The business plans of European coal burning utilities do not contain the necessary intermediate targets to deliver on their announced net zero pledges, with not a single business plan containing all of the necessary milestones.
These are the major findings from a new report published this week by Europe Beyond Coal and think tank Ember – which is also endorsed by ten other organisations – and which analysed the near-term plans of 21 Europe-based coal-burning utilities, sixteen of which have pledged to reach net zero by 2050.
But the analysis finds that less than half will achieve the promised 2030 European Union and OECD coal exit, and none have committed to a 2035 exit from unabated fossil gas electricity production. Theavailable data shows that all 21 utilities will be operating fossil gas power plants in the EU and OECD beyond 2035.
Disappointingly, even though the group of utilities will comfortably quadruple wind energy and solar power capacity from 88GW in 2020 to 428GW by 2030, they will nevertheless fall far short of the minimum six-fold global growth and acceleration required.
“Not one European coal utility analysed by this report is making plans to meet all science-based milestones to limit climate change to 1.5 degrees,” said Kathrin Gutmann, Europe Beyond Coal campaign director.
“If Europe is to do its part for climate action and exit coal by 2030, and have a fossil-free, renewables-based power system by 2035, these companies need to show near-term plans to close coal and fossil gas plants, and massively scale up the build-out of wind and solar power generation.
“All the talk of mid-century targets is just fluff so long as their business plans have no way of delivering on them.”
The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Net Zero Emissions by 2050 roadmap (NZE) calls for all unabated coal plants in advanced economies to be phased out by 2030, and in all economies by 2030. Fossil gas must be phased out by 2035 with zero emissions electricity reaching 100% in advanced economies by 2035 and globally by 2040.
Similarly, the IEA’s NZE calls for renewable electricity generation to more than triple from 2020 levels to account for 60% of total global electricity generation by 2030. Within this, wind and solar generation will need to grow globally at least six-fold between 2020 and 2030.
Of the 21 utilities analysed in the report, 16 have pledged to reach net zero emissions by 2050 at the latest, however five of those “pledged” utilities have actually failed to yet align their coal phase-out dates with the 2030 and 2040 benchmarks.
“There’s growing consensus among governments of advanced economies that a clean electricity supply by 2035 is crucial to realising net zero emissions by 2050, but that’s not being reflected in the business plans of European utilities,” said Sarah Brown, lead author and senior energy and climate analyst at Ember.
“These urgently need to be aligned with the International Energy Agency’s net zero roadmap if we want to keep global heating below 1.5 degrees and escape the energy price and supply crises caused by volatile fossil fuels.”
“Each of these companies knows very well what is required of them to deliver on their net zero pledges, so the gaping hole between their so-called ‘ambition’ and what they actually intend to deliver is very revealing,” said Kaarina Kolle, another lead author of the report.
“It’s time to draw a line in the sand: if companies do not align their business plans with the intermediate milestones required to deliver on their net zero pledges, financial institutions providing them with support must intervene.”
