off the grid.

  20. disqus_gF5uXVTUbL Avatar
    disqus_gF5uXVTUbL

    “In Victoria, for instance, new households have a “capacity” limit of around 10kW.”

    In the future, anyone who wants to run a high power household will need to install their own onsite generation to augment the limited 10kW from the grid… Will probably also be necessary to avoid the introduction of demand charges.

  21. James Ray Avatar

    In addition to solar and storage, local electricity trading will also help to make energy supply more economical. Read, sign and share this petition to change the national electricity objective (NEO) to consider environmental impact and reconsider the change request to allow Local Generation Network Credits or otherwise facilitate local electricity trading.

    1. Alastair Leith Avatar
      Alastair Leith

      Link?

      1. James Ray Avatar

        Forget the petition, not enough people were signing it.

        I’m working on blockchain technology with Ethereum, hopefully that will help a lot.

        Power Ledger and Grid+ are doing good stuff in the renewable energy industry with blockchain technology. I prefer Grid+.

        My Avaaz petitions are available at the below links:
        The AEMC: Reconsider the change request for local electricity trading.
        Get Housing NSW to approve solar installations for interested tenants
        Implement mandatory sustainability performance in all buildings
        Local councils worldwide: Divert materials from landfill
        Supermarkets and governments: Stop usable materials being put in dumpsters

  22. fearless Avatar
    fearless

    “The report goes further, claiming that there is a ‘limit’ to how much renewables can be incorporated into a grid. It says 35-40 per cent…” If this is really a problem, then there’s an obvious solution: The utilities should pay all those pesky solar customers an incentive to abandon the grid. Voila — stability restored.

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