Solar module prices reached 57c/watt in 2015, to continue fall

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Tier-1 Chinese-produced solar PV modules fell 10 per cent year-over-year and reached US 57 cents per watt in the fourth quarter of 2015.

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GTM Research provides a solar-module price analysis in the latest PV Pulse.
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Greentech Media

GTM Research provides a solar-module price analysis in the latest PV Pulse.
GTM Research provides a solar-module price analysis in the latest PV Pulse.

According to GTM Research’s latest edition of the PV Pulse, the global blended average price for a tier-1 Chinese-produced multicrystalline PV module fell 10 per cent year-over-year and reached US 57 cents per watt in the fourth quarter of 2015.

“While underwhelming demand in 2014 left its trace on pricing in early 2015, supply-demand tightness and tariffs drove price trends in the second half of the year,” said Jade Jones, a senior solar analyst at GTM Research.

Here are GTM Research’s estimates for component prices as of the fourth quarter of 2014.

Source: GTM Research PV Pulse, March 2016
Source: GTM Research PV Pulse, March 2016

Assuming a stable supply-demand landscape, GTM Research anticipates that global blended prices will steadily fall at an annualized rate of 5 percent and reach 44 cents per watt by 2020.

Source: GTM Research PV Pulse, March 2016
Source: GTM Research PV Pulse, March 2016

In the near term, GTM Research’s initial outlook sees polysilicon and wafer prices up year-over-year. Jones notes that the polysilicon pricing forecast is driven by inventory and margin recovery, while wafer prices are driven by a tight supply-demand balance. Cell and module prices are both expected to be down this year.

Source: Greentech Media. Reproduced with permission.

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1 Comment
  1. James Fisher 3 years ago

    There is no mention of exchange rates and their impact on module prices in this analysis (or at least the summary above.) Critically the RMB fell nearly 10% against the US$ in the past 12 months. This alone could account for the majority of the price reduction rather than a reduction in direct manufacturing costs. Maybe margins are beginning to fatten?

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