The far right are at it again. Not content with energy minister’s Angus Taylor mysterious and quickly debunked “analysis” of Labor’s energy policy released earlier this week, the Institute of Public Affairs has followed it up with a doomsday document looking at the impact of net zero targets.
The short summary of its “analysis” is that if Australia pursues a net zero target by 2050 then we are done for. It is designed specifically to scare the be-jeezus out of voters in several key Queensland and other coal rich electorates. Like many IPA documents, it is complete nonsense.
The IPA, however, are not to be ignored. For a “think-tank” on the far right margins of Australia’s political discourse, they are given an extraordinarily big platform on which to air their views.
They figure constantly, of course, on the likes of Sky News and the rest of the Murdoch media, but because of the pressure on “balance” at the ABC they get a strong run on its flagship programs, although it is hard to see where left wing loonies are given equal air time.
The IPA and its brethren, of course, would disagree.
According to the likes of Murdoch’s Andrew Bolt, the description of left wing loonies would include NSW treasurer and energy minister Matt Kean, and anyone else who has thought for more than a few seconds about whether trashing the environment is good for the economy. Or people. Even Scott Morrison is too far left for their liking.
The other important thing to remember about the IPA is its infiltration of the federal Coalition government.
The IPA’s former policy director, Tim Wilson, is a Liberal MP and, quite laughably, the deputy minister for emissions reduction. In other words, he’s second in charge of a portfolio the IPA doesn’t think should exist.
Other IPA alumni in the Coalition include Senator James Patterson, a former deputy executive director, while the links between the IPA, the Coalition, and big business run deep, and have done for decades.
And it should be remembered that the Coalition has followed the IPA policy wish list almost to the letter, or at least it has tried to: Dumping the carbon price, killing the RET, trashing institutions like the Climate Authority, the Clean Energy Finance Corp and ARENA.
What the IPA does not like is the Coalition’s net zero target for 2050, even if it is largely irrelevant in its current form because there are no meaningful interim targets or policy roadmaps.
But the IPA sees “net zero” as a threat to the industries it and its donors favour most: Fossil fuels. Its new analysis tells us that a ban on new coal, gas and oil projects in Australia would eliminate some $274 billion of new investment, which is the equivalent to 13.5% of Australia’s annual GDP.
It says this corresponds to an estimated 478,673 jobs put at risk, equating to approximately 3.6% of Australia’s total workforce.
Gosh.
What this document – misleadingly titled “The economic and employment consequences of net zero emissions by 2050 in Australia” – completely ignores is what would take the place of the fossil fuel projects that are to be abandoned.
Apparently, nothing at all. The IPA has failed to identify a single job, or investment in technology that may replace the oil, gas and coal projects apparently foregone. To describe the analysis as lazy would give it credit beyond its worth.
Which makes you wonder: If you asked an IPA member to change their shirt and tie (it’s black tie darling, did you forget?), does an IPA member then go to the event bare-chested, or do they change shirts?
The Australian economy, and firstly its electricity grid, is going through its own change of wardrobe. It won’t happen abruptly, but it needs to happen quickly.
There’s a huge pipeline of green energy and industry projects – led by billionaires and equally deep pocketed international investors, encouraged by some smart state governments, even Coalition ones – that will likely dwarf those of the fossil fuel industry.
And they will have long-term prospects, and benefits, both in terms of investment, economic gains and environmental improvements. And, of course, in jobs.
Kean, the mad lefty loony of the NSW Coalition government, has already gathered way more than $100 billion of potential projects for that state’s transition from coal to renewables in his carefully structured transition to green energy.
Similar stories are unfolding in other states, and the scale of the green energy projects being put forward by the likes of Andrew Forrest and Mike Cannon Brookes, and even many of the world’s oil majors, is simply phenomenal.
Even the International Energy Agency, for long the conservative bastion of fossil fuel geopolitics, acknowledges the need and the benefits of the clean energy switch. And unlike the IPA, it’s not going bare chested or even hairy chested into this debate.
Its document, Net Zero by 2050: a Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector, talks of a narrow window of opportunity and huge benefits if those opportunities are seized. Including in jobs. Millions of them.
Which of course, is not what the IPA or its donors want us to do… or even mention or know about. Net zero analysis.
