The Turkish tea queue was double that of the Australian coffee line on Thursday morning in Belém, Brazil, host of the COP30 UN climate talks.
Next door, in the Australian pavilion, a clutch of staffers and departmental reps milled around chatting in the cold light of day.
The news, of course, broke the night before: Australia would not be host to COP31. Instead, tens of thousands of delegates and their camp followers – civil society and the fossil lobby included – would travel to the Turkish resort town of Antalya in 2026 for its “lower carbon” climate COP.
Negotiations were still ongoing – until they weren’t. That was the line to the bitter end. For days, it had been used to keep civil society groups on the ground in check, and to brush off media enquiries from the only two Australian reporters present.
Departmental reps and ministerial advisers faithfully repeated the phrase in response to every enquiry, every request for clarity, every reasonable question, even as the reports citing anonymous sources piled up and the Turkish delegation were overheard celebrating.
“I am informed negotiations are ongoing.” There was nothing more to say, apparently. No clarification or explanation about what exactly was being negotiated. Negotiations were happening, and they were ongoing. That was it. That’s all anyone needed to know.
When an answer did come, it was swift: a clipped, five minute doorstop delivered by climate change and energy minister Chris Bowen outside the Australian delegation office.
Its thrust was predictable: state Australia’s goals, glance furtively in the general direction of Russia without naming names when talking about vetoes, frame the defeat as a tactical retreat in defence of multilateralism, unpack some of the detail and offer condolences.
“I know some people will be disappointed in that outcome. Other people, of course, would be even more disappointed if it had gone to Bonn without a COP president in place,” Bowen said.
This last bit was misleading. Had the bid defaulted to Germany, Brazil would have remained the COP President – but that’s a technicality. If anyone was disappointed in the outcome, it would have been Bowen, who had championed the bid, as had his department.
Staff had been seconded, plans formed. COP31 could have been the first ever climate negotiation held in Oceania, a bold chance for Australia, a major fossil fuel producer, to weigh in on international affairs and to show, for once and for all, it was serious about climate change.
It was not to be – an outcome that might be welcomed in some quarters. Since the failed Indigenous Voice to Parliament referendum, Australia isn’t in the business of being bold. It does business as usual. Boldness, after all, attracts attention. Boldness is risky and doesn’t carry the same return on investment as gas or coal.
In recent weeks, the Coalition, a historical close friend of the country’s oil, gas and coal producers, finally decided to come clean about its position on climate change and The Paris Climate Agreement: it thinks it’s bunk.
Hosting a COP in Adelaide next November would have guaranteed 12 months of headlines from the Coalition whinging about how much it will cost and how all it will do is give away taxpayer dollars to developing countries.
It would be cheaper for everyone to stay home – as Albanese had. According to Labor sources, the PM had a lot on during that first week of COP30, anyway.
If the domestic politics around climate change were unclear, it was DCCEEW departmental secretary Mike Kaiser who set things straight on Monday in Belém when he said the government could only move as fast as median voters Suburban Joe and Country Jane allowed.
“Whether it’s fossil fuel subsidies or any other topic that we might wish, from a public sector perspective that government takes more rapid action on, you know, they’ve got an interest in being returned to office,” Kaiser said.
“And if it was so blindingly obvious that that was a path to more votes, then they would take that path. These issues, when seen from the perspective of a national government that has to balance considerations, are always more complex.
“If it was blindingly obvious, if it was blindingly beneficial to a government, politically, it would do it tomorrow. Common sense makes sense.”
Of course, those average Australians who lost their homes when the East Coast burned during the Black Christmas bushfires and Lismore drowned may disagree.
So too might those whose livelihoods have been destroyed by the horror show that is the lingering toxic algal bloom floating off the South Australian coast – especially after documents obtained under Freedom of Information showed the federal government refused to offer any help that meant it would be required to spend more money.
In the bigger picture, the result adds to a string of tactical retreats for the small-target Albanese government and its large majority in the lower house. Prior to the election, the Prime Minister intervened at the last minute to yank a deal with The Greens on environmental reforms negotiated by Tanya Plibersek.
Ed Husic was dumped from Cabinet and moved to the backbench as Israel’s siege of Gaza reached a crescendo. Even federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers backed down on superannuation reform.
Whether or not any conclusions might be drawn from pattern of behaviour, the reaction to the failed COP31 bid will linger. Australia had talked up a storm about the “Pacific Family”, but did not deliver. Woodside, meanwhile, seems to get whatever it wants.
All the financial and political capital civil society, industry and Indigenous groups had invested into the bid over two years turned out to be for nothing. In the cold light of day, some tried to find a silver lining in a negotiated solution that tried to ensure the Pacific won something out of COP31.
Others quietly – and strictly off the record – felt they had been played for fools. Despite the efforts to frame the loss as a valiant defeat following a noble effort, many walked away with a feeling domestic Australian politics had trumped the public good.
Now that COP30 in Brazil is no longer about Australia, many Australians may switch off as the process lurches on. Ten years after the Paris Agreement was signed, even as emissions continue to rise, the final texts are yet to be negotiated and agreed.
What is decided in Belém will shape how the world, including Australia, responds as the atmosphere continues to destabilise.
Billions in investment will be re-routed based on these words, and the commitments governments make on issues like the Just Transition Mechanism and a possible fossil fuel roadmap will determine the fate of oil, gas and coal.
As of Thursday in Belém, negotiations do in fact remain ongoing – at least until a fire in the Blue Zone forced an evacuation, and a delay.
