“They are losing patience:” Just one in ten investors believe Australia will meet renewables target

Queensland has somehow managed to cling on to a spot near the apex of preferred locations for investors in Australia, coming in at number two in a recent investor confidence survey – despite scrapping its renewables target and calling in a number of projects.

But a new survey from the Clean Energy Investor Group says investor sentiment has cooled dramatically across the country, driven by concerns over planning and transmission issues, and a looming capital gains tax on the industry.

While the investment climate in the Sunshine state has chilled only slightly, according to the Clean Energy Investor Group’s latest survey sentiment about Australia is now in the freezer.

“Investors are losing patience with a system that isn’t delivering at pace, and creating additional barriers, like the proposed Capital Gains Tax on existing international clean energy investments,” said CEIG CEO Richie Merzian. 

“It’s no wonder less than one in ten investors see Australia meeting its 2030 clean energy target.”

According to the CEIG survey, just 58 per cent of investors continue to view Australia as a somewhat or very attractive destination for clean energy investment, down from 69 per cent last year. 

The decline isn’t a surprise, and the latest findings mirror a similar report by the Investor Group on Climate Change (IGCC) in June, which found institutional investors are “largely downbeat” about the renewable energy landscape in Australia.

The clean energy industry was buoyant last year when the pro-renewables Labor government was returned in the 2025 federal election.

Environment minister Murray Watt pushed through long-awaited EPBC reforms, and four projects managed to reach final investment decisions (FID) right at the death of the year.

It led to hopes that 2026 would be a bumper year for both projects reaching FID, and sorting out planning tangles that see some parts of the process duplicated at state and federal levels.

But none of these have panned out, with a number of developers recently telling Renew Economy they’re not aiming for FID until next year, and planning issues coming in at number two on the CEIG list of things to fix. 

“The immediate barriers to investment have shifted in priority. Transmission now tops the list of challenges, followed by state planning (which was tied first in 2025),” the survey says. 

“To help unlock investment in the longer term, investors agreed on the need for certainty, in both coal closures and market and policy settings.”

Almost all investors hope data centre demand will give the industry the kick it needs to take off. 

NSW tops list again

And yet, despite being the state with the slowest planning processes, New South Wales (NSW) with its bipartisan support for the transition and big energy loads still ranks at the top of places to invest.

Queensland edges in at number two largely thanks to not having transmission problems – or uncertainty around coal closures as the state – although energy policy uncertainty is a real issue. 

The Crisafulli government has shaken many investors, after calling in a series of wind and battery projects for further scrutiny, changing laws to increase the planning burden on renewable projects, and making coal, and then gas, the state’s energy priorities.

However, while CEIG’s investors are still giving Queensland the benefit of the doubt, the IGCC survey is worried the state’s move “out of step with other jurisdictions” and changes to its own rules of engagement are indicative of a lack of policy durability through election cycles.

Faster, stronger, more certain

CEIG members believe the changes that need to be made to clear the way for faster renewable energy development are clear: “accelerate transmission, strengthen revenue certainty, deepen offtake markets and turn available capital into connected clean energy projects faster.”

But accelerating transmission is one area that onlookers are sceptical will help in the short term. 

Trying to get projects that are already in planning processes or construction, such as VNI West and the Western Renewables Link in Victoria, or Project Energy Connect and Humelink in NSW, is “like trying to stuff toothpaste back in the tube,” says Ty Christopher, director of the Energy Futures Network at University of Wollongong.

“You can’t change them without a time machine,” he told Renew Economy.

“The real structural problem is these huge infrastructure projects are characterised by having a small number of people bear the most affect because it’s near where they live and work, but they see little of the benefit, and a large number of people who suffer little to no impact but who bear a lot of the benefit.”

Christopher says the problem is that planning requirements still don’t make room for communities to have real conversations with developers about how they might benefit from an infrastructure project.

Nexa Advisory CEO Stephanie Bashir also lays the transmission problem at the door of planning. She suggests tweaks such as making transmission companies accountable for delivering on time and on budget, and opening up major projects to competing bids rather than allocating them to the regional network operator would speed up future projects.

“Transmission is the missing link in the energy transition. In Australia, transmission is being delayed because of slow planning and approvals, failure to give investors the certainty they need, and weak delivery accountability,” she says.

“Governments have not done the basics in order to ‘rewire the nation’.”

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