“Facts, not politics:” Kean fights Coalition attempts to silence him, but will he stand alone?

Climate Change Authority chair Matt Kean has thrown the federal Coalition’s words back in its face as he fights attempts by the LNP energy spokesman Ted O’Brien to silence his analysis on the would-be government’s nuclear power policy.

An extraordinary dispute has erupted since the CCA released on Monday its analysis of the emissions impact of the Coalition’s stated plans to delay the closure of coal generators, burn more gas, and tear up wind and solar contracts as it waits for commercial small modular reactors to be invented and large scale nuclear power plants to be built.

The CCA analysis, that it will ruin Australia’s climate targets and result in up to two billion tonnes of extra emissions, is hardly controversial – it’s based on the very modelling that the Coalition uses to justify its nuclear power policy. If you burn more fossil fuels, it’s seems obvious to observe that it will result in more emissions.

But the Coalition has attempted to silence the CCA and Kean – a former state Liberal government energy minister and treasurer – first by threatening to sack him, and even to disband the CCA, the agency it defenestrated and then ignored for nearly a decade while in government.

The Coalition has already attacked agencies such as the CSIRO and the Australian Energy Market Operator, who have repeatedly pointed out the cost and impracticalities of waiting for nuclear in Australia’s grid, and have taken issue with the latest parliamentary report into nuclear that also notes it is too slow and too expensive.

These threats, particularly the brazen one against the CCA, should disturb the renewable energy industry, and all Australians, particularly in the lead up to a federal election that hangs in the balance, with the Coalition now seen as equally likely as Labor to be gain power, even if in a minority government.

The Coalition has form, of course, from the Abbott years through to the Morrison administration that cancelled the carbon price, sought to scrap the renewable energy target, and tried unsuccessfully to eliminate institutions such as the CCA, the CEFC and ARENA.

It now seems emboldened by the tactics of the new Trump-Musk administration in the US, which is systemically seeking to destroy key government agencies, scrap climate and clean energy programs, remove “climate” from the government lexicon, and seek judicial retribution against anyone who tries to stand in their way.

The Coalition – at the urging of the fossil fuel industry – has already promised a similar menu in Australia, bringing wind and solar to a halt, stopping new transmission links, and removing environmental considerations from regulatory decisions.

It comes as the fossil fuel industry launches new campaigns against renewables, as the Murdoch tabloids and its toxic commentators reach new levels of hysteria and bile against climate science and activists, as Big Oil retreats from renewables targets and even Australian banks abandon their attachment to global net zero initiatives.

In a letter of complaint sent to Kean, O’Brien accuses the CCA of punishing an “inappropriate political critique” of his nuclear plans. “Australians deserve an energy debate grounded in facts, not politics,” O’Brien concluded.

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Kean responded quickly with his own letter challenging O’Brien to point out any errors in the CCA report, which he had failed to do.

“I also note public comments by your colleagues suggesting reprisals against the Authority in the event of a change of government,” Kean wrote.

“This represents a very concerning threat to the Authority’s independence. I seek your assurance that the conscientious scientists, economists and policy analysts who work for the Authority will be able to undertake their work without such attempts to chill their advice going forward.

“Your correspondence notes: ‘Australians deserve an energy debate grounded in facts, not politics’. On this we are in furious agreement; enabling this is the core rationale for the Authority’s publication of this report.”

Kean has played a critical part in Australia’s energy transition, masterminding a renewable energy roadmap for the country’s slowest moving and most coal dependent state, NSW.

In doing so, Kean managed to bridge the ideological divide between Liberals and the Nationals, mostly by pointing out that regions have more to gain from clean energy projects than they do from fossil fuels.

The federal Coalition, however is a different beast to its NSW counterparts, dominated as it is by the Queensland LNP, full of climate deniers, coal industry backers, and nuclear boosters. The ranks of moderates within the Liberal Party have dwindled and appear to have little say in policy development.

“I won’t be bullied,” Kean told Renew Economy on Wednesday, after tweeting much the same thing earlier in the day. “I will continue to be an advocate for the environment and protecting it for future generations. Science has provided a roadmap to do that and I will continue to advocate for it.”

But will Kean stand alone? Australia, as Climate 200 convenor and energy expert Simon Holmes a Court underlined in the latest interview on the weekly Energy Insiders podcast, is now clearly at a fork in the road on its energy choices.

The Coalition has made it clear that it wants to cap renewables at around 49 per cent of total generation. It’s spelled out clearly enough in the same modelling that supports its nuclear rollout and betrays its impact on emissions.

Australia is already at 40 per cent, and the large scale renewables already locked in by construction starts, commissioning and new contracts should take the country to 50 per cent, if not beyond, over the next 12 to 18 months.

Is the industry ready to accommodate another investment freeze, or does it somehow imagine finding ways to garner favour and exemptions from a Coalition government that would allow some fortunate developers to go ahead with their projects.

Labor last year made a savvy choice in choosing Kean to take over as CCA. It’s still not clear why the authority pulled its punches on its recommendations for the country’s 2035 targets, although the official explanation is the complications created by the new Trump administration and its decision to pull out of Paris.

But science is science, so maybe it is gearing up for a more ambitious target. That will have to wait post election. In the meantime, the industry – and Labor, the Greens, and the so-called climate independents – shouldn’t let Kean stand alone as he faces up to the Coalition bully-people.

Federal energy minister Chris Bowen did offer his support on Wednesday: “The Liberals are showing their petty arrogance in saying that they will sack Matt Kean,” he noted in a media event.

“They are showing that they cannot handle the truth, they cannot handle facts, they cannot handle science, they cannot handle criticism because their policy is a mess, and they don’t like being told.” 

The CEC, meanwhile, has launched a campaign against renewable misinformation, which is to be applauded. The industry it represents could start with taking on the LNP directly – there is actually a lot to lose.

And if the industry – and that includes indivdual developers – don’t decide to do something now, when will they? The fossil fuel industry isn’t holding back, why should they?

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