An extensive trial of electric vehicles in the state of Victoria has found that the fuel costs of EVs are less than half that of petrol cars, and widespread adoption could deliver around $20 billion of savings to the state by 2040 – mostly to the pockets of consumers.
An interim report from the $5 million Victorian Government Electric Vehicle Trial admits that these operating costs are deceptive, because the upfront cost of EVs is still much costlier than petrol vehicles. But these purchasing costs are expected to fall sharply in coming years, while the fuel costs of petrol vehicles can be expected to rise.
The report gives a detailed insight into how EVs could be adopted in Victoria – the cost of household and public charging stations, the question of whether corporates provide free charging for employees, and how practical it is to offer them at a cost or even for free in shopping centres. It also cites the considerable barriers to adoption.
The one downbeat element of the report, however, was the conclusion that having an EV in Victoria would not actually be cleaner than a petrol car, because of the high emissions of the state’s brown coal power plants. But an EV running on renewables – either by purchasing green electricity from a retailer or by having rooftop solar, for instance, would deliver environmental benefits within a few years.
So far the story of EVs in Australia has been one of slow take-up. This should be expected, because like any technology such as mobile phones or rooftop solar, or even battery storage, the “early adopters” are those with a particular interest in technology and/or the environment, or in making a statement.
“Right now, electric vehicles are expensive,” the report says. But it notes that prices have fallen 30 per cent in two years, and would likely fall further in coming years. By 2020, the report suggests, the cost advantage of an electric vehicle would outweigh the purchase price penalty for most Victorian drivers. The estimated $20 billion economic benefit to consumers by 2040 includes the cost of the EV.
The good news is that the average cost to run their electric vehicle on renewable energy was between $7 and $10 per week. This is about half of what it would cost to run an equivalent petrol vehicle, with none of the emissions. The estimate was based on the cost of electricity, including a premium for green power of 25c/kWh.
One of the barriers to EV adoption is the cost of establishing the charging network. The costs of intalling household charging infrastructure ranged from less than $100 for a standard wall socket to around $500 for an entry-level dedicated EV charging outlet, and up to $2,500 for a fully-featured dedicated EV charging outlet.
Depending on the state and needs of the household – including distance from the point of supply, condition and capacity of the electrical supply board, the charging infrastructure could range in price from $392 to more than $6,000. But the average was around $1,750. Having the whole “home charging solution”, which might include smart technology to dictate when the car could be charged, would likely cost between $2,000 and $3,000. Electricity supply upgrades, charging circuit complications, and shared parking arrangements could double this cost.
The report found that most charging would be done at night-time, although households with PV – who are mostly on time of use meters in Victoria – were more likely to charge the car in off-peak periods overnight. Most participants would agree to have their charging managed by “smart charging” systems that would identify the cheapest options for charging, avoid peak network drama, and so avoid costly network investment. But as this graph below shows, if charging is done at work, that creates a much different profile.
On the question of work-place charging, the trial found that at around $5,000, charging outlet costs are generally higher than for home charging due to the preference for increased functionality and durability.
The question of who pays for that charging is interesting. Drivers felt it should either be free, or paid for at commercial electricity rates – which would be less than household rates. There was a suggestion that charging services could come as part of a salary package. They can also be incorporated as part of their green building certification. One study found that a driver who did a 40km commute each way would save nearly $1,500 a year on fuel costs even if he/she paid commercial rate at the workplace for charging.
On the question of emissions, the paper found that the impacts arising from vehicle operation far outweigh those in relation to vehicle production, even allowing for an EV battery replacement over the vehicle life. Vehicle disposal impacts, including those of the EV battery, were found to be negligible due to the high expected rate of material recycling.
The dominant influence of vehicle operation on EV life-cycle impacts is the way in which electricity is made, and in Victoria, that is a key issue,l as this graph below illustrates. But an electric vehicle operating on renewable energy may provide a net benefit in terms of life-cycle carbon emissions within three years of operation, and a saving of over 50 per cent across the 20-year average Victorian vehicle lifetime.