Of all the fascinating bits of data to emerge from the last month in Australia’s main electricity grids and the analysts who pore over the details, this one stuck out:
Australia, says Rystad Energy’s David Dixon, is set to break through 10 gigawatts of new wind and solar energisation in 2025 – the first time such a level has been reached.
This includes behind the meter solar and batteries – and requires a little bit of guesswork for the household components. But so far this year 9.04 GW of new capacity has been energised, although it should probably be made clear that not all of that capacity has necessarily been fully commissioned.
It highlights the fact that things are happening. The problem is that it is not yet happening consistently at the pace required to meet the federal government’s ambitious target of 82 per cent renewables by 2030.
Most analysts say this won’t be met, although if “energisation” is the criteria then the government might get close. And if it does, that will still represent a signifiant accomplishment.
But another piece of data dug up by Dixon is not so pretty. The 2025 calendar year is shaping up to be the lowest for new construction starts in a decade, since former prime minister Tony Abbott, apparently traumatised by having to ride his bicycle close to the solitary Rottnest wind turbine, tried to stop the rollout of renewables.
Dixon says it looks like less than 300 MW of new capacity will have begun construction in 2025, including the King Rocks wind project in W.A., and the extension of the Warradarge wind farm in the same state.
The 414 MW Uungula wind project in NSW poured the first of its concrete foundations in October, but there has been work going on at the site for more than a year, so is counted in the 2024 data.
Some progress can be expected in the coming few weeks, with three wind projects getting close to reaching financial investment decision, and a go-ahead for construction.
The Palmer and Carmody Hill wind projects in South Australia have lined up off-take agreements and connection approvals, and are now just putting the finishing touches on their finance agreements.
The smaller Waddi wind project in W.A. is also getting to close to FID, and federal energy minister Chris Bowen will be hoping other wind and solar projects offered underwriting agreements in the first two generation tenders under the Capacity Investment Scheme will get their skates on.
As we discuss in another story, utility scale PV and wind assets generated a total of 5,271 GWh in November, a jump of 28% from the 4,107 GWh produced in November 2024. With the addition of rooftop solar, this took the total production to just over 9,000 GWh.
That took the share of renewables to more than 50 per cent, for the second month in a row. And it’s the third month in a row that renewables produced more than coal.
The test will be when it can do that over autumn and winter, as well as the more favourable seasons of spring and summer.
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