The Clean Energy Regulator says it has lifted its projections for large scale wind and solar projects in Australia for 2025, saying it now expects up to 3.5 gigawatts (GW) to be approved in the current calendar year.
The CER, in its latest report released on Friday, says that 2.6 GW of large scale renewable capacity has been approved for the creation of large scale generation certificates in 2025, up to August 22. This included 1.5 GW in the second quarter.
The CER says that as a result of this it has now revised its 2025 projection for large scale renewable approvals up from its previous advice of 2.7 to 3.1 GW to a new range of 3.0 to 3.5 GW.
However, the CER has also admitted that projects awarded contracts under the federal government’s flagship Capacity Investment Scheme are making slower than expected progress.
It says most of the CIS tender 1 projects will need more time to reach FID (final investment decision), in contrast to earlier expectations when it predicted 6 GW of FID approvals in 2025.
“Based on progress to date, we now expect this capacity to reach FID over a longer timeframe,” it said.
“Publicly available information shows 10 of the 19 projects awarded under Tender 1 of the CIS have made progress towards FID,” it noted.
Several had received development approvals, were granted Renewable Energy Zone (REZ) rights, or had started Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation (EPBC) Act assessments during Q2 2025.
“Of the 6.4 GW of capacity supported under Tender 1 of the CIS, 4.5 GW has advanced in its development since the announcement of successful projects.
“This includes 1 GW that has had EPBC applications approved, started construction, or been accredited under the LRET.”
The CER said one of the 19 Tender 1 projects (the 450 MW Goulburn River solar farm in NSW) has reached FID and is under construction, and one (the Mokoan solar farm) has been accredited.
“Future tenders are expected to support more capacity and be faster, with the CIS expanding to 40 GW by 2030 and using a single stage bid process,” it said, noting that the expended capacity – announced by federal climate and energy minister Chris Bowen – had been facilitated by the falling cost of solar and batteries.
Wind energy continues to struggle with no projects reaching FID in 2025 so far, although a number of new projects are positioning themselves to reach FID in 2026.
These include the 831 MW Pottinger wind project in NSW, the 300 MW Goyder North project in South Australia, and the first 132 MW stage of Fortescue’s East Pilbara generation hub in Western Australia.
A number of other new projects are also thought to be approaching FID, including some in the CIS tender 1 process, such as the Palmer wind project in South Australia.
The CER noted that the projects approved for LGC generation in the 2nd quarter included the Stubbo and Wollar solar farms in NSW, the Clarke Creek wind farm in Queensland, and the Mokoan solar farm in Victoria, which is the first of the CIS tender 1 projects to achieve that milestone.
From July 1 to August 22, an 820 MW of capacity was approved, including 440 MW from Culcairn solar farm in NSW and two biomass projects.
As for projects reaching FID, the CER identified only 672 MW in the second quarter, all of them solar – the Wandoan South, Cloudbreak, and Lancaster solar farms. None were involved in the CIS.
“This is around 75% of the average we have seen over the first 2 quarters since 2019. It should be noted however that FID is inherently variable over time,” it said.
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