You know the policy stakes are high for federal energy minister Josh Frydenberg when he starts talking power black-outs.
Rolled out time and time again during the South Australian state election in March, Frydenberg dusted off the threat of the lights going out again last week, in the lead-up to the COAG energy council meeting on Friday.
“Here’s an opportunity to avoid the blackouts, that will come, in Victoria if we don’t have a National Energy Guarantee,” he said during an interview last Wednesday.
Victoria, which has become the poster child for those states and territories that aren’t yet prepared to sign up to the NEG – and it is not alone – has become the newest target of the Coalition’s black-out warnings.
After the state, alongside Queensland and the ACT, on Friday stood firm on withholding support for the NEG until the policy had been through the Coalition party room (Tuesday), and on the condition of some key adjustments, Frydenberg was at it again.
After accusing Victorian Labor of “crass short-term political calculations,” Frydenberg assured ABC Insiders host Barrie Cassidy on Sunday that the potential for blackouts in Victoria was not just strong language.
“Well that’s real,” he said. “…“Last September the AEMO said there was a 43 per cent chance of load shedding in Victoria, that’s a euphemism for black-outs.
“Victoria not only has the second-highest prices in Australia, but it also, following the closure of Hazelwood, which took 25 per cent of the supply out the market, has gone from being an exporter of power at times to now being an importer of power.”
And while Cassidy let the comments through uncontested, Victorian energy minister Lily D’Ambrosio was not having a bar of it.
#Insiders @JoshFrydenberg is wrong: Vic is still a net exporter of power and no blackouts anticipated from independent market operator
— Lily D’Ambrosio MP (@LilyDAmbrosioMP) August 11, 2018
Frydenberg responded by doubling down on his comments:
The facts are these @LilyDAmbrosioMP: 1) AEMO said last September “the likelihood of a shortfall and load shedding being between 39% and 43% in Victoria” & 2) Victoria was a net importer of electricity in the last 6 months of 2017 according to the AER’s data.
— Josh Frydenberg (@JoshFrydenberg) August 12, 2018
And at this point, a number of energy market experts including Dylan McConnell – Reserach Fellow at the Melbourne Energy Institute – also jumped on to the Twitter thread to explain why the federal energy minister was talking nonsense.
.@JoshFrydenberg don’t embarrass yourself — you’ve got this wrong *so* many times.
the likelihood of loss of load was *if* nobody did anything. it’s right there in the report: pic.twitter.com/rrVD2Pdt4w
— simon holmes à court (@simonahac) August 12, 2018
The facts are these @JoshFrydenberg – Victoria was a net importer of electricity in the last 6 months of 2017. But that’s a very “selective” view.
Sure, it imports more – but still a net exporter. Likely to be even more so with the new projects coming in under the #VRET #auspol pic.twitter.com/CDilWyeYFZ
— Dylan McConnell (@dylanjmcconnell) August 12, 2018
… And since for 2018 (and indeed over the entire period that Hazelwood has been closed), Victoria has *still* been a net exporter #cherrypicking
#auspol #NEG https://t.co/6shXVu9YNr
— Dylan McConnell (@dylanjmcconnell) August 12, 2018
