The overwhelming majority of gas that would be produced from fracking the Beetaloo Basin would be sent overseas for export according to a new analysis that claims the industry has been “gaslighting” Australians over the projects.
The analysis from environmental finance group Market Forces examines claims by gas pipeline outfit APA Group, that has advocated to open up the Beetaloo Basin in the Northern Territory to fracking on the basis the resource is needed to meet domestic energy demand.
Rather it finds that it would take 237 years to use the fracked NT gas in Australia’s domestic market, making a mockery of claims that new projects like Beetaloo are critical to support the transition to net-zero by 2050.
APA Group plans to build gas pipelines for two companies with developments in the area, Beetaloo Energy Australia (formerly Empire Energy) and Tamboran Resources.
Comparing the companies own gas production forecasts to demand forecasts in the National Electricity Market (NEM), the group found the projects would produce more than nine times the east coast’s gas demand over the next 25 years.
Market Forces CEO Will van de Pol said the analysis showed the majority of the gas was destined to be exported, despite statements from companies such as Tamboran Resources that half the gas it produced would be used for domestic consumption.
“What it is, in reality, is an export project that is trying to buy social licence by talking about a very small amount of domestic demand and trying to claim that gas from the Beetaloo is needed to meet our domestic energy needs, which is just not true,” he said.
When we talk about Australian domestic gas use, we’re talking about less than 20 percent of gas that is produced in the country. The biggest user of gas in Australia is the LNG industry itself that uses its own gas for processing, for export.”
Beetaloo Energy has previously said it plans to export 83% of the gas it produces. Tamboran Resources has suggested a 50-50 split between export and domestic use.
With the start of the federal government’s home battery scheme on Monday and the expectation that the technology will continue to get cheaper in price, it is anticipated the gas industry will face greater demand destruction over time.
There are also questions about the stability of global gas markets. Japan, a foundational buyer that absorbs two fifths – roughly 40% — of global gas supply, has been over-stating its demand for Australian gas and redirect shipments while they are on the water.
Combined with a massive wave of electrification in China, volatility created by the Trump administration’s tariff regime, and the potential for a global gas glut to form as Qatar brings new projects online, it remains unclear whether the global market will be able to absorb additional gas from projects currently being developed.
The Market Forces analysis also noted the Australian Energy Market Operator has been revising down its projections for the amount of gas required by the NEM and the Northern Territory out to 2043. The latest projections have gas demand 7% lower when compared with the previous forecast.
“They’re looking at a shrinking pie,” van de Pol said. “They’re willing to bet billions of their shareholders money against the world meeting its climate goals. That’s a risk for our economy more broadly, it’s a risk for communities that are facing and are being proposed by the gas industry.”
“The gas industry, and the APA Group in this instance, are trying to gaslight the Australian public.”
During the election campaign, Renew Economy revealed Tamboran Resources CEO Joel Riddle was among three figures involved in an effort to start an astroturfed campaign group, Australians for Natural Gas.
Tamboran donated $28,000 to NT Labor ahead of the Territory election in 2024 and recruited former Chief Minister Nicole Manison as vice-president of government relations and public affairs after she retired from politics that year.
The company also has strong ties to the Trump administration. Before his appointment, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright served as CEO of Liberty Energy, a company with a $15.2m equity stake in Tamboran.
“The positioning of gas as this necessary element of everyday life – it’s very clear the gas industry is trying to promote that narrative but it’s not supported by the facts,” van de Pol said.
