Morrison fumbles in Rome, but his main game is to block progress at Glasgow

Two weeks of international climate talks are off to an inauspicious start – with some of the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters failing to agree to end the use of coal – and Australian is centre stage, and not just because prime minister Scott Morrison is dealing with the fallout from self-inflicted diplomatic wounds.

On Sunday, as the opening ceremony of the COP26 talks kick-started proceedings in Glasgow, leaders of the G20 group of countries met to discuss cooperation on a range of issues, including climate change and the ongoing response to Covid-19.

But the G20 failed to reach agreement on a crucial deadline for the phase-out of fossil fuels, due to opposition from Australia, China and India, which prevented any language being included in the G20 communique that would suggest countries would commit to ending their use of coal, gas and oil altogether.

The group agreed to cease international funding for coal fired generation – mirroring a commitment previously made by China during the United Nations General Assembly, in September – and will focus on the development of low emissions projects when supporting lower income countries to build their electricity grids.

It is becoming clear that Australia is set to again play a major blocking role during the COP26 talks, a taste of which we’ve already seen during the G20 meeting. But in Glasgow, Morrison and energy minister Angus Taylor will be doing so with virtually no diplomatic capital to play with.

Australia emerged as a major antagonist during the last round of UN climate talks, the COP25 conference held in Madrid in 2019, where Australia controversially fought for its right to use its leftover Kyoto Protocol emissions credits to meet targets under the Paris Agreement.

A refusal by the Morrison government to adopt a stronger 2030 emissions reduction target – with 2030 targets being a central focus of the COP26 talks – already puts Australia out of step with the expectations of its peers.

It also appears that Australia will deploy its ‘technology not taxes’ and the cringeworthy ‘the Australian way’ rhetoric on the global stage. The domestic audience already sees it as hollow messaging, the international audience is likely to view it as absurd.

As a middle-power, Australia carries enough economic and diplomatic clout to have its voice listened to during international negotiations, but it is also small enough to be sidelined when it positions itself as an outlier relative to international peers.

This means Morrison and Taylor have a narrow path to navigate to secure outcomes that they consider to be in Australia’s interests at the climate talks – but Morrison has strayed well beyond that path.

Australia has already refused to join international commitments to phase out coal use and reduce methane emissions – a potent greenhouse gas – seeing Australia remain on the outer of international collaboration on climate action.

Morrison’s attendance at the G20 talks saw him become the target of open angst from French president Emmanuel Macron. Macron didn’t mince his words, saying directly that he ‘knew’ that Morrison had lied to him over an Australian agreement to purchase French-designed submarines.

The submarine fiasco will have an ongoing impact on Australia’s relationships with many international peers who will now be distrustful of Australia’s dealings – including several other European countries having expected flow-on benefits from the abandoned $90 billion submarine deal.

United States president Joe Biden has openly and repeatedly apologised to Macron over the way the AUKUS partnership and the cancellation of the French submarine contract was handled – apologies made necessary due to the “clumsy” way – as Biden described it – Australia dealt with the situation.

While the angst over the submarine deal is obviously not directly related to Australia’s climate policies – they will weigh on the desire of countries traditionally counted as allies to come to Australia’s defence during the COP26 talks, as Morrison and Taylor seek potential concessions for Australia in Glasgow.

It will likely see Australia align itself with an unusual set of bedfellows, as it did in Madrid, including China, Russia, Brazil and Saudi Arabia, who have all adopted similar views around the ongoing role of fossil fuels and minimising the importance of reducing emissions in the near term.

Australia was singled out for criticism by other countries at the Madrid talks, for going against the spirit of the Paris Agreement – time will tell whether Morrison’s “plan” for zero net emissions will spell a change of tune in Glasgow, but it already appears unlikely.

See our Glasgow Diary report: Glasgow Diary: “COP26 is our last best hope to keep 1.5° in reach“