Australia’s long awaited first climate risk assessment has painted a bleak picture of the country’s future, saying it is now “prudent” to plan for an increase in average temperatures of 3ºC by the end of the century, even as environmental groups urge the government to set highly ambitious emissions reduction targets.
The country’s first National Adaptation Plan, released alongside the National Climate Risk Assessment, makes for grim reading, telling Australians to expect extreme weather in formerly safe places and that simultaneous disasters around the country will become more common.
It has been released just days before the federal government is due to release its 2035 emissions reduction target, but the focus of the two reports released on Monday, however, are not on what further action can be taken to fix climate change but how to adapt to that bleak future.
“Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment and our National Adaptation Plan are a roadmap to address the unavoidable impacts of climate change, to build a more resilient country for all communities, regions and industries,” said climate change and energy minister Chris Bowen in a statement.
“Australians are already living with the consequences of climate change today but it’s clear every degree of warming we prevent now will help future generations avoid the worst impacts in years to come.”
Bowen says current climate change efforts are working to bring down emissions, with federal data released in August showing these fell by 1.4 per cent, or 6.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, in the year to March 2025.
But the federal government is also being accused of using its incredible election mandate to indulge in actions that meany believe are locking future generations into 2-3ºC warming or more.
Last week the federal environment minister Murray Watt green-lit a 40-year extension for Woodside Energy’s controversial North West Shelf development in Western Australia, a project that is expected to create at least 13 times Australia’s annual emissions over that period.
The federal government is tipped to release its 2035 emission targets this week, with fears that they will be set at the bottom end of the 65- 75 per cent reduction the Climate Change Authority has canvassed.
The report has now been delivered to the federal government and there is speculation it includes a range of 65-68 per cent. Progressive business, led by the likes of Fortescue, have called for a cut of 75 per cent below 2005 levels by 2035. Business lobbies have urged a number in the low 60s.
Environmental groups say the number should be at least 80 per cent, and some say it should be net zero by 2035 if the Paris target of keep average global warming as close to 1.5°C, is to be respected.
“What the government does now will shape the lives of communities throughout Australia,” said Greenpeace Australia Pacific’s Simon Bradshaw in a statement.
“It is their duty to protect us, and it will be a shameful legacy if they don’t.
“The Albanese Government has been given an overwhelming mandate from the Australian people to take stronger action to tackle the climate crisis. It must respond to this report by setting a strong, science aligned climate target of net zero emissions by 2035, and committing to a timeline for the fast, fair phase-out of fossil fuels including gas.
“The Climate Risk Assessment has shown us not only what we have to lose, but, more importantly, just how much we can and must fight to save. Everything we love is at stake.”
A grim future if more Woodsides go ahead
The national assessment shows what the future of 1.5ºC, 2ºC and 3ºC looks like if too little is done to reduce warming or adapt to the new world around us.
But the authors note that while global warming is already at 1.2ºC above pre-industrial levels – as confirmed by leading CSIRO climate expert Pep Canadell in the latest episode of Renew Economy’s Energy Insiders podcast – Australia, a country which is uniquely sensitive to temperature rise, is already at 1.5ºC.
Under 3ºC of warming, Sydney and Darwin are likely to see heat-related deaths surge by almost 450 per cent and 425 per cent respectively, and Australia can expect more people to suffer from tick- and mosquito-borne diseases and respiratory problems.
The most vulnerable parts of society will be the disadvantaged and First Nations people, because the changing climate threatens the health of Country and access to Country, the very young, very old, people with health conditions, and people who work outdoors such as emergency responders.
Specific “watchpoints” are already-hot Northern Australia, remote communities at risk of being cut off, and the outer suburbs of major cities – the latter because they’re vulnerable to urban flooding and heatwave-based problems yet recovery is likely to be “prolonged”.
Coastal Australia should expect half a metre of sea level rise by the end of the century, while the number of extreme heatwaves are projected to double if local temperatures hit 2ºC and quadruple at 3ºC.
“Model-based projections tell us that global temperatures are likely to continue to increase until at least mid-century and suggest it is prudent to plan for global warming levels of 2°C to 3°C by the end of this century, with temperatures in Australia likely to track higher than the global average,” the National Adaptation Plan says.
“Our climate has already changed, and will continue to change, even if global temperatures stabilise.
