It’s a strange time in Australia’s renewable energy sector.
Despite finally having federal government support and clear targets, the Clean Energy Summit felt oddly… neutral. Not defeated, not euphoric. Just cautiously optimistic.
For over a decade, the industry has felt variable. We were either changing the world or being squashed by naysayers and ultra-conservatives. Maybe neutrality is a sign of maturity, a sensible new normal? Personally, I don’t think that’s the full story.
We’ve long pushed to be seen as the most credible and economically viable way forward for powering Australia… and clean. In part it feels we’re finally there.
The federal Coalition’s curious nuclear policy was defeated and “82% renewables by 2030” is genuinely being targeted.
Yet despite various state and federal government targets supporting emissions reduction and renewables, policy settings are tough, and we’re critically short of transmission and network capacity.
This year has been dynamic. Rapid policy changes in Queensland. Confusion over the Victorian Transmission Plan, which included many onshore REZs but little capacity.
Ongoing, there are broad delays and endless studies. It’s been a lot and has generally reduced investor confidence, increased costs and created delays.
As a developer, the sense that you’ll finally build your 10-year-old project and generate green energy is like being promised Christmas presents, only to be wrapped in so much red tape that can’t get to the tree.
But there is light breaking through the clouds.
Following significant work, the NSW planning process – arguably Australia’s most complex – is improving. The alignment of the energy and environment portfolios under Penny Sharpe has helped prioritise pragmatic decision-making that both protects vulnerable species and enables climate-fighting clean energy.
In Queensland, treasurer and energy minister David Janetzki is increasingly working with industry towards being Australia’s eastern energy anchor. Victoria is listening to industry feedback on transmission.
Federally, the expanded Capacity Investment Scheme announcements continue to put the government’s money where its mouth is. While the Albanese government could do more, the benefit of finally having clear targets and a supportive government can’t be overstated.
For us survivors who’ve been in renewables longer than a decade – who battled Tony Abbott’s old guard, navigated endless change and backed renewables before they were cool, competitive or considered sensible – stoicism and irrational optimism have been crucial.
Cutting through the noise and seeing the big picture has been key to our success and our sanity.
Despite it all, I’m excited and optimistic. To me, the big-picture future couldn’t look brighter.
Coal – which with gas still powers about 60% of the National Electricity Market – will shut down. Plants are not just dirty but old, unreliable and expensive. It’s not if, but when. Within 10 years it’ll largely be gone.
Simultaneously, electric vehicles and hybrids are gaining traction. Brands like BYD offer cost-effective alternatives to constant petrol price increases. Saul Griffith’s dream of “electrify everything” is taking hold.
Energy demand in Australia is growing like water hyacinth, a plant which grows so aggressively it’s banned in Australia. It starts slowly but eventually explodes, covering the entire pond in just days.
Unless we act now, the energy sector won’t be ready when the tipping point hits.
New generation needs to cover both coal’s massive gap and new demand. Small-scale nuclear is prohibitively expensive, and decades from at-scale commercial readiness. Large-scale nuclear is too expensive and can’t plug the gap in time.
Gas will play a role as a dispatchable gap-filler – it’s too expensive as primary generation, and supply chains are a risk.
Renewable energy, backed by storage like batteries, is the only mass-scale option that’s fast, flexible and cost-effective enough to keep Australia’s lights on and businesses running. Fortunately, it happens to be clean too.
I’m originally South African. I’ve lived many days where, eight hours a day, all power – including lights – went off because new generation wasn’t built fast enough. The impact cannot be overstated. It’s a politician’s nightmare.
One day someone important will wake up and realise Ross Garnaut’s impassioned view – that “we are, for the time being, on a path to comprehensive failure” – is true.
They’ll realise that unless we genuinely start rapidly cutting major inhibitors to new energy generation and transmission development, energy security is a real risk.
When that day comes, the real transition will begin. Australia will have no choice but to build the many projects we’ve long held back – the alternative will be unacceptable.
But, then it will be fast, chaotic and hard.
Power prices will jump. Australian’s will suffer from the pace of change. Real legacy will be hard to create. Renewable energy will undoubtedly be blamed by Murdoch press for the challenges.
We’ll look back wishing we had done more sooner, rather than letting Barnaby’s band distract us with more disinformation.
So let’s get cracking.
Rather than focusing on the problems, let’s focus on the policy statements. On powering Australia with clean, cost-effective energy. On working with Australians to resolve their fears, mitigate impacts and create legacy.
Developing renewables is currently hard, but we will get there.
I truly believe that one day many of the challenges we face in trying to build renewable energy – even as climate impacts worsen – will disappear.
As Baz Luhrmann wrote in Everybody’s Free to Wear Sunscreen:
“Don’t worry… worrying is as effective as trying to solve an algebra equation by chewing bubblegum. The real troubles are apt to be things that… blindside you at 4:00 pm on some idle Tuesday.”
Let go of past baggage, put earmuffs on for today’s noise, and get ready for that Tuesday when the world will change.
Keep solving the problems, doing win–win deals, and genuinely engaging the community. Be courteous – especially to those you don’t agree with – and work toward systemic improvements that benefit every stakeholder.
Despite our different approaches, we’re all trying to achieve the same things.
Most of all: plan, prepare, and get ready for the tidal wave of the real renewable energy transition.
I’m grabbing my surfboard – it would be nice to have friends for the ride.
Shane Quinnell is head of development at WestWind (NSW & QLD) – one of Australia’s most successful renewable energy developers. The views expressed in this article are his own and not the views of WestWind
