Fossil fuel generation may finally have begun its era of decline, with wind and solar grabbing a 12 per cent share of the global electricity generation market, and poised to nearly quadruple that share over the coming decade.
The latest report from UK-based energy think tank Ember note that wind and solar now have a greater than 10 per cent share in more than 60 countries – and 25 per cent in Australia in 2022 – and met 80 per cent of the increased electricity demand (694 terawatt hours) in the last year.
In spite of the global gas crisis and fears of a return to coal, it was that rise in wind and solar that limited the increase in coal generation, which grew by only 1.1). Gas power generation fell very slightly (-0.2%) in 2022.
That still meant that power sector emissions increased by 1.3 per cent in 2022, reaching an all-time high, but the Ember report predicts that it may be the ‘peak’ of electricity emissions and the final year of fossil power growth.
It predicts that 2023 will be the first year when clean power growth is likely to exceed electricity demand growth outside of a recession.
“It is the beginning of the end of the fossil age,” says lead author Małgorzata Wiatros-Motyka. “We are entering the clean power era.”
Ember predicts a small fall in fossil generation (-0.3%) in 2023, but much larger falls in subsequent years as wind and solar deployment accelerates and reached the target of 41 per cent of global electricity by 2030 as modelled by the International Energy Agency
“The stage is set for wind and solar to achieve a meteoric rise to the top,” Wiatros-Motyka said.
“Clean electricity will reshape the global economy, from transport to industry and beyond. A new era of falling fossil emissions means the coal power phasedown will happen, and the end of gas power growth is now within sight.
“Change is coming fast. However, it all depends on the actions taken now by governments, businesses and citizens to put the world on a pathway to clean power by 2040.”
The Ember report shows that solar was the fastest-growing source of electricity for the 18th year in a row, rising by 24% year-on-year and adding enough electricity to power all of South Africa. Wind generation increased by 17% in 2022, enough to power almost all of the UK.
All clean electricity sources (renewables and nuclear) reached 39% of global electricity, a new record high, although coal remains the single largest source of electricity worldwide, producing 36% of global electricity in 2022.
The Ember report says that because of the energy crisis in early 2022, the “coal power phase-down” agreed at COP26 in 2021 has been delayed, but the crisis did not lead to a major increase in coal burn as feared.
However, the number of coal plant closures fell to the lowest level in seven years, although only 31GW of new gas power plants were built in 2022, the lowest in 18 years.
