The man at the head of the transmission network that provides the backbone to the South Australian grid has provided some insight into the remarkable and speedy green energy transition of the state’s grid, which is regarded as a world leader in the integration of wind and solar technologies.
Simon Emms , the CEO of Electranet, says the state will have effectively transformed from near zero renewables in 2007 to 100 net renewables by 2027, when – as seems likely – the state meets its newly accelerated target.
“We’re on track to achieve that target,” Emms told a session at the All Energy conference in Melbourne on Wednesday. “Our challenge will be maintaining that once we get there because of the increased load that is coming.”
This year, South Australia became the second grid in the world to be promoted to what the International Energy Agency describes as Phase 5 of the renewable integration ladder.
But Emms points out that Denmark – the first – is able to draw the equivalent of 100 per cent of its maximum demand from connections to other grids. In South Australia, the current connection to Victoria allows for just 25 per cent of its maximum demand to imported or exported.
“So what that means for South Australia is we have to be a lot more self reliant. And ultimately, South Australia is the test lab for the whole NEM (National Electricity Market,” Emms told Renew Economy in an interview later.
That self-dependence will be relieved with the connection of the new Project EnergyConnect, the new transmission link to NSW. The first stage of the project, linking South Australia to Buronga in the south-west of NSW, and into the Victoria grid, will add 150 MW of import and export capacity when it starts operating at the end of this month.
When it is complete it will add a total of 750 MW of export and import capacity, lifting many of the restrictions that the state has limited its renewable potential.
Emms says that it is the state’s historic transmission backbone that has allowed it to streak ahead of other states in terms of renewables. The coal fired power stations that were closed in 2016 were located near Port Augusta, some 400 kms of the major load centre around Adelaide.
The two transmission lines that were built to deliver that power have now been transformed into renewable energy super-highways. “Because we had so much transmission in a renewable energy zone, really allowed South Australia to get moving faster than some reasons that they didn’t have the transmission in place,” he says.
That link is now near saturation, making a nonsense of the Coalition’s claims to be able to add nuclear to the Port Augusta site without new transmission, and meaning that more transmission will be needed to tap into yet more renewable energy projects, and to supply the big industries which are heading to the state.
According to Emms, the state currently has around 400 MW of industrial load, but is getting inquiries for another 2,000 MW, some of it centred around mining operations at Olympic Dam and for new magnetite iron ore projects – essential for green steel – but also from data centre operators and other energy intensive businesses.
“The rule of thumb is that for every one megawatt of load that you need three megawatts of renewables. So, if we get 2000 megawatts of load, that’s 6000 megawatts of renewables. So you can see it is, is grid changing for South Australia,” he says.
South Australia’s grid is also unique in the world because it is the only gigawatt scale grid where rooftop solar sometimes produces more than enough electricity to meet state demand. Last week it reached a peak of 112.9 per cent for one trading period, when the excess was exported to Victoria or stored in batteries.
“We’re now living in a world where our largest customer – the local distribution network – is also our largest generator,” Emms says.
Volatility in supply and prices is now a fact of life. And while clearly renewables have lowered average wholesale prices and often send prices into negative territory, very high priced events – and therefore overall high prices – will remain a feature while the dependence remains on gas to fill in the gaps of supply.
But Emms says the introduction of new loads, and more wind and solar to maintain that 100 per cent net renewable level will mean that the grid will be used more efficiently.
“In South Australia, if you’ve got an average demand of 1400 megawatts and a peak demand of over 3000 MW you can see our load factor – which is average demand divided by your peak – it’s under 50%,” he says.
“So, on average, the grid is working at 50% of the capacity. So by getting these large industrial loads connected, we can actually make the grid work harder. So the cost of the grid get dispersed over a larger number of electrons, and that drives the per unit cost down.”
And Emms points out that the dominance of rooftop solar, and the lack of transmission capacity – renewables on that line are already constrained – means that the Coalition’s plans for a small modular reactor at Port Augusta, at the site of the old coal fired power station, do not make sense for the state.
If, some time in the future – in a couple of decades – SMR technology can demonstrate low costs and flexibility, it could have a role in replacing existing wind and solar farms that is nearing the end of life. But not before.
For an in depth look at South Australia and how Electranet is managing its role in one of the more remarkable and successful energy transitions, look out for the interview in this week’s episode of the Energy Insiders podcast which will be published on Friday.
