Two new reports have undermined the Dutton Coalition’s claims about nuclear power.
A report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) undermines claims that nuclear power would reduce power bills, and the latest edition of the World Nuclear Industry Status Report undermines claims that nuclear power is on a growth trajectory and Australia risks being left behind.
The IEEFA report’s key findings are as follows:
– Under the Coalition’s nuclear plans, electricity bills could rise by $665 per year on average across jurisdictions and scenarios, for households using a median amount of electricity.
– The bill impact would be more acute for larger households, given their higher electricity consumption. For example, for 4-person households the average annual bill increase across regions and nuclear scenarios would be $972 and for 5+ person households it would be $1,182.
– The cost of electricity generated from nuclear plants would likely be 1.5 to 3.8 times the current cost of electricity generation in eastern Australia.
– Overnight capital costs (excluding financing costs) of recent nuclear power station builds analysed by IEEFA have blown out by a factor of between 1.7 and 3.4, creating significant financial difficulties for the companies involved.
World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2024
The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2024 (WNISR-2024) was released yesterday. Since 1992, these reports have provided a wealth of factual information about the status and trajectory of nuclear power worldwide.
WNISR-2024 notes that as of 1 July 2024, a total of 408 nuclear power reactors were operating in 32 countries, 30 below the 2002 peak of 438 reactors.
At the end of 2023, nuclear capacity stood at 365 gigawatts (GW). As of mid-2024, operating capacity reached 367.3 GW, 0.2 GW more than the previous 2006 end-of-year record of 367.1 GW.
That’s something for the nuclear boosters to cheer about: record nuclear capacity. But some context is needed. Nuclear power has been stagnant for the past 30 years and a fleet of mostly young reactors is now a fleet of old reactors.
In 1990, the mean age of the global power reactor fleet was just 11.3 years. WNISR-2024 notes that the average age of the world’s operating reactor fleet has been increasing since 1984 and stands at 32 years as of mid-2024, up from 31.4 years in mid-2023.
As the rate of closure of ageing reactors increases, it will become increasingly difficult for the industry to maintain its 30-year pattern of stagnation by matching closures with start-ups, let alone achieving any growth.
Former World Nuclear Association executive Steve Kidd spoke to this problem in 2016, noting that “the industry is essentially running to stand still.”
In 2023, WNISR-2024 notes, there were five reactor start-ups (5 GW) and five permanent closures (6 GW) with a net decline of 1 GW in capacity. (This year has also been underwhelming: a net gain of 2 GW of nuclear capacity compared to several hundred GW of new renewable capacity.)
Nuclear’s share of global electricity generation declined from 9.2 percent to 9.1 percent in 2023, little more than half of its peak of 17.5 percent in 1996.
In the 20 years from 2004 to 2023, there were 102 startups and 104 reactor closures worldwide. Of these, 49 startups were in China with no closures. Outside China, there has been a net decline of 51 reactors over the same period, and net capacity declined by 26.4 GW.
As of mid-2024, 59 reactors were under construction worldwide, 10 fewer than in 2013. China had the most reactors under construction (27) but none abroad. Russia dominates the international market with 26 units under construction as of mid-2024, six of them in Russia and 20 in seven other countries.
WNISR-2024 states: “It remains uncertain to what extent these projects have been or will be impacted by sanctions imposed on Russia and other consequential geopolitical developments following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
Construction started on six reactors in 2023 — down from 10 in 2022 — including five in China.
Chinese and Russian government-controlled companies launched all 35 reactor constructions in the world from December 2019 to mid-2024. Besides Russia’s Rosatom, only France’s EDF is currently building nuclear power plants abroad (two reactors in the UK) as lead-contractor.
Potential nuclear ‘newcomer’ countries
Peter Dutton claims that “50 countries are exploring or investing in next-generation nuclear technology for the first time.” That’s nonsense. WNISR-2024 notes that the number of countries building reactors fell by three from mid-2023 to mid-2024.
Reactors are under construction in 13 countries, down from 16 countries the previous year as the UAE and the US completed their last construction projects and Brazil suspended its only reactor construction project. Only three countries — China, India, and Russia — are building reactors at more than one site.
Just three potential nuclear newcomer countries had reactors under construction as of mid-2024: Egypt, Bangladesh and Turkiye.
WNISR-2024 notes that of 18 African countries analysed, only four would have grid systems large enough to meet minimum capacity criteria to host a large nuclear reactor (based on the rule of thumb that the largest unit in a grid system should not exceed 10 percent of total system capacity).
