On Sunday night Australian time, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will release its latest report on the technical potential and economics of reducing carbon pollution. This report follows the release of the IPCC report on the physical science of climate change and subsequent report on climate change impacts and vulnerability.
A key element of the IPCC report coming out this weekend will be an assessment of the emission reductions required to avoid a 2oC increase in global temperature above preindustrial levels. Avoiding this increase in global temperature is a focus of the report and the current goal of over 190 governments, including Australia. It is also key benchmark that will be used to assess whether proposed national targets are adequate.
In its last carbon reduction or mitigation report in 2007, the IPCC indicated that countries like Australia would need to reduce emissions by 25-40 per cent on 1990 levels by 2020 and 80-95 percent by 2050 to give a 50/50 chance of avoiding a 2oC increase in global temperature. This target range became a benchmark by which national targets were discussed. For example, many nations (including Australia, the USA, the EU, Norway and Japan) indicated willingness to reduce emissions on this scale in advance of the Copenhagen climate summit.
The new report from the IPCC will likely have a similar impact. It is likely to indicate that global emissions need to fall significantly by 2030. Leaked draft versions indicate that countries like Australia will need to reduce emissions by 50 per cent on 2010 levels by 2030 to be consistent with the goal of avoiding 2oC. Over this same period, major emerging economies like China would need to see emissions peak and begin to fall.
Other important elements of the new IPCC report are likely to be:
+ Keeping warming below 2oC is possible, but action is required across all major countries and major emitting sectors. Turning our coal, oil and gas based energy system to one based on clean energy sources like wind and solar, improving the energy efficiency of our buildings, industries and transport sector, stopping deforestation and developing carbon removal technologies are all essential ingredients to effective action.
+ Climate policy decisions can provide broader benefits, such as reductions in air pollution and improvements in energy security. There are some costs to achieving climate goals, but these are manageable (global GDP growth continues but is a few percentage points lower in 2100) if effective action is not delayed.
+ Effective national climate policy should include economy-wide carbon pricing, using regulations to overcome barriers to action, and creating long-term investment signals through policies like Australia’s Renewable Energy Target. They will also likely note that removing subsides to fossil fuels would stimulate both major emission reductions and economic benefits.
Implications for Australia’s emission reduction ambitions
“We think it should be possible for Parties to come up with draft [post-2020 emission] commitments by early 2015, in time for a consultative process to take place during 2015.” — U.S. Government Submission on the 2015 Agreement
Most recent discussion of Australia’s emission reduction goals has focused on our bipartisan-supported commitment to reduce emissions by 5-25 per cent below 2000 levels by 2020. Most recently, the independent Climate Change Authority (CCA) recommended that Australia target 19 per cent reductions on 2000 levels by 2020. Appreciating that emission reductions will be required after 2020, the CCA has also recommended that Australia reduce emissions by 40-60 per cent on 2000 levels by 2030 and national carbon limit (or budget) to 2050.
This year, the international process is focused on not only increasing countries’ 2020 targets but also setting new targets beyond 2020 (Figure 1).
Critically, Australia and other major emitters have agreed to provide their possible post-2020 emission targets by April 2015. These targets are to be examined internationally before the new Paris climate agreement is finalised in December 2015. As a result, many countries have started work on developing new post-2020 emission reduction goals (for example Table 1).
A key criterion in this evaluation will be whether each country’s target is consistent with a fair contribution to avoiding warming of 2oC. The IPCC’s conclusions in this regard will shape this global conversation.
It is important to note that how the percentage reductions are expressed is strongly influenced by the base year used (eg, 2010 levels in the above), the global carbon budget used, the probability of avoiding 2oC, and the method used to define national contributions to this global goal. For example, Australia’s national goals are set based on 2000 levels not 2010 levels.
Regardless of how this is approached, for Australia to play our fair part in global emission reductions after 2020, emission reductions will have to be much stronger than Australia’s current target range of 5-25 percent emission reductions by 2020. A domestic policy framework that can’t achieve this scale of emission reduction by 2030 is neither sustainable nor economically prudent.
Australia silent on targets to avoid dangerous climate change
The Foreign Minister, who is responsible for these targets, has not yet outlined what domestic preparations Australia is making to develop its post-2020 target or whether we will join other major emitters in advancing our initial target offer by the first quarter of 2015. With the Clean Energy Act still in legal force the Government is required to set out caps to 2020 by end of May 2014 (s.16).
To date the ALP has deferred making a decision on its 2020 targets on at least three occasions. They have continually sought independent expert advice as a way of avoiding political confrontation on the issue. All the authors of the independent advice the ALP has commissioned have recommended at least a 15 per cent reduction in emissions by 2020 and greater long-term reductions tied to avoiding a 2oC increase in global temperature.
Table 1: National process to define post-2020 emission goals. This table includes information available to date. Nations are currently working through their domestic processes to define what information they will submit in 2015 and more information will emerge on national processes as we get closer to the UN Secretary General’s world leaders climate change summit in September and the next climate talks in Peru this December. Table 1 also shows national 2050 targets on which countries may reference post-2020 emission goals.
| Country | Process | Indicative targets 2021-2030 |
| EU |
EU Council to agree post-2020 target by October 2013 at the latest.
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At least 40 percent on 1990 levels by 2030. Additional reductions possible through international carbon credit purchases.
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| USA |
Interagency working group established. Agreed to work with China on sharing information on possible post-2020 contributions.
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Past US proposals submitted to the UN outline a trajectory where emissions would fall by over 40 per cent in 2030.
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| UK |
National carbon budgets set based on independent Climate Change Committee advice.
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50 percent by 2025, 60 percent by 2030 (both on 1990 levels).
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| China |
National Development and Reform Commission lead agency. Possible inclusion in 13th Five-Year Plan which will be completed in 2015. Agreed to work with USA on sharing information on possible post-2020 contributions.
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China’s national climate and energy targets currently extend to 2020. National emission trading scheme to be established by 2020. The level of the emission limit under discussion internally within China including examination of peaking national emissions or coal use over this period.
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| Mexico |
Longer-term targets established in domestic legislation. Possible post-2020 offer in December 2014.
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Emission goal will likely be calculated national 2050 target of 50 per cent reductions by 2050 compared to 2000 levels. Will likely include target to provide 35 per cent of Mexico’s electricity from clean sources by 2024.
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| South Africa |
Domestic climate change white paper process to set national and sectoral carbon budgets.
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42 per cent below business as usual by 2025, based on which emissions should peak between 2020/2025 and plateau for a decade thereafter.
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| Current national 2050 targets | ||
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EU
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80-95 per cent reductions on 1990 levels in domestic emissions
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USA
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83 per cent on 2005 levels
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Japan
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80 per cent reductions on 1990 levels
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New Zealand
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50 per cent reductions on 1990 levels
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Norway
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100 per cent reductions on 1990 levels (carbon neutrality)
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Mexico
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50 per cent reductions on 2000 levels
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Figure 1. International and domestic emission reduction goal processes (2014-2015). The stylised line indicates the level of international political pressure and scrutiny of Australia’s emission reduction goals. Light grey boxes are Australia’s domestic target setting processes. When Australia’s international peers may advance their post-2020 emission reductions offices is also indicated.
John Connor is CEO of The Climate Institute.
