The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects to see all fossil fuels peak before 2030 as solar PV and electric vehicles (EV) continue to lead the new clean energy economy, a stark reminder for Australia’s politicians that renewable energy is the only way forward.
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2023 (WEO-2023), a wide-ranging analysis and strategic roadmap into every aspect of the global energy system, serves as one of the globe’s primary annual updates into the progress of the clean energy transition.
And according to the IEA, each of the three fossil fuel categories – natural gas, oil, and coal – are set to reach a peak by 2030 even in its mild state policy scenario.
This marks the first time such a prediction has been made by the IEA and reflects not only the current turmoil sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent 2022 global energy crisis, but also current policy settings by governments around the globe and longer-term trends including the rise of green technologies.
As seen in the WEO-2023 Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), the IEA sees the global energy system shifting quicker than expected to low-emissions electricity and energy supply, backed by improvements in energy efficiency which are helping to moderate those energy needs.
The faster-than-expected slump in fossil fuel demand is being met at the same time with an increase in clean energy technologies, specifically solar PV and EVs.
However, it says that in the Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario, the only scenario aligned with limiting temperature rise to close to 1.5°C, fossil fuel extraction and use must decrease by nearly 30 per cent by 2030.
The IEA emphasizes that while renewable energy can ramp up rapidly to meet global energy needs, governments must take more ambitious steps to swiftly and fairly transition away from fossil fuels.
“What this year’s World Energy Outlook underscores is that the takeoff of renewable energy is keeping the path to a livable climate open, but it will close quickly unless governments commit to phase out fossil fuels now,” said Kelly Trout, the research director of Oil Change International.
“We can’t solve the climate crisis by adding renewable energy on top of new fossil fuels – we need to rapidly replace and phase out all fossil fuels, including gas.”
According to the WEO-2023, investment in clean energy has increased already by 20% since 2020, with a range of factors driving investment – including the growing economic case for mature clean energy technologies and a desire to increase energy security.
However, not all clean technologies are enjoying the same level of stability, with the WEO-2023 highlighting specifically the troubles being faced by the global wind energy industry.
Nevertheless, in 2023 alone, the IEA predicts that more than 500GW of renewable energy generation capacity will be added to the global grid, a new record, bolstered by more than $US1 billion per day being spent on solar deployment.
Electric vehicles, on the other hand, are becoming increasingly popular, with one in 25 cars sold in 2020 being electric, expanding to one in 5 in 2023.
“The transition to clean energy is happening worldwide and it’s unstoppable. It’s not a question of ‘if’, it’s just a matter of ‘how soon’ – and the sooner the better for all of us,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA.
“Governments, companies and investors need to get behind clean energy transitions rather than hindering them. There are immense benefits on offer, including new industrial opportunities and jobs, greater energy security, cleaner air, universal energy access and a safer climate for everyone.
“Taking into account the ongoing strains and volatility in traditional energy markets today, claims that oil and gas represent safe or secure choices for the world’s energy and climate future look weaker than ever.”
The report should nevertheless serve as a stark warning to countries, such as Australia, who continue to waver on support for fossil fuels.
“Today’s report is a warning to the government of Australia,” said Richie Merzian, international director of the Smart Energy Council.
“The fossil fuel era is nearing its end, and we can no longer continue to back a horse that’s being outpaced. Continuing the bad bet on polluting fossil fuels like coal is creating fiercer floods, fires and storms, and threatens to saddle Australian families with higher household bills.”
The latest World Energy Outlook reinforces a report published just last week which claimed that half of the world is already past a peak in fossil fuel power, including Australia, which the report claims reached peak fossil fuel demand 12 years ago, which has been followed by a slump of 20%.
Similarly, recent research from Yale University found that over 70% of Australians believe that climate change should be a high or very high government priority, with over 80% backing an increase in renewable energy.
“The message to Prime Minister Albanese today couldn’t be clearer,” continued Merzian. “Australians and the world’s leading energy expert organisation are saying: more renewable energy please, as soon as possible.
“Our international allies, including many key trading partners, have recently backed a tripling of global renewable energy by 2030, and that’s exactly what Australia should be doing too.
“The high-profile UN climate talks are coming in just over a month, and the Prime Minister has a chance to set his legacy and set Australia on a new path by committing to a global target of tripling of renewable energy every year ‘til 2030.”
