New solar installations around the globe are expected to reach nearly 400 gigawatts (GW) in 2023, driven by soaring electricity prices and record low prices for solar modules.
Energy analysts BloombergNEF’s latest analysis includes yet another increase in its prediction for annual installation capacity, driven by the fall in prices and huge activity in the world’s biggest market in China, and the rapid build in other established markets.
BNEF is now predicting that new solar PV in 2023 will hit 392GW by year’s end, which would be a 56% increase in total new capacity compared to 2022.
Maybe more importantly, however, is the reduction in costs. According to BNEF’s analysis, the typical monocrystalline silicon monofacial module price by the end of the year is expected to fall to just 14.5 US cents per Watt.
The price of standard solar modules has already hit an all-time low of 16.5 US cents per Watt in August, with further reductions expected by year’s end.
China remains the dominant solar market, and BNEF predicts that local plans and targets represent “a lower bound rather than an upper one” on what is actually expected to happen.
Bloomberg also expects South Africa to add 5GW of new capacity this year, “as residential and commercial consumers respond to chronic power outages.”
Finally in BNEF’s third quarter analysis is the increasing frequency with which solar – both small- and large-scale – is being paired with storage. And while mandated in several Chinese provinces and written into auctions in many other countries, demand for increased energy storage capacity is its own driving force.
