The COP27 climate negotiations in Egypt finally ended on Sunday almost 40 hours over time and with mixed outcomes.
Given the tough year, thanks to a fossil fuelled energy crisis and increasing geopolitical tensions, many veterans expected a tough COP.
The Egyptian COP27 Presidency was heavily focused on the optics (including attracting as many participants and leaders as possible) and less so the diplomacy required to land an ambitious agreement.
In the end, this COP managed to keep most of the Glasgow pact intact, but that energy could have been directed towards advancing action.
The one major area of progress was the creation of a loss and damage fund to compensate the ‘particularly vulnerable developing countries’ from climate impacts. But at the end of the day, this addresses the symptom without putting further attention to the cause.
The good outcomes
Taking a good, bad and ugly approach to the final agreement, it’s clear that the good certainly was the loss and damage outcome. This was a long time in the making, having personally led negotiations on this issue a decade ago for the Australian government.
What has changed over this time is the scale of losses which has far surpassed the scale of collective climate action. The compromise came through in the final couple of days along with a push to expand the countries who should tip money into this fund.
While this expanded base of sources wasn’t agreed, it will be on the agenda next year. Keeping the donor base to just ‘developed countries’ (defined as OECD members from 1990) provides a free pass to more recently wealthy nations, like the petrostates who continue to profit from producing the problem.
Also good was the multi-lateral development banks getting an earful to do better.
The bad outcomes
The bad is the failure to address the cause, fossil fuels.
Even in the final early hours of Sunday morning there was a big push to include ‘phase out fossil fuels’ including from the likely (EU, Costa Rica, New Zealand) and the unlikely (India, US and Australia), but what was left was a regurgitation of the Glasgow language.
And it was the Glasgow COP President, Alok Sharma who said it best in the UK’s closing statement to the COP27 Plenary:
Emissions peaking before 2025 as the science tells us is necessary. Not in this text.
Clear follow through on the phase down of coal. Not in this text.
Clear commitments to phase put all fossil fuels. Not in this text.
And the energy text weakened in the final minutes.
Friends, I said in Glasgow that the pulse of 1.5 degrees was weak. Unfortunately, it remains on life support.
The ugly outcomes
The ugly was the backtracking. The fact that winding back the 1.5°C goal was even in contention shows how some countries treat these conferences. They push artificial asks by unpicking what they had agreed to in the past to use as bargaining chips and ensure progress is not made elsewhere.
New Zealand Climate Minister James Shaw called out ‘petro-states’ who sought to ‘unwind’ things. Saudi Arabia, responsible for the absence of voting rules in the UNFCCC and default to consensus, knows how to play this game. And it told COP27 point blank we should “not mention fossil fuels”.
The Russians are similar. And we had no progress on naming fossil fuels. The ugliest part is they not only succeeded, but they got a last-minute addition to include language on the need for ‘low-emissions and renewable energy’ when it should have just been ‘renewable energy’.
This is the weakened ‘energy text’ Alok Sharma mentioned. WTF is low-emissions energy? When you have two weeks you can define and contain it. When you have a few minutes left and its 40 hours overtime, you end up here. Ugly stuff.
Dubai to give leave pass to fossil fuels
Next year will be COP28 in Dubai. It will certainly be well organised, in the site of Dubai Expo 2020 (with local staff moved from one project to the other). The Emiratis are also hiring up ex-negotiators from all over and, along with Boston Consulting Group and other consultants, will put on a lavish conference.
From what I hear, the Emiratis don’t want fossil fuels to be the villian. Expect a tech expo with a side of addressing the symptoms of climate change.
Just don’t mention the cause! After Dubai, it will be COP29 in Eastern Europe (likely Czech Republic, or less likely Bulgaria), COP30 in Latin America (likely Brazil) where new 2035 targets should be agreed and then finally COP31 in Australia (or less likely Turkey).
Australia must do better
The Australian team was certainly in better form this year than in Glasgow. But an improvement on the Morrison Government, doesn’t translate into climate leaderhip.
The latest Climate Change Performance Index shows only an advancement of a few rungs up the 60-country ladder. Leadership comes from adderssing fossil fuels in both rhetoric and action. Minister Bowen wants to host COP31 in parntership wth the Pacific.
Hopefully the Pacific, clear victims to climate impacts, will finally call out the villian in fossil fuels. Better yet call it out now, and make a halt to fossil fuel expansion a condition for hosting the COP with Australia. Another idea would be to ensure a fossil fuel phase out is the main agenda. Now that would be a COP worth attending!
Richie Merzian is the director of the climate and energy program at The Australia Institute.
