The state of Western Australia must target emission reductions of between 17-45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, and 42-64 per cent by 2035, to keep up with the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5°C, a new report has found.
The report, by science and policy institute Climate Analytics, has proposed a range of 1.5°C-aligned targets for WA, which remains the only Australian state yet to set its own emissions reduction targets on the path to net zero by 2050.
And, clearly, targets are needed. The report reveals that the state’s gross emissions – that is, those excluding the Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) sector – have risen by nearly 50% above 2005 levels, largely due to rising energy emissions.
Source: Climate Analytics
In turn, a tripling of the state’s gas production between 2005 and 2023 has been the main driver of soaring energy emissions: excluding the LNG sector, gross emissions have increased by 14%.
By contrast, Australia’s gross emissions have decreased by 1% (9% excluding WA) since 2005, excluding calculations for land use.
Source: Climate Analytics
Western Australia’s failures are many, according to Climate Analytics, despite being Australia’s wealthiest state, and despite its access to abundant renewable energy resources.
“Slow progress on renewables, slow electrification, ongoing support for carbon intensive fossil fuel projects without incentives to decarbonise … support for virtually indefinite continuation of LNG exports and exploration, and development of new gas resources, including potential fracking in the Kimberley” are listed by the report as key obstacles to emission reductions in the state.
“From coral bleaching to heatwaves and floods, WA is experiencing its own share of extreme climate events, which will only get worse if we continue pumping fossil fuels into the atmosphere,” said Bill Hare, the Perth-based CEO of Climate Analytics, who is currently Adjunct Professor at Murdoch University’s School of Engineering.
“It is only by taking action to limit warming to as close as possible to 1.5°C that we can give our coral reefs a chance at survival – and these targets would set WA onto the right pathway.”
In order to align with 1.5°C pathways, Climate Analytics researchers say WA would need to reduce its net emissions – which includes the carbon sinks from the land use, land-use change, and forestry sector, also known as LULUCF – by between 42 and 47 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, and by between 63 and 90 per cent below 2005 levels by 2035.
Source: Climate Analytics
According to Climate Analytics, this is because the state’s emissions “have increased sharply since 2005, due to the development of its massive LNG industry – which now accounts for around 23% of the state’s emissions – and contributions from energy-intensive mining sectors.
“As a result, WA reductions start from a higher absolute level of emissions relative to 2005, but WA percentage reductions required below current levels by 2030 and 2035 are similar to those for Australia.”
Further, top-level national emissions reduction targets set under the Paris Agreement are usually set in terms of net emissions. However, the main driver of climate change is fossil fuel CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions from industry and agriculture – emissions which are outside of the LULUCF sector, and which are referred to as gross emissions.
Thus, to align with 1.5°C pathways, Western Australia’s gross emission reduction target should be at least 17 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, and 42 per cent by 2035.
Source: Climate Analytics
Beyond 2035, Climate Analytics finds that WA’s net greenhouse gas emissions must become negative between 2040 and 2050 ahead of the state government’s stated – though not yet legislated – goal of reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions by the middle of this century.
The setting of its own 2030 and 2035 1.5°C-aligned climate targets is doubly important for Western Australia, as it comes as the federal government is preparing Australia’s own Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) emissions reduction target for 2035.
As part of this process, Climate Analytics is calling on Australia to strengthen its current 2030 NDC as well, considering that Australia is only targeting a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions of 43 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 – a level which, were other countries to follow suit, would see global warming reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.
Were Western Australia to enact its own 2030 and 2035 1.5°C climate targets, this would also better enable the Australian government to set stronger emission reduction goals for the whole of the country – goals which were recently reinforced by the July 2025 International Court of Justice’s CJ advisory opinion on climate change.
