“Pouring oil on climate fire:” Global fossil fuel use must halve by 2035 to avoid catastrophic climate damage

Global fossil fuel use must halve by 2035 and be phased out entirely by 2070 at the latest if the world is to keep global warming below 1.5°C by the end of the century, according to a new analysis published on Wednesday.

The new briefing from Climate Analytics lays out an initial look at potential global and national roadmaps that align with the latest science and minimise the magnitude and duration of overshoot beyond the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

And the most important lever available to humanity is transitioning away from fossil fuels, given that fossil fuel production and use is currently responsible for 70 per cent of global emissions.

“Fossil fuels are still pouring oil on the climate fire,” said Dr Neil Grant, senior expert for mitigation pathways at Climate Analytics.

“Our analysis is clear: we need to cut fossil fuel use sharply this decade, halve it by 2035, and drive it down to real zero by 2070.”

According to the Climate Analytics brief, which builds Highest Possible Ambition scenario developed in conjunction with Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), fossil fuel production and use should have peaked in 2025, before falling 20 per cent by 2030, 50 per cent by 2035, and reaching zero globally by 2070.

This so-called Highest Possible Ambition scenario would therefore see temperatures peak at 1.7°C before falling to well below 1.5°C before 2100.

The scenario sees coal phased out globally by 2050, gas by 2060, and oil by 2070.

The brief – released in the second week of the interim UN climate talks in Bonn – highlights that oil and gas demand will decline fast enough in a Paris-aligned transition to avoid the need for new oil and gas fields, with existing and already approved fields already more than sufficient to meet declining demand.

“New oil and gas fields are incompatible with any credible transition away from fossil fuels,” said Bill Hare, CEO at Climate Analytics.

“Gas use needs to be reduced rapidly in the short term to half of 2023 levels by 2035. And yet governments and fossil fuel companies continue to pour billions into expanding production, particularly of fossil gas. This is a fast-track pathway to climate chaos.

“If we slow the phase-out, we are left with two dangerous options: rely even more heavily on carbon removal and carbon capture technologies that are limited and uncertain or accept higher levels of temperature overshoot and climate damage. The safer route is a rapid, planned phase-out of fossil fuels, powered by clean electrification.”

Electrification remains the central enabler of a scientifically aligned transition, with clean electricity able to replace fossil fuels across power, transport, buildings, and industry, providing almost two-thirds of energy demand by the middle of the century.

At a national level, advanced economies have to take the lead, cutting fossil fuel demand immediately and reaching fossil-free economies by 2050 to allow middle- and lower-income countries to follow pathways informed by individual circumstances.

Nevertheless, fossil fuel demand must peak by 2030 at the latest for all countries and reach fossil fuel phase-out by 2070.

The full briefing is available to download here.

See also: Australia endorses ambitious new global electrification target to hasten exit from fossil fuels

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