In what is being hailed as a “pivotal moment” and an “historic first”, the accumulated capacity of wind and solar projects in China has overtaken coal for the first time, and solar capacity alone is predicted to overtake coal within two years.
China is, by some distance now, the biggest greenhouse gas polluter in the world because of its population and the scale of its industry, and what happens in its grid, and how quickly it can reach peak emissions is critical for the course of climate change action. Some believe it may already have reached that peak.
“We’re at a pivotal moment for both China and the global energy transition,” says Simeng Deng, a senior analyst at Rystad Energy.
“With strong renewable energy project pipelines in place, the country is on track to shed its reputation as the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter and power consumer. Solar energy will be central to this transformation, with advancements in supply chains, infrastructure and capacity additions set to surpass coal in future energy production.
“This shift could be a landmark achievement, potentially transforming China from a coal-dependent giant into a leader in clean energy.
Rystad Energy says it has analysed the latest data from China’s National Energy Administration and says the additions of wind and solar have outstripped coal in China by a factor of 16 in the first half of 2024 – as new coal additions slump to just eight gigawatts.
Wind and solar energy have – as of June this year – collectively eclipsed coal in capacity, and Rystad Energy says solar power alone will surpass coal as China’s primary energy source in 2026, with a cumulative capacity exceeding 1.38 terawatts (TW)—150 gigawatts (GW) more than coal.
Rystad Energy notes that since 2020, annual installations of wind and solar energy have consistently exceeded 100 GW, three to four times the capacity additions for coal.
“This momentum has only gathered pace since then, with last year seeing China set a record with 293 GW of wind and solar installations, bolstered by gigawatt-scale renewable hub projects from the NEA’s first and second batches connected to the country’s grid,” it says.
“China’s coal power sector is moving in the opposite direction. Last year, approximately 40 GW of coal power was added, but this figure plummeted to 8 GW in the first half of 2024.”
It notes that China has imposed stricter restrictions on new coal projects to meet carbon reduction goals and efforts are now focused on phasing out smaller coal plants, upgrading existing ones to reduce emissions and enforcing more stringent standards for new projects.
