The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says wind and solar energy are essential to achieve the bulk of rapid reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions – while also delivering some of the cheapest new supplies of energy.
The central role that renewable energy technologies will play in keeping global warming within safe limits has been detailed in the latest working group report of the IPCC, published on Tuesday, which made a clarion call for “immediate and deep emissions reductions”.
It said these are necessary across all sectors of the global economy to stem rising greenhouse gas levels, and keep a global warming limit of 1.5 degrees within reach.
According to the IPCC, wind and solar technologies can deliver the most extensive potential cuts to greenhouse gas emissions by replacing fossil fuels in the global energy system, dwarfing the potential contribution of more costly technologies like carbon capture and storage.
“Large contributions with costs less than US$20 per tonne CO2 come from solar and wind energy, energy efficiency improvements, reduced conversion of natural ecosystems and methane emissions reductions,” the report says.
The IPCC said the dramatic reductions in the cost of wind, solar and battery storage technologies over the last decade meant they were already commercially viable and would be the key to decarbonising most of the world’s energy systems.
CSIRO adjunct science leader, and one of the co-authors of the report, professor Tommy Wiedmann, said these achievements made it possible for the world to halve greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the decade.
“Since 2010, the cost for renewable energy technology has fallen dramatically. Solar power is now 87 per cent cheaper, wind 55 per cent and batteries are now 85 per cent cheaper than ten years ago. The capacity of renewable energy installed has exceeded previous expectations,” professor Wiedmann told a media briefing.
“The IPCC report says that greenhouse gas emissions can be halved by 2030, which is what we need to achieve the Paris goals.”
“This can be done. It can be done with solar and wind replacing fossil fuel energy. With energy efficiency improvements with reduce deforestation, with soil carbon storage and methane emissions reductions.”
Such is the rapid pace at which emissions now need to be cut to keep global warming to within safe levels that the IPCC warned that much of the world’s fossil fuel infrastructure could become stranded investments – including coal assets as early as 2030.
The director of the Centre for Climate Economics and Policy at the Australian National University, and a lead author of the IPCC report, professor Frank Jotzo, told a media briefing that even keeping global warming to within 2 degrees would require dramatic reductions in fossil fuel use.
“Fossil fuel use would dramatically decline in any kind of scenario that involves keeping temperatures to below 2 degrees,” Jotzo said.
“The estimated reductions in fossil fuel use by 2050 for 2-degree compatible scenarios include a reduction in coal use global coal use by between 65 and 95 per cent, oil use by 15 to 50 per cent and gas with a very wide range, from an increase of 10 per cent to a reduction of 40 per cent.”
“The reductions are even deeper for a 1.5-degree scenario, of course, and they’re also deeper if there is no abundant availability for carbon capture and storage.”
The IPCC estimates that the global value of stranded fossil fuel assets could fall between US$1 to $4 trillion by 2040 if global warming is kept to 2 degrees, and again the figure would be higher in a scenario that limits warming to just 1.5 degrees.
“Limiting global warming to 2 degrees or below will leave a substantial amount of fossil fuels unburned and could strand considerable fossil fuel infrastructure,” the IPCC report says.
“In this context, coal assets are projected to be at risk of being stranded before 2030, while oil and gas assets are projected to be more at risk of being stranded toward mid-century.”
While the IPCC acknowledged that carbon capture and storage technologies had the potential to contribute to cutting emissions at the scale needed, it noted that the deployment of carbon capture and storage projects was currently too slow.
The report shows carbon capture and storage projects – which have been a major beneficiary of the Morrison government’s ‘technology not taxes’ policy approach – are expected to contribute a much smaller amount to global mitigation efforts – and at the higher end of the cost spectrum.
Member of the Climate Council and former BP executive, Greg Bourne said Australia’s slow rate of action when it came to climate change contributed to increased risk to communities through climate impacts and left Australians exposed to economic risks.
“Australia’s lack of credible urgent action on climate change is putting more Australians in harm’s way and means our nation is missing out on immediate and long-term economic opportunities,” Bourne said.
“Avoiding the worst climate damage means abandoning plans for further fossil fuel expansion and going all-in on adopting zero emission alternatives to coal, oil and gas.”
Independent MP, Zali Steggall, said the Australian economy would benefit from stronger climate action, but was instead suffering as the climates of climate change became more evident.
“Immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors are possible and the payoff would be enormous. Business as usual is not an option any more,” Steggall said.
“Climate disasters have already cost us over $10.3 billion over the last 3 years alone, and this cost is set to compound for all Australians through cost of living impacts across insurance, fuel, food and more.”
