South Australia has absolutely smashed its electricity demand records, but also the contribution from wind and solar in the extraordinary heatwave that has cooked the south-east of the country – but thankfully not the grid – in recent days.
According to Geoff Eldridge, an energy expert from Global Power Energy NEMLog, native (or underlying) demand in South Australia hit an unprecedented peak of 4,235 megawatts (MW) at 1.30 pm (AEST) on Tuesday – absolutely smashing the previous peak of 3,832 MW set on January 8 by more than 10 per cent.
Fortunately, the contribution of wind and solar also hit a new peak at the same time – of 3,956 MW – also beating its previous record of 3,481 MW set on January 8 by more than 10 per cent.
A similar story was told in Victoria, which suffered under its highest ever temperatures on Tuesday of close to 50°C, and where native demand peaked at a new high of 12,028 MW at 3.25pm (AEST), beating the peak of 11,197 MW set on January 9 in another heat wave.
These are not just coincidences. Native demand includes production of rooftop solar and consumption “behind the meter”, and so is different to grid demand.
Rooftop solar was meeting around 45 per cent of overall demand, but a significant amount of it was being consumed in homes with the air conditioning on high, reducing stress on the grind.
As renewable energy engineer and modeller David Osmond noted in a separate LinkedIn post, wind and solar performed reduced residual demand by 28 per cent and 58 per cent respectively, demonstrating that they are “doing more than just saving fuel.”
4th highest ever demand on the NEM as a whole, with wind & solar reducing residual demand by 30%
South Australia leads the country, and the world, in the integration of wind and solar, which accounted for an average 75 per cent of state demand in the last 12 months, and is expected to reach 100 per cent “net” renewables by the end of next year.
It also has the highest levels of rooftop solar – nearly one in every two houses – and this technology alone more than met overall state demand for several hours on each of Christmas Day and Boxing Day last month, sending “operating demand” to record lows of minus 257 MW, as we reported here.
See also: Negative demand: The new grid reality in a state where half of all homes have rooftop solar
“Another run of hot days across southern Australia is keeping demand elevated, with the system operating securely and reliably,” Eldridge notes. South Australia averaged 35.5°C over the past 24 hours to 18:30 AEST, peaking at 43.5°C in Adelaide. parts Victoria hit record highs averaged 27.6°C, with 43.4°C recorded in Melbourne.
“Against that backdrop, both SA and Vic posted sharp lifts in native (underlying) demand, alongside new highs for renewable output and dispatchable availability,” he said.
He also noted that the National Electricity Market, the main grid that covers the eastern states, also logged its 3rd-highest native demand on record, and the third time above 40,000 MW.
As renewable energy engineer and modeller David Osmond noted in a separate LinkedIn post, wind and solar performed reduced residual demand in Victoria and South Australia by 28 per cent and 58 per cent respectively, demonstrating that they are “doing more than just saving fuel.”
He said wind and solar reduced residual demand across the entire NEM by 30 per cent.
The fact that rooftop solar met a lot of that demand meant that South Australia did not hit new peaks of grid demand.
And in the evening, because there was a lot of wind, and so more competition in the market, prices were generally held at prices around $100/MWh.
That was in contrast to Monday evening, which saw sustained prices of around $20,000/MWh seen a day earlier when the owners of peaking gas plants and diesel generators took advantage of the lack of competition and sought to pocket a year’s revenue in a single day, and pretty much succeeded.
South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas noted that demand on the state’s network was “extraordinary” but still off the peaks seen in other times.
“So for as long as that trajectory continues, there’s no suggestion of any risk at this stage,” he told ABC Radio.
Victoria also hit a new record for native demand, peaking at 12,028 MW at 3.25pm (AEST), beating the peak of 11,197 MW set on January 9 in another heat wave. In Victoria, operational demand also hit a new peak of 10,147 MW at 5pm, beating the previous peak of 9,851 MW set in December, 2024.
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