11.4 million EVs are expected on America’s roads by 2025. Will the grid be ready?

With a broader range of market options and supporting infrastructure, the U.S. electric-vehicle market is on the verge of a breakthrough. By 2025, America will likely have 11.4 million EVs on the road, with a market value of over $400 billion.

This growth in EV adoption will create complexity for grid operators and other electricity market stakeholders. In GTM Research’s new report, The Impact of Electric Vehicles on the Grid: Customer Adoption, Grid Load and Outlook, these complexities are discussed and analyzed in order to provide insight into how customer adoption and grid load will unfold.

Around $3 billion of federal incentives have supported the growth of the U.S. EV market to date. Many states have also offered their own incentives. Furthermore, EV adoption is supported by improving economics and a growing sentiment that electrified transport can support decarbonization.

“A price and energy cost analysis of conventional, hybrid and electric vehicles illustrates that the EV has the lowest lifetime cost, even in a low-oil-price environment,” said Timotej Gavrilovic, the author of the report.

However, questions about grid impacts still remain. “The impact of EVs on the electricity grid, estimated at 1.4 terawatt-hours in 2015, depends on how quickly consumers and the utility infrastructure can adapt to this growing market,” Gavrilovic said.

Factors including policy, incentives and overall renewables penetration present challenges in different U.S. geographies and may impact the regions’ respective grid operations. “California and Hawaii are among the first geographies facing the most prodigious challenges resulting from renewable and EV penetration. These challenges led them to increase their efforts to innovate in demand-side management (DSM). EVs are just one of many possible technological solutions in the DSM toolbox that can support overall renewable and decarbonization goals,” said Gavrilovic.