Small modular reactors might find a niche — but they don’t exist.
Small modular reactors
WNISR-2024 states: “The gap between hype about Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and industrial reality continues to grow. The nuclear industry and multiple governments are doubling down on their investments into SMRs, both in monetary and political terms. So far, reality on the ground does not reflect those efforts.
“SMR projects continue to be delayed or canceled. Costs for nuclear projects in general and SMRs in particular are surging. The few available cost estimates for SMRs, especially when weighted by their electrical power generation capacities, show how expensive these are.”
Two developments over the past year have punctured the hype around SMRs. The first was NuScale’s decision to abandon its flagship project in Idaho after cost estimates rose to an absurd A$30,000 per kilowatt (A$14 billion for a 462 megawatt plant).
Then, French utility EDF announced that it had suspended the development of its Nuward SMR and reoriented the project “to a design based on proven technological building blocks.”
The two operating SMRs — a twin-reactor plant in China and a twin-reactor floating plant in Russia — weren’t built using serial factory construction methods so can’t be called SMRs. Nor are there plans to mass-produce these reactors types using serial factory construction methods, so the so-called SMRs in China and Russia can’t even be called prototype SMRs.
Dutton wants taxpayers to fund the construction of large reactors in the eastern states and SMRs in SA and WA. SA aims to reach 100 percent net renewable electricity generation as soon as 2027. Presumably Dutton wants to replace some of that renewable power generation with SMRs, for some unfathomable reason.
Nuclear vs renewables
Total investment in non-hydro renewable electricity capacity in 2023 was estimated by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) at $US623 billion, up 8 per cent compared to the previous year. According to a WNISR estimate, this represents 27 times the reported global investment decisions for the construction of nuclear power plants of about $US23 billion for 6.7GW.
BNEF estimated investments in stationary storage capacity at around US$36 billion in 2023, which, for the first time, exceeded investments into new nuclear. Globally, utility-scale storage additions jumped from just over 10 GW added in 2022 to more than 25 GW in 2023.
In 2023, annual additions of solar and wind power grew by 73 per cent and 51 per cent, respectively, resulting in nearly 460 GW of combined new capacity, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency.
The solar PV market saw China alone adding around 217 GW — a 150-percent increase over 2022-additions — and the rest of the world 129 GW for a total of 346 GW or about 1 GW per day.
The Global Wind Energy Council reported a record of 117 GW of new wind installations, a 50 per cent year-on-year increase, with China accounting for 65 percent of total added onshore capacity and 58 per cent of total added offshore capacity. These numbers compare with a net addition of 1 GW nuclear capacity in China and a global decline of 1 GW in 2023.
WNISR 2024 states: “In 2021, the combined output of solar and wind plants surpassed nuclear power generation for the first time. In 2023, wind and solar facilities generated 50 percent more electricity than nuclear plants.
“Wind power alone generated 2,300 terawatt-hours (TWh) and is getting close to nuclear’s 2,600 TWh. Since 2013, non-hydro renewables added 3,500 TWh to the world’s power generation, 14 times more than nuclear’s roughly 250 TWh, and generated 80 percent more power than nuclear in 2023.”
In 2023, the European Union achieved its largest renewable capacity additions ever and the renewable share in total electricity generation reached a record 44 percent. Solar and wind plants together produced 721 TWh compared to nuclear’s 588 TWh.
For the first time ever, non-hydro renewables generated more power than all fossil fuels combined in 2023. Fossil fuel power generation dropped by a record 19 percent, reaching its lowest level ever and accounting for less than one-third of the EU’s electricity generation.
In China, solar PV produced a total of 578 TWh of electricity in 2023, 40 percent more than nuclear’s 413 TWh. Wind power generation first exceeded nuclear in 2012: in 2023, wind produced 877 TWh, more than doubling nuclear generation. Adding other non-hydro renewables like biomass to solar and wind, the net total generation of 1,643 TWh in 2023 was four times the nuclear output.
Keep in mind that China is the only country in the world with a significant nuclear power expansion program. It might be a stretch for WNISR-2024 to state that “nuclear power remains irrelevant in the international market for electricity generating technologies”, but it is heading in that direction.
Dr Jim Green is the national nuclear campaigner with Friends of the Earth Australia and a member of the Nuclear Consulting Group.
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