Australia in danger of losing top 10 ranking in global solar market

The recently released International Energy Agency 2015 Snapshot Report show that the PV market grew again in 2015 to 50GW, up from 40GW in 2014. The total installed capacity in the IEA PVPS countries and key markets has risen to at over 227 GW and, unlike the Australian market, shows no signs of slowing.

solar installsThe international market has moved rapidly from 1.4 GW in annual installations in 2005 to 16.6 GW in 2010 and 50 GW in 2015.

The introduction of feed‐in tariffs in Germany allowed the industry to move from a niche market to an industrial‐size market. Policies such as these transformed markets and led to economies of scale and accelerated technology improvements in manufacturing and deployment.

Economies of scale in particular have led to steep price declines such that now, even with the withdrawal of substantial number of incentive programs, photovoltaics is increasingly competitive and the market continues to grow year-on-year.

solar growthLast year’s total of 50GW represents a 25 per cent increase year-on-year. With a continuing shift from established OECD markets to new markets, notably in Asia, the Asia‐Pacific region now represents around 59 per cent of the global PV market and is the leading region for the third year in a row.

In Australia, with the Solar Flagships fields coming on line over 2015, the total installed capacity in was 935MW, keeping Australia in the top ten for installed capacity in 2015.

The most significant international market was China, with its market progressing to 15.3 GW. The second largest market was Japan with 11 GW in 2015, ahead of the growing US market, with more than 7 GW. India, with a 2 GW market in 2015 is the rising star in the PV sector.

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But Australia may no longer keep its place in the top ten for installed capacity. India will almost certainly move up the table in 2016, leaving Australia at the bottom of the leader table. Korea and France are installing at a rate that could see Australia lose its long-held position in the top-ten countries for installed solar.

In 22 countries, the annual PV contribution to electricity demand has passed the 1 per cent mark, with Italy at the top of the list at around 8%, followed by Greece at 7.4% and Germany at 7.1%. At 3.3 per cent, Australia remains in the top ten by contribution to demand.

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PV has rapidly taken a place as a major source of electricity in countries all over the world. The speed of its development stems from its unique ability to cover most market segments; from the very small individual systems for rural electrification to utility‐size power plants (today over 750 MWp). From the built environment to large ground‐mounted installations PV is increasingly competitive in a variety of environments.

Renate Egan is chair of the Australian PV Institute

Comments

8 responses to “Australia in danger of losing top 10 ranking in global solar market”

  1. Stewart Rogers Avatar
    Stewart Rogers

    Big deal, feed in tariffs were a rort and we don’t need to follow Germany’s foot prints. Let’s wait till solar/wind can properly compete.

    1. Farmer Dave Avatar
      Farmer Dave

      Stewart, where in the article did the author say that solar was not “properly competing”? What do you mean by “properly competing”, anyway?

      1. Stewart Rogers Avatar
        Stewart Rogers

        It didn’t but it did mention feed in tariffs and that Australia is losing a race. It’s a pointless race to be in when technology and efficiencies are changing so fast. Since 2011 solar is down over 80%, that means if we waited till now to do all the rooftop solar we could have an order of magnitude more.

        1. Vincent Lopez Avatar
          Vincent Lopez

          We should be count ourselves lucky that countries such as Germany made a commitment to kickstart solar with high feed in tariffs many years ago, and in doing so help bring the prices down so much that we can enjoy relatively cheap solar now.

          1. Dispassionate Avatar
            Dispassionate

            I think Stewarts point is pretty much that, free ride and now where the prices are we wouldn’t have had all the cost and actually be enjoying all the benefits and more.
            A pretty compelling point really considering the size and population of Australia and the level of emissions we produce. (Less than 1 or 2% I believe)

  2. Jeremy Chu Avatar
    Jeremy Chu

    Hi Renate, it would be interesting to see these figures on a per-capita basis, though I suppose that would look similar to the % penetration chart.

    1. david H Avatar

      I suspect that we are still doing well on a per-capita basis.

  3. nakedChimp Avatar
    nakedChimp

    So.. a country with ~24 million people is loosing a race of ‘who is currently installing the most solar as a country on this planet’ with countries that have at least 10 times more people?
    Are you insane?
    What rubbish is this comparison?

    Do you have any meaningful numbers like solar pv per capita?

    The only sensible thing in this whole article is the last graph of solar pv vs electricity demand.
    That should have been the only thing in that article..

    And personally I find it interesting that countries such as Italy, Greece, Bulgaria or Czech Republic are better than Oz.. really impressive and a shame for this country really.

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