“Stabilising global temperatures at +1.5°C, +2°C, or +3°C above pre-industrial levels will reduce some, but not all, climate impacts. Changes in the oceans, for example, are locked in for centuries, as oceans will keep warming, rising, acidifying, and losing oxygen.”
National summary of potential changes to climate hazards. Circles indicate a confidence rating based on the direction of change. 3 circles = high confidence, 2 circles = medium confidence, 1 circles = low confidence (ACS, 2025). Image: National Climate Risk Assessment.
The risk assessment identifies 10 climate hazards and seven systems that are most at risk including national security and health.
The 11 priority risks include water security as floods and coastal flooding events contaminate clean sources of water, more pressure on emergency responders as back-to-back and concurrent disasters become more common, and infrastructure becoming less reliable.
Cairns and Far North Environment Centre director Bronwyn Opie says back-to-back disasters are already happening, citing Cyclone Jasper cutting power to 40,000 people in Far North Queensland.
“The entire community of Wujal Wujal had to be evacuated. This was followed by a heatwave, compounding the disaster and leaving communities to recover without power or cooling,” she said in a statement.
All of these hit at the heart of communities’ ability to bounce back and be ready for the next disaster. The assessment says extreme events will lead to property damage and the loss of homes entirely, increased insurance costs, and ultimately ongoing cost of living pressures.
Image: National Climate Risk Assessment
What the two reports make very clear is that Australians are already living with the consequences of climate change.
The natural environment followed by national security are the two areas most affected today.
Among the problems created by climate change for national security are rising expectations that defence forces will pitch in to help with disaster response, as the same climate impacts heat up geopolitical tensions, and a loss of trust in government.
Mitigating those risks will require “major” changes in planning, resourcing, and coordination, says retired colonel Neil Greet.
“This risk assessment cannot be a one-off. Legislation is required to make these risk assessments a normal part of government, with regular and transparent reporting to the parliament and the Australian people,” he said in a statement.
Image: National Climate Risk Assessment
Adaptation underway
Adaptation to the already-worrying baseline of a hotter, drier, more climatically unstable future is already underway, and the assessment and adaptation plan are expected to guide future efforts.
The federal government has spent $3.6 billion since 2022 on climate adaptation and resilience programs such as the Disaster Ready Fund, and is putting $9 billion into more tangential schemes such as the Regional Investment Corporation to provide loans for improving climate resilience, boosting sector productivity, and supporting agriculture.
At a policy level, Australia now has a National Health and Climate Strategy and a National Disaster Risk Reduction Framework, and the new adaptation plan will be at the core of a national action agenda shared between federal, state, territory and local governments.
The national assessment calls for climate-informed urban planning, building codes that factor in climate change, and recognising and integrating the existing knowledge around adaptation within First Nations and Torres Strait Islander groups to care for Australia’s sensitive environment.
Organisations covering the gamut of interest groups, from security services to environmental, are now urging the federal government to do something with the reports.
“For the first time, we have a comprehensive national assessment of the climate risks we face. We cannot ignore this warning. Australians expect our political leaders to take meaningful action,” said retired major general Peter Dunn and former ACT Emergency Services Authority commissioner in a statement.
“That means setting the strongest possible 2035 target to cut climate pollution, but also doing all we can to prepare communities for the climate-fuelled disasters they will inevitably see in future.”
The newly formed Northern Australia Conservation Alliance says the ecological and cultural treasure of the north faces an existential threat from climate change within less than two generations.
Its members warned of places like the Kimberley’s Fitzroy Crossing becoming like a place from Mad Max if days above 40ºC shift from 67 days a year now to seven and a half months by 2090.
They say ongoing disasters are already happening, as Far North Queensland’s Wujal Wujal had to evacuated after Cyclone Jasper, which wiped out electricity and was immediately followed by a heatwave.
Sweltering Cities wants to see national investment in building standards and large-scale retrofits to make homes safe to live in during heatwaves, especially for renters and people on low incomes, support for local governments, community organisations and grassroots groups to deliver tailored resilience projects, and national standards to ensure no worker has to choose between their income and their safety in extreme heat.
See also: “A place we’d rather not be:” Why Labor needs to listen to and respect the climate science
And: Energy Insiders Podcast: Time to go “full sail” on decarbonisation
