Australia posted warmer than average temperatures in October but it was rainfall that provided the standout anomalies for the month, particularly in Queensland.
Last month, Australia posted almost twice the average rainfall for October, with an average of 44 millimetres recorded by the Bureau of Meteorology.
However, the Sunshine State copped about triple the typical rainfall for the month, with 75.8 mm recorded on average.
The rainfall average was the state’s second most for any October in data going back to 1900, exceeded only by 1949’s average of just over 90 mm, the bureau data showed.
Queensland wasn’t alone in recording an unusually wet October, with large parts of the inland also unseasonably damp.
The above-average rainfall demonstrates that El Nino years do not always mean dry spells set in over eastern Australia, with conditions over the Indian Ocean and the Southern Ocean also playing a role in the island continent’s weather.
Tasmania continued to be relatively dry, though. Energy in storage in Hydro Tasmania’s dams sit at 50.1% of capacity.
Some commentators have noted that most of the world’s oceans are significantly warmer than normal. For most of the Australian region, the bureau said last week it expects sea-surface temperatures to warm in coming months.
“Warmer waters can enhance atmospheric moisture and energy that can fuel storms and rain systems, increasing potential for high-intensity rainfall,” it said.
The El Nino, meanwhile, continues to strengthen, according to all the main models that the bureau relies on, with the event’s intensity expected to peak later this month or in December and remain above El Nino threshold levels into next southern autumn.
“Relative Nino 3.4 values are forecast to exceed the highest levels observed since reliable records began in 1950,” it said last week.
The El Nino is likely to contribute to lifting global surface temperatures to record levels this year and/or next year. The spike in warmth, though, is building on the background warming of the planet because of human-induced climate change.
The bureau and the CSIRO are expected to release their latest state of the climate report this month. The 2024 version of the biennial report stated that Australia’s temperatures had risen by an average of about 1.5 degrees compared with 1910 levels.
In October, mean, minimum and maximum temperatures in Australia were all above the 1961-90 average, with minimums coming in at the fourth warmest on record. Mean temperatures for the month were the ninth warmest.
For mean temperatures, October was the second warmest on record for Tasmania, exceeded only by October in 1963, the bureau’s data showed